ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneBrain]

[Texashawk]

The cone cometh

[Stormcenter]

If you follow the convection it sure still looks to be moving more northward than westward but hey what do I know.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-02-24-1

[WeatherGuesser]

Kinda weird to be expecting effects 500-600 miles inland, but it won't be the first time. Corn and soy beans are in the ground and popping up, so this could either help or hurt depending on how much rain falls.

[HurricaneBrain]

I agree. Galveston has become more included in the proj. path each time the track is updated.

I see that the NHC adjusted their track farther west, to the TX/LA border. I think they'll adjust it a bit more west over the next couple of advisories, eventually closer to Galveston or just east of Galveston Bay. Circulation may be well-enough defined now for classification as a TS. I don't think this is subtropical, it's a sheared TS.

[cycloneye]

Plane is flying towards PTC-3.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

If you follow the convection it sure still looks to be moving more northward than westward but hey what do I know.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-02-24-1

Yeah that is due to the shear i think. Try and watch the LLC, the softer clouds near the surface

[GCANE]

Mid-layer tropospheric heating looking much better than this morning.
Picked up another 0.5C and better organized.

[RL3AO]

To be fair the Euro does show the system moving more north also in the current time frame, it doesn't show it making a west turn until later this evening.The parallel 0z Euro is further west, it shows the system making landfall around Freeport fwiw.

Here's the last three days of runs verifying tomorrow night. They seem to be converging on each other, instead of the GFS converging to the Euro.

[Alyono]

The cone cometh

stop using the cone. It is the single most meaningless thing regarding TC forecasting. It tells you nothing of the uncertainty, nor does it tell you where the impacts will occur.

If you want the real uncertainty, refer to the graphics that wxman57 posted yesterday

[SunnyThoughts]

State of emergency issued by Gov. in state of Alabama.

[RL3AO]

The cone cometh

stop using the cone. It is the single most meaningless thing regarding TC forecasting. It tells you nothing of the uncertainty, nor does it tell you where the impacts will occur.

If you want the real uncertainty, refer to the graphics that wxman57 posted yesterday

If someone asked for a single map of the most serious impacts from this storm, it would be this.

[AnnularCane]

I thought it was supposed to leave at 5:30 this morning.

[Texashawk]

The cone cometh

stop using the cone. It is the single most meaningless thing regarding TC forecasting. It tells you nothing of the uncertainty, nor does it tell you where the impacts will occur.

If you want the real uncertainty, refer to the graphics that wxman57 posted yesterday

Oh, I know. It just sounded catchier than 'the categorical tropical effect radius cometh'.

[WeatherGuesser]

State of emergency issued by Gov. in state of Alabama.

Why? 'Bama doesn't even seem to be in the Cone until five days out as a D, and that's only the far NW corner.

[KimmieLa]

Not sure if this has been posted but there's now a 1min imagery GOES-16 floater over #3. Really helpful in this situation!

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso2-02-48-1

Thank you for sharing!

[CFLHurricane]

State of emergency issued by Gov. in state of Alabama.

Why? 'Bama doesn't even seem to be in the Cone until five days out as a D, and that's only the far NW corner.

One doesn't need to be in the cone to feel disastrous effects, especially with a lopsided system such as this.

[SunnyThoughts]

State of emergency issued by Gov. in state of Alabama.

Why? 'Bama doesn't even seem to be in the Cone until five days out as a D, and that's only the far NW corner.

Why? Because up to 12 inches of rain is expected, flooding is a given. All the major impacts of this system is on the Eastern side.

[psyclone]

Worth noting that the heaviest expected QPF resides outside of the watch/warning area over MS/AL. the tropical watches/warnings are based on wind probs but we all know a 40 or 50mph TS isn't a wind threat on land where frictional impacts will result in even lower winds. The threat is heavy rain for those on land. Follow the convection!

[Stormcenter]

FL., AL, MS. & LA are the main impact areas. IMO

State of emergency issued by Gov. in state of Alabama.

Why? 'Bama doesn't even seem to be in the Cone until five days out as a D, and that's only the far NW corner.

Why? Because up to 12 inches of rain is expected, flooding is a given. All the major impacts of this system is on the Eastern side.