ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: THREE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#921 Postby RL3AO » Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:16 am

tarheelprogrammer wrote:
I did not debate safety reasons. Simply see a TC in my opinion without a name and wondered why. It is what it is though. Anyone got an answer as to why this is not a TC?


Center of circulation is elongated and not well defined.
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Re: ATL: THREE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#922 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:18 am

RL3AO wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:
I did not debate safety reasons. Simply see a TC in my opinion without a name and wondered why. It is what it is though. Anyone got an answer as to why this is not a TC?


Center of circulation is elongated and not well defined.


Thanks it looks like a TC to me, but if recon can get out there we shall see.
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Re: ATL: THREE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#923 Postby NDG » Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:19 am

So this has been the fixes on the COC by the NHC for the past 12 hrs:

24N 89.2W
24.4N 89.5W
24.5N 89.9W
24.8N 90.1W
25.4N 90.3W

It gives an average heading of 325 deg, but moving more NNW during the past 6 hrs.
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Re: ATL: THREE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#924 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:19 am

Only a matter of time before it's named. IMO

tarheelprogrammer wrote:
RL3AO wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:
I did not debate safety reasons. Simply see a TC in my opinion without a name and wondered why. It is what it is though. Anyone got an answer as to why this is not a TC?


Center of circulation is elongated and not well defined.


Thanks it looks like a TC to me, but if recon can get out there we shall see.
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Re: ATL: THREE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#925 Postby RL3AO » Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:20 am

Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:
RL3AO wrote:
Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:Hammy may well have been correct with her early call on a subtropical storm.
It dont look like this storm has much wind speed around the centre. Atm it looks
all outta radius gales.


Recon and model analysis show basically zero temperature gradient across the system. It's lopsided but I don't see any reasons to justify calling it subtropical.


I have been looking at private marine ascat data, not noaa but usually quite accurate
all i was seeing is 10/15 kts within the elongated centre perimeter and 35kts well away
from centre. TBH RL3AO it looks a sheared mess on ir. likely a good thing really could
be a much worse scenario.


Yes, it is a sheared mess, but nothing else was really be expected from this. As to continue on the tropical vs subtropical thing. Here's the definition from the NHC.

"Subtropical Cyclone:
A non-frontal low-pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones. Like tropical cyclones, they are non-frontal, synoptic-scale cyclones that originate over tropical or subtropical waters, and have a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. In addition, they have organized moderate to deep convection, but lack a central dense overcast. Unlike tropical cyclones, subtropical cyclones derive a significant proportion of their energy from baroclinic sources, and are generally cold-core in the upper troposphere, often being associated with an upper-level low or trough. In comparison to tropical cyclones, these systems generally have a radius of maximum winds occurring relatively far from the center (usually greater than 60 n mi), and generally have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of convection."

Is it sheared? Yes. Are the winds away from the center? Yes. Is there a temperature gradient (aka baroclinic sources)? Not even a hint of one. That makes it tropical.
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Re: ATL: THREE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#926 Postby RL3AO » Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:26 am

Excuse the crude drawing. The new convective burst appears to be helping to focus the broad rotation on the northern end.
Image
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Re: ATL: THREE - Models

#927 Postby wxman22 » Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:27 am

To be fair the Euro does show the system moving more north also in the current time frame, it doesn't show it making a west turn until later this evening.The parallel 0z Euro is further west, it shows the system making landfall around Freeport fwiw.
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Re: ATL: THREE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#928 Postby sphelps8681 » Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:29 am

This is from the National Hurricane Center 4:00am update discussion. It is part of it but you can see the rest on their website.

The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on partial scatterometer
overpasses and continuity from the previous advisory. Significant
strengthening is unlikely due to strong vertical shear caused by an
upper-level trough over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and
entrainment of dry air into the system. However, the large-scale
models suggest slight strengthening before landfall, and thus the
intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory. One
change from the previous advisory is that it now appears more
likely that the system would become a subtropical cyclone than a
tropical cyclone due to the current structure of the low and
interaction with the aforementioned trough.
That being said,
development into a tropical cyclone remains possible.
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Re: ATL: THREE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#929 Postby GCANE » Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:30 am

RL3AO wrote:Excuse the crude drawing. The new convective burst appears to be helping to focus the broad rotation on the northern end.
Image


Yup, the circulation is definitely tucking under the hot spot.
I think we have something.
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Re: ATL: THREE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#930 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:30 am

Recon data down or they just not leave?
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Re: ATL: THREE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#931 Postby GCANE » Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:32 am

GCANE wrote:
RL3AO wrote:Excuse the crude drawing. The new convective burst appears to be helping to focus the broad rotation on the northern end.
Image


Yup, the circulation is definitely tucking under the hot spot.

