ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[bohaiboy]

Do any of the models indicate a stall in east Texas ala Allison with 36" of rain? afraid that high pressure may move eastward blocking the progression of the storm after it moves onshore.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 201521
AF308 0203A INVEST HDOB 04 20170620
145300 2939N 08920W 5497 05093 0226 -021 //// 102020 020 /// /// 05
145330 2937N 08920W 5498 05093 0226 -027 //// 100019 020 /// /// 05
145400 2934N 08919W 5498 05092 0225 -025 //// 103019 020 /// /// 05
145430 2932N 08919W 5496 05093 0225 -025 //// 106018 020 /// /// 05
145500 2930N 08918W 5498 05091 0224 -025 //// 111016 017 /// /// 05
145530 2927N 08918W 5498 05091 0223 -025 //// 116018 018 /// /// 05
145600 2925N 08918W 5496 05092 0223 -025 //// 124017 018 /// /// 05
145630 2923N 08917W 5497 05090 0222 -024 //// 109019 020 /// /// 05
145700 2920N 08917W 5498 05087 0221 -025 //// 104019 019 /// /// 05
145730 2918N 08917W 5498 05087 0220 -025 //// 108019 020 /// /// 05
145800 2916N 08916W 5498 05086 0219 -025 //// 104018 019 /// /// 05
145830 2913N 08916W 5497 05086 0218 -025 //// 096018 019 /// /// 05
145900 2913N 08916W 5497 05086 0218 -025 //// 096018 018 /// /// 05
145930 2913N 08916W 5497 05086 0218 -025 //// 096018 018 /// /// 05
150000 2913N 08916W 5497 05086 0218 -025 //// 096018 018 /// /// 05
150030 2913N 08916W 5497 05086 0218 -025 //// 096018 018 /// /// 05
150100 2913N 08916W 5497 05086 0218 -025 //// 096018 018 /// /// 05
150130 2913N 08916W 5497 05086 0218 -025 //// 097018 019 /// /// 05
150200 2904N 08915W 5496 05080 0214 -025 //// 121027 028 /// /// 05
150230 2902N 08914W 5492 05092 0222 -025 //// 120029 029 /// /// 05
$$

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 201525
AF308 0203A INVEST HDOB 05 20170620
150300 2900N 08914W 5498 05090 0224 -024 //// 123029 030 /// /// 05
150330 2858N 08914W 5498 05086 0225 -020 //// 125028 028 /// /// 05
150400 2856N 08914W 5499 05087 0224 -012 //// 135029 030 /// /// 05
150430 2854N 08913W 5494 05098 0225 -012 //// 141028 028 /// /// 05
150500 2852N 08913W 5498 05089 0225 -013 //// 141027 028 /// /// 05
150530 2850N 08913W 5498 05092 0226 -012 //// 140026 027 /// /// 05
150600 2847N 08912W 5496 05094 0224 -005 //// 138024 026 /// /// 05
150630 2845N 08912W 5499 05088 0224 -017 //// 133030 030 /// /// 05
150700 2843N 08912W 5501 05091 //// -017 //// 140031 033 /// /// 05
150730 2841N 08912W 5497 05089 0224 -015 //// 146034 036 /// /// 05
150800 2839N 08912W 5507 05084 //// -012 //// 146038 039 /// /// 05
150830 2838N 08912W 5496 05101 0232 -011 //// 144036 038 /// /// 05
150900 2836N 08913W 5496 05111 0236 -003 //// 141035 036 /// /// 05
150930 2836N 08915W 5495 05107 0244 -004 //// 139037 038 /// /// 05
151000 2838N 08916W 5495 05099 0239 -015 //// 143035 036 /// /// 05
151030 2838N 08916W 5495 05099 0239 -015 //// 143035 036 /// /// 05
151100 2838N 08916W 5495 05099 0239 -015 //// 143035 036 /// /// 05
151130 2838N 08916W 5495 05099 0239 -015 //// 143035 036 /// /// 05
151200 2838N 08916W 5495 05099 0239 -015 //// 143035 036 /// /// 05
151230 2838N 08916W 5495 05099 0239 -015 //// 143035 036 /// /// 05
$$

[PTrackerLA]

FL., AL, MS. & LA are the main impact areas. IMO

Why? 'Bama doesn't even seem to be in the Cone until five days out as a D, and that's only the far NW corner.

Why? Because up to 12 inches of rain is expected, flooding is a given. All the major impacts of this system is on the Eastern side.

