ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[RL3AO]

Ewww. Stickied.

Possibly off-topic, but a legitimate question: At what point do we begin a thread about impacts from "potential tropical cyclones", given that NHC is issuing watches and warnings on these systems? Knowing my luck it's been answered elsewhere and I'm wasting bandwidth.

Do you mean a thread about the impacts of this specific system (e.g rain, wind, flooding reports) or the sociological and psychological impacts relating to the NHC designating potential tropical cyclones?

If its the later, then here you go. viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118785

[cycloneye]

[PTrackerLA]

Very strong winds found by plane.
057 049 009 00

Gusts to 65mph?

[Aric Dunn]

Circ is finally becoming more defined though its naked and not moving all to much.

[Janie2006]

Do you mean a thread about the impacts of this specific system (e.g rain, wind, flooding reports) or the sociological and psychological impacts relating to the NHC designating potential tropical cyclones?

If its the later, then here you go. viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118785

Cheers, mate! I've gotten out of practice on S2K recently.

[RL3AO]

IMO, it looks well defined enough to name it Cindy.

[cycloneye]

RNT15 KNHC 201603
AF308 0203A INVEST HDOB 10 20170620
155300 2746N 08904W 7808 02183 0045 +139 +132 153050 052 050 008 00
155330 2745N 08903W 7964 02015 0048 +147 +135 154051 056 043 004 00
155400 2743N 08903W 8077 01899 0048 +159 +140 156041 046 042 005 03
155430 2742N 08904W 8264 01703 0052 +165 +146 144037 042 042 005 00
155500 2741N 08904W 8433 01531 0057 +171 +157 148030 036 037 005 00
155530 2739N 08905W 8610 01358 0061 +180 +169 156030 033 033 001 00
155600 2738N 08905W 8797 01179 0066 +185 +169 139026 032 032 001 00
155630 2736N 08905W 8971 01008 0069 +187 +173 137021 026 031 001 03
155700 2735N 08905W 9108 00872 0070 +190 +177 154017 024 021 001 00
155730 2734N 08905W 9267 00723 0068 +204 +186 157018 023 021 001 00
155800 2732N 08904W 9430 00571 0069 +212 +196 163017 019 020 002 00
155830 2731N 08903W 9573 00436 0066 +212 +203 154017 017 024 001 00
155900 2730N 08903W 9596 00413 0060 +222 +213 160017 018 021 002 00
155930 2728N 08902W 9596 00415 0062 +223 +216 164021 023 018 000 01
160000 2727N 08901W 9592 00415 //// +223 //// 162025 025 018 000 01
160030 2726N 08901W 9593 00415 //// +225 //// 160028 030 024 001 01
160100 2725N 08901W 9601 00407 //// +226 //// 155030 030 021 001 05
160130 2724N 08902W 9592 00414 //// +225 //// 154028 030 020 000 01
160200 2723N 08903W 9593 00413 //// +225 //// 150028 028 022 000 01
160230 2721N 08904W 9591 00413 //// +225 //// 148028 029 021 001 01
$$
;

[PTrackerLA]

Finally getting some cloud development on the western side of the LLC, I would be surprised if this is not Cindy by 4pm.

[Nimbus]

Should be getting a vortex message from recon soon, pretty tight pressure gradient near the center.

[Cuda17]

Circ is finally becoming more defined though its naked and not moving all to much.

I agree, almost looks like it might be moving wsw, probably my eyes playing tricks on me...
Here is a nice link to view the CoC (speed it up):
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso2-02-96-1

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I just stared at the CoC for a bit, 200 frames, looks stationary to me.

[OntarioEggplant]

If this doesn't get classified as a tropical storm today, then I have no idea what the NHC is doing. Any other year, this system already would have been classified. There has been a clear center of circulation for some time. A TC can still be a TC even if it's sheared.

This PTC thing is muddying the waters, introducing a lack of consistency, and confusing the public.

[Stormcenter]

Would not be surprised to see the center try to reform under that huge blob to the north of the exposed center. IMO

[cycloneye]

I have to go so who wants to continue?

[Stormcenter]

Yes looks like a no go right now.

I just stared at the CoC for a bit, 200 frames, looks stationary to me.

[LSU2001]

This PTC thing is muddying the waters, introducing a lack of consistency, and confusing the public.

I really like the Potential Cyclone designation and I like that the NHC can post warnings and watches as needed before actual naming. However, I have already seen some confusion with my local govt. and schools. I spoke to our safety director this morning about what phase we are in our TS/Hurricane plan which states that a Tropical Storm Warning activates closures and preps. He informed me that even though we are on TS warnings since it is not a named storm we are NOT activating/following our phased storm plan. After this event I will be discussing the need to amend our plan to take into consideration these type storms/Potential storms.
TIm

[Frank P]

Circ is finally becoming more defined though its naked and not moving all to much.

Just notice that the system sure is not moving very much attm... shear still pounding the stew out of it... lots of rain heading toward the north gulf coast for sure...

[tatertawt24]

IMO, it looks well defined enough to name it Cindy.

The center looks too exposed to be named yet imo. Doesn't there have to be steady convection over the LLC to be named?

[Tireman4]

Circ is finally becoming more defined though its naked and not moving all to much.

Just notice that the system sure is not moving very much attm... shear still pounding the stew out of it... lots of rain heading toward the north gulf coast for sure...

Boy if there were no shear, what could this system do...? Goodness

[CFLHurricane]

If this doesn't get classified as a tropical storm today, then I have no idea what the NHC is doing. Any other year, this system already would have been classified. There has been a clear center of circulation for some time. A TC can still be a TC even if it's sheared.

This PTC thing is muddying the waters, introducing a lack of consistency, and confusing the public.

I totally agree--public information should be as binary as possible. Either there is weather to prepare for or there isn't.

My only guess as to why this hasn't been named yet is that they are waiting for more convection to wrap around the center.