I think we have something.

Higher layers of cirrus forming on each tower burst.
Also see small gravity waves on top of the canopy.
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Re: ATL: THREE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#932 Postby BobHarlem » Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:34 am

This system really hasn't moved west much at all overnight, the forecast track is probably either going to remain the same or tweaked slightly to the east. Rain all the way to the Panhandle to the east though, landfall point and parts west/south won't see much of anything.

(Just opinion, not official by any means)
Last edited by BobHarlem on Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:35 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: THREE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#933 Postby sphelps8681 » Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:34 am

tarheelprogrammer wrote:Recon data down or they just not leave?


Nothing has been posted yet. Cycloneye was trying to get someone else to post the data.
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Re: ATL: THREE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#934 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:35 am

i hear you RL3AO and i have seen gyres in the wespac with similar looking windfields.
As you know they are latent heat systems but classifiable as a legit TC?
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Re: ATL: THREE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#935 Postby RL3AO » Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:36 am

sphelps8681 wrote:This is from the National Hurricane Center 4:00am update discussion. It is part of it but you can see the rest on their website.

The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on partial scatterometer
overpasses and continuity from the previous advisory. Significant
strengthening is unlikely due to strong vertical shear caused by an
upper-level trough over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and
entrainment of dry air into the system. However, the large-scale
models suggest slight strengthening before landfall, and thus the
intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory. One
change from the previous advisory is that it now appears more
likely that the system would become a subtropical cyclone than a
tropical cyclone due to the current structure of the low and
interaction with the aforementioned trough.
That being said,
development into a tropical cyclone remains possible.



If they call it subtropical then I'll just go ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

The model analysis shows a warm core (at 500mb) and practically no temperature gradient anywhere near the storm (at 850 mb).

Image
Image
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Re: ATL: THREE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#936 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:36 am

This northern shift is expected i believe as it wraps around the ULL. I expect it to start moving west before making landfall. Still really worried this could be a Humberto situation. I understand thats very extreme, but the circulation is already there and its broad. When the shear goes away, this thing will blow up instantly. Look at the east side of this system, this thing is a coiled spring. I still stand by a Houston landfall.
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Re: ATL: THREE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#937 Postby Steve » Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:36 am

It drizzled over night and it's been breezy but not blustery. It looks like we will be getting our first real band shortly. 2017 getting rolling now.

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... 1&loop=yes
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Re: ATL: THREE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#938 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:37 am

sphelps8681 wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:Recon data down or they just not leave?


Nothing has been posted yet. Cycloneye was trying to get someone else to post the data.


The maps are stuck in their departure on Tropical Tidbits
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Re: ATL: THREE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#939 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:38 am

RL3AO wrote:
sphelps8681 wrote:This is from the National Hurricane Center 4:00am update discussion. It is part of it but you can see the rest on their website.

The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on partial scatterometer
overpasses and continuity from the previous advisory. Significant
strengthening is unlikely due to strong vertical shear caused by an
upper-level trough over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and
entrainment of dry air into the system. However, the large-scale
models suggest slight strengthening before landfall, and thus the
intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory. One
change from the previous advisory is that it now appears more
likely that the system would become a subtropical cyclone than a
tropical cyclone due to the current structure of the low and
interaction with the aforementioned trough.
That being said,
development into a tropical cyclone remains possible.



If they call it subtropical then I'll just go ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

The model analysis shows a warm core (at 500mb) and practically no temperature gradient anywhere near the storm (at 850 mb).

Image
Image


So they think its going to wrap up the ULL now?
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Re: ATL: THREE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#940 Postby vbhoutex » Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:41 am

:uarrow: :uarrow: RL3AO I'm not sure I agree . What I see is what appears to be what we would say is an attempt at generating a center but if I look closer I''m not seeing any closing off at the surface. I am still seeing a broader gyre. What you are pointing to is definitely interesting, but I can't in my own mind yet tie it to the surface. Appears to be more mid level to me. What that does possibly indicate is that we are beginning to see the stacking of this system which if it continues would do what you are saying you are seeing. LOL, am I waffling here? :lol: :roll:
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