ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[RL3AO]

When you zoom out and speed up the loop, it does appear to be getting more organized on the northern end the gyre.

[Stormcenter]

I don't see that on the NHC's predicted track.

This northern shift is expected i believe as it wraps around the ULL. I expect it to start moving west before making landfall. Still really worried this could be a Humberto situation. I understand thats very extreme, but the circulation is already there and its broad. When the shear goes away, this thing will blow up instantly. Look at the east side of this system, this thing is a coiled spring. I still stand by a Houston landfall.

[Aric Dunn]

When you zoom out and speed up the loop, it does appear to be getting more organized on the northern end the gyre.

Its trying to tighten up that elongated new center that has been there since the previous and present burst of convection. Will take some time

[wxman22]

This northern shift is expected i believe as it wraps around the ULL. I expect it to start moving west before making landfall. Still really worried this could be a Humberto situation. I understand thats very extreme, but the circulation is already there and its broad. When the shear goes away, this thing will blow up instantly. Look at the east side of this system, this thing is a coiled spring. I still stand by a Houston landfall.

I agree, the models show the system moving more to the north at the current time frame, its not suppose to make a westward turn till later this evening...

[GCANE]

CoC jumped north closer to the hot spot

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 200930.jpg

[Frank P]

It drizzled over night and it's been breezy but not blustery. It looks like we will be getting our first real band shortly. 2017 getting rolling now.

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... 1&loop=yes

Yeah we've had a couple of bands flow thru thus far, tide looked to be up at least a foot or so... radar shows some pretty good bands approaching the south Chandelier Islands, and if it continues would dump some copious amounts of rain all along the MS coast and SE LA... fun times ahead... good test run to kick off the season for sure...

[Aric Dunn]

The new and current llc is still in the process of absorbing the old one from last night. Run the visible zoomed in and you can see the old one being stretched and will be gone soon and the west winds will fill in the void of the elongated curc cause by the absorption.

[Stormcenter]

Looks like the center is under the convection now and convection is expanding. IMO

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-02-24-1

[srainhoutx]

:uarrow: RL3AO I'm not sure I agree . What I see is what appears to be what we would say is an attempt at generating a center but if I look closer I''m not seeing any closing off at the surface. I am still seeing a broader gyre. What you are pointing to is definitely interesting, but I can't in my own mind yet tie it to the surface. Appears to be more mid level to me. What that does possibly indicate is that we are beginning to see the stacking of this system which if it continues would do what you are saying you are seeing. LOL, am I waffling here?

Regarding the "tucking comments": While it is possible, these sheared broad monsoonal gyres with an elongated broad surface circulation are typically influenced by the low level flow versus a vertically stacked Tropical Cyclone. The Bermuda Ridge is influencing the generally Easterly flow at the surface. It appears to me in the 24 frame visible GOES 16 imagery the general motion is to the NW and possibly WNW of the elongated low. Shear would probably need to collapse for this mess to organize under the deeper convection to the N and E.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I don't see that on the NHC's predicted track.

This northern shift is expected i believe as it wraps around the ULL. I expect it to start moving west before making landfall. Still really worried this could be a Humberto situation. I understand thats very extreme, but the circulation is already there and its broad. When the shear goes away, this thing will blow up instantly. Look at the east side of this system, this thing is a coiled spring. I still stand by a Houston landfall.

The Euro has been pretty consistent with it.

The NHC has been splitting the two

[Tireman4]

:uarrow: RL3AO I'm not sure I agree . What I see is what appears to be what we would say is an attempt at generating a center but if I look closer I''m not seeing any closing off at the surface. I am still seeing a broader gyre. What you are pointing to is definitely interesting, but I can't in my own mind yet tie it to the surface. Appears to be more mid level to me. What that does possibly indicate is that we are beginning to see the stacking of this system which if it continues would do what you are saying you are seeing. LOL, am I waffling here?

Well, David, it is breakfast time...see what I did there? I do see what you mean, however...

[TheStormExpert]

So as of the 5am advisory this is expected to be Subtropical?

[Frank P]

The new and current llc is still in the process of absorbing the old one from last night. Run the visible zoomed in and you can see the old one being stretched and will be gone soon and the west winds will fill in the void of the elongated curc cause by the absorption.

Overall motion from best I can tell is NW-NNW?

[SouthDadeFish]

In regard to the subtropical designation, there is still a source of baroclinicity in the upper-troposphere, especially near 200 hPa. As you pointed out for the definition of a subtropical TC, it cannot have frontal characteristics (low-level baroclinicity), which it does not. Both the large tropical gyre and the upper-tropospheric trough have played an important role in the potential genesis of this TC. I could see the NHC going either way here.

[RL3AO]

So as of the 5am advisory this is expected to be Subtropical?

Which wouldn't change anything. This storm is a flooding threat. That's pretty much it.

[GCANE]

Smaller Cu Nims firing now on the NW side of the CoC

[djones65]

Do subtropical cyclones count towards ACE?
I personally believe that it should, but I think I remember reading that it does not.
Has that changed?

[Aric Dunn]

The new and current llc is still in the process of absorbing the old one from last night. Run the visible zoomed in and you can see the old one being stretched and will be gone soon and the west winds will fill in the void of the elongated curc cause by the absorption.

Overall motion from best I can tell is NW-NNW?

Considering its jumping all over the place ... you can only look at the overall convection from last night to now and a slow migration to the nw to nnw ..

[SouthDadeFish]

To follow up, here is the 06Z GFS analysis of the 350 K isentropic surface. There is clearly a large upper-tropospheric PV anomaly just to the NW of the location of PTC 3, and thus a source of baroclinicity. Clearly, this isn't your typical deep tropical genesis pathway (like Bret, for example). This also isn't your typical subtropical genesis pathway due to the tropical gyre that existed earlier. But you have to pick one name, so which is it?

[SueOrleans]

Steady rain for at least the last couple of hours here on the Westbank of the Greater New Orleans area. Looks like we're in for a rainy couple of days. Hoping my neighbors to the south don't suffer too much with the water.