If you need more evidence this is expected to be a lopsided system just look at the heaviest rainfall totals which are projected to be well east of Lafayette while the center could make landfall on the TX/LA border. Luckily we've been able to dry out a bit locally so we can easily handle 3"-4" for now.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

I thought it was supposed to leave at 5:30 this morning.

Since this system was not a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm,that mission was canceled.

[Frank P]

Sat Loops shows that shear is pounding the tops off those storms near the center... going naked soon!

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 201533
AF308 0203A INVEST HDOB 07 20170620
152300 2850N 08913W 5496 05103 0237 -015 //// 139033 034 /// /// 05
152330 2849N 08912W 5495 05103 0236 -018 //// 133034 035 /// /// 05
152400 2847N 08912W 5498 05103 0232 -015 //// 133034 035 /// /// 05
152430 2845N 08912W 5496 05089 0221 -013 //// 139032 035 /// /// 05
152500 2844N 08912W 5498 05091 0224 -012 //// 137033 034 /// /// 05
152530 2842N 08912W 5496 05097 0227 -015 //// 132039 040 /// /// 05
152600 2840N 08912W 5498 05094 0227 -008 //// 129040 041 /// /// 05
152630 2839N 08912W 5498 05094 0226 -014 //// 126040 042 /// /// 05
152700 2837N 08912W 5496 05095 0226 +005 //// 128040 041 /// /// 05
152730 2836N 08914W 5498 05093 0226 +013 +013 122039 041 /// /// 03
152800 2837N 08916W 5498 05092 0225 +014 +014 120040 041 /// /// 03
152830 2839N 08916W 5498 05092 0225 +008 //// 123038 040 /// /// 05
152900 2841N 08917W 5496 05097 0227 +007 //// 128037 037 /// /// 05
152930 2843N 08917W 5498 05094 0228 -001 //// 128039 041 /// /// 05
153000 2845N 08917W 5497 05098 0230 +006 //// 128035 040 /// /// 05
153030 2847N 08917W 5496 05098 0231 -014 //// 132031 031 /// /// 05
153100 2849N 08917W 5500 05097 0232 -002 //// 132033 035 /// /// 05
153130 2850N 08916W 5498 05099 0232 +007 //// 133036 036 /// /// 05
153200 2851N 08914W 5499 05098 0233 +009 //// 136036 037 /// /// 05
153230 2850N 08913W 5497 05100 0233 -003 //// 133037 037 /// /// 05
$$
;

[GCANE]

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 20th day of the month at 15:26Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5308
Tropical Depression: Three (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 01 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: 15:24Z on Tuesday
Coordinates: 28.8N 89.2W
Location: 96 statute miles (155 km) to the SSE (147°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
Pressure Altitude: 4,870 meters (15,978 feet)
Flight Level Wind: From 130° at 35 knots (From the SE at ~ 40.2 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Air Temperature: -2°C (28°F)
Flight Level Dew Point: Not available, probably because the dew point hygrometer was not working.
Weather (within 30 nm): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In and out of clouds
Radar Capability: Yes
D-value: 230 geopotential meters (755 geopotential feet)

[cycloneye]

[Janie2006]

Light to moderate rain has been falling for a few hours now, and radar indicates that it won't be stopping anytime soon. And I'm well away from the official warning area. I understand Gov. Ivey's decision given the rainfall we've already had in the last few weeks. The soil was already well-moisturized, so to speak. It won't take terribly much to really get the ball rolling. I think she's playing it safe and, looking at the current model output and rainfall potential it was the right call.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Sat Loops shows that shear is pounding the tops off those storms near the center... going naked soon!

That's what I'm seeing as well. Thought there might be a chance that shear was lessening this morning and it might be getting more organized faster than thought with the blowup of storms near the center but the loops show another story.

[Alyono]

State of emergency issued by Gov. in state of Alabama.

Why? 'Bama doesn't even seem to be in the Cone until five days out as a D, and that's only the far NW corner.

