ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

So as of the 5am advisory this is expected to be Subtropical?

Which wouldn't change anything. This storm is a flooding threat. That's pretty much it.

Which wouldn't change anything. This storm is a flooding threat. That's pretty much it.

Totally agree.

[SouthDadeFish]

So as of the 5am advisory this is expected to be Subtropical?

Which wouldn't change anything. This storm is a flooding threat. That's pretty much it.

Yes, this is the important part in this discussion. Subtropical TCs can still dump a lot of rain too!

[GCANE]

Seeing a bit of a hook on WV starting to form around the CoC.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/wv-animated.gif

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

So as of the 5am advisory this is expected to be Subtropical?

Which wouldn't change anything. This storm is a flooding threat. That's pretty much it.

Yes, this is the important part in this discussion. Subtropical TCs can still dump a lot of rain too!

They can also whip up very heavy ground swells over water.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Seeing a bit of a hook on WV starting to form around the CoC.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/wv-animated.gif

ULL is moving WSW. These storm is lighting up. CoC getting more life, going to be an interesting day

[WeatherGuesser]

From NWS-PAH (6/20, 0321):

A tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico will slowly move north-northeast this week. Moisture from the remnants of this system will impact our region by Thursday and last through at least Saturday morning. Heavy rainfall is a possibility during that time, but specific timing and location of the heaviest rain is still in question.

[BobHarlem]

Tornado in Franklin county, in the Big Bend. Looks like this system is spinning things up already (Well to the east)

[PTrackerLA]

Not sure if this has been posted but there's now a 1min imagery GOES-16 floater over #3. Really helpful in this situation!

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso2-02-48-1

[sphelps8681]

New update from NHC on Advisories:

000
WTNT23 KNHC 201433
TCMAT3

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032017
1500 UTC TUE JUN 20 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD TO HIGH
ISLAND TEXAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF HIGH ISLAND TO SAN
LUIS PASS TEXAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HIGH ISLAND TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF HIGH ISLAND TO SAN LUIS PASS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S. GULF COAST FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS
COAST TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 90.5W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT

[cycloneye]

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the
circulation of the low has become better organized since yesterday,
but still lacks a well-defined center. The central pressure appears
to have fallen to around 999 mb based on observations from NOAA buoy
42001, and some deep convection has begun developing a little closer
to the low's circulation center. For now the system is being
maintained as a potential tropical cyclone, however, the system
could be classified as a tropical or subtropical cyclone later
today.

The current intensity is maintained at 35 kt based largely on
continuity pending an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission
into the system later this morning. Only limited strengthening is
forecast before the system moves inland due to the strong vertical
shear over the cyclone caused by an upper-level low centered off
the Texas coast. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
previous one and is close to the intensity consensus aid.

The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 320/09 as the
there are still multiple low-level cloud swirls circulating around a
mean center, and some erratic motion is still possible until a
better-defined center forms. However, the system should be steered
generally northwestward over the next 36 hours or so as it interacts
with the aforementioned upper-level low and then turns more
north-northwestward by 48 hours as the system begins to recurve
around the mid-level ridge to the east. The NHC track forecast is a
little faster than the previous one in the short range, and shows
the system moving inland over western Louisiana and eastern Texas by
48 hours. After that time, the system should recurve into the
mid-latitude flow and accelerate northward and northeastward across
the lower Mississippi Valley and into the southern and central
Appalachians on days 3 and 4 before dissipating.

The primary hazard from this disturbance is expected to be heavy
rainfall over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast.
Given the nature of the circulation and the fact that wind and rain
hazards extend well north and east of the center, users are
encouraged not to focus on the details of the track forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 25.9N 90.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 21/0000Z 26.7N 91.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 21/1200Z 27.4N 92.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 28.6N 93.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 30.1N 94.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 23/1200Z 34.0N 92.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 24/1200Z 37.5N 84.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[Frank P]

From NWS-PAH (6/20, 0321):

A tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico will slowly move north-northeast this week. Moisture from the remnants of this system will impact our region by Thursday and last through at least Saturday morning. Heavy rainfall is a possibility during that time, but specific timing and location of the heaviest rain is still in question.

NNE?

[Alyono]

system still is sheared. The convection is still being displaced from the center

[Stormcenter]

Looks like it's moving more northward than westward the last 6 hours or so.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-02-24-1

[Steve]

From NWS-PAH (6/20, 0321):

A tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico will slowly move north-northeast this week. Moisture from the remnants of this system will impact our region by Thursday and last through at least Saturday morning. Heavy rainfall is a possibility during that time, but specific timing and location of the heaviest rain is still in question.

NNE?

That's Paducah, Kentucky on the way up and out.

[Blow_Hard]

system still is sheared. The convection is still being displaced from the center

Rain has picked up the last 30 mins here in Panama City. Had been just a very light, steady rain and is currently a little more intense. Up to now haven't really had any measurable precip.

[HurricaneBrain]

Tropical Storm warnings have extended into SETX.

[GCANE]

More west winds evident now on the south flank of the CoC.
Cu Nims closing in all around the CoC.
Looks like it is working off a 2500 CAPE Ridge

[Texashawk]

Seems like the center's trying to tighten up now. Also looks to be moving back W - WNW over the last hour or so.

[SunnyThoughts]

Tornado warning in Apalachicola

[wxman57]

I see that the NHC adjusted their track farther west, to the TX/LA border. I think they'll adjust it a bit more west over the next couple of advisories, eventually closer to Galveston or just east of Galveston Bay. Circulation may be well-enough defined now for classification as a TS. I don't think this is subtropical, it's a sheared TS.