STOP RELYING UPON THE CONE

The cone does not state at all the area where the impacts will occur. This is even stickied

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 201544
AF308 0203A INVEST HDOB 08 20170620
153300 2849N 08912W 5492 05106 0232 -013 //// 136036 038 /// /// 05
153330 2847N 08912W 5498 05098 0231 -011 //// 135032 033 /// /// 05
153400 2845N 08912W 5499 05094 0230 -012 //// 131037 039 /// /// 05
153430 2844N 08912W 5494 05102 0228 -015 //// 127039 040 /// /// 05
153500 2842N 08912W 5499 05091 0226 -013 //// 127039 040 /// /// 05
153530 2841N 08911W 5498 05092 0224 +003 //// 132038 039 /// /// 05
153600 2839N 08911W 5496 05092 0223 +010 //// 133038 038 /// /// 05
153630 2837N 08911W 5498 05089 0222 +013 +013 133037 038 /// /// 03
153700 2836N 08911W 5494 05093 0220 +013 +013 131038 038 /// /// 03
153730 2834N 08910W 5498 05086 0220 +013 +013 119039 040 /// /// 03
153800 2832N 08910W 5499 05084 0219 +012 +012 115038 040 /// /// 03
153830 2831N 08910W 5500 05083 0218 +012 +012 110039 040 /// /// 03
153900 2829N 08910W 5498 05086 0219 +012 +012 114039 041 /// /// 03
153930 2827N 08909W 5486 05097 0219 +012 +012 120038 041 /// /// 03
154000 2826N 08909W 5498 05087 0218 +013 +013 112036 037 /// /// 03
154030 2824N 08909W 5500 05083 0036 +012 +012 119036 038 /// /// 03
154100 2822N 08909W 5498 05086 0221 +008 +008 131037 041 /// /// 03
154130 2821N 08908W 5490 05099 0220 +014 +014 142041 049 040 015 00
154200 2819N 08908W 5491 05094 0220 +016 +016 145031 035 047 013 00
154230 2817N 08908W 5504 05077 0043 +017 +017 149033 037 047 009 03
$$
;

[cycloneye]

[Janie2006]

Ewww. Stickied.

Possibly off-topic, but a legitimate question: At what point do we begin a thread about impacts from "potential tropical cyclones", given that NHC is issuing watches and warnings on these systems? Knowing my luck it's been answered elsewhere and I'm wasting bandwidth.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 201553
AF308 0203A INVEST HDOB 09 20170620
154300 2815N 08908W 5630 04899 0055 +019 +019 138034 041 046 009 00
154330 2814N 08908W 5778 04690 0086 +024 +024 138038 042 047 009 00
154400 2812N 08907W 5924 04491 0094 +035 +035 138039 042 044 010 03
154430 2810N 08907W 6066 04297 0094 +043 +043 137036 038 044 009 00
154500 2809N 08907W 6209 04109 0093 +053 +053 137038 039 044 007 00
154530 2807N 08907W 6350 03924 0086 +062 +062 132041 042 042 007 00
154600 2806N 08906W 6488 03744 0088 +070 +070 128039 041 044 008 00
154630 2804N 08906W 6617 03588 0093 +077 +077 128042 043 044 009 00
154700 2803N 08906W 6784 03376 0089 +086 +086 132044 046 039 018 03
154730 2801N 08906W 6926 03203 0084 +094 +094 130045 047 047 017 00
154800 2800N 08906W 6972 03143 0069 +101 +101 140050 052 047 017 00
154830 2758N 08905W 6966 03146 0063 +105 +105 143045 050 045 015 00
154900 2757N 08905W 6973 03140 0076 +104 +104 138050 056 043 019 00
154930 2755N 08905W 6978 03132 0074 +105 +105 147051 055 048 016 03
155000 2754N 08905W 7040 03065 0082 +107 +107 142048 050 048 016 00
155030 2753N 08905W 7177 02904 0087 +109 +109 143047 054 037 036 00
155100 2751N 08904W 7299 02763 0093 +111 +111 144056 059 043 036 00
155130 2750N 08904W 7457 02577 0090 +114 +114 158052 054 044 027 00
155200 2749N 08904W 7590 02423 0077 +119 +119 157055 057 050 015 03
155230 2747N 08904W 7699 02304 0056 +129 +128 153053 057 049 009 00

[Tireman4]

State of emergency issued by Gov. in state of Alabama.

Why? 'Bama doesn't even seem to be in the Cone until five days out as a D, and that's only the far NW corner.

STOP RELYING UPON THE CONE

The cone does not state at all the area where the impacts will occur. This is even stickied

Amen sir!

[PTrackerLA]

12z GFS sticking with a western Cameron Parish landfall with more of a north track up the Sabine river as opposed to NW into Texas.

[cycloneye]

Very strong winds found by plane.
057 049 009 00