ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Frank P]

If you use this loop, click on 96 frame and speed it up, you can see that it appears the center to be moving off slowly to the NNW... or at least that's my opinion... http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... ed-ht-96-1

[caneman]

If you use this loop, click on 96 frame and speed it up, you can see that it appears the center to be moving off slowly to the NNW... or at least that's my opinion... http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... ed-ht-96-1

Looks that way to me. East Louisiana and Mississippi are going to get hammered

[JaxGator]

the Upper Level low appears to have full control of Cindy. She is getting pummeled with dry air and shear, thankfully. The rain threat is the main concern and not where the center comes ashore.

It's been a persistent bugger the past couple of days, but thankfully so. For those are some pretty heavy rain bands hitting the coast and inland areas from Louisiana to Florida. Texas will start to get on it too whenever Cindy will start its forecasted NW motion.

[SunnyThoughts]

Well I can't get the link to work, but apparently LA-1 is now not passable to Grand Isle

[CrazyC83]

Looks like we will get a wind increase next advisory. HH picking up some steady 50-60mph surface winds on several dropsonde's.

I would say 50 kt for the intensity based on those observations. Also the TS warning may need to be expanded westward as the strong winds are mostly NW of the center.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 210152
AF306 0303A CINDY HDOB 21 20170621
014200 2635N 09209W 8429 01496 //// +160 //// 007043 044 050 002 01
014230 2633N 09208W 8428 01498 //// +159 //// 005043 044 050 001 01
014300 2631N 09208W 8432 01496 //// +164 //// 002043 044 049 002 01
014330 2629N 09207W 8429 01495 0014 +165 +163 000042 044 047 001 00
014400 2627N 09206W 8429 01497 0016 +164 +163 358044 045 049 001 01
014430 2625N 09206W 8432 01492 0014 +165 +160 354044 045 048 002 00
014500 2623N 09205W 8429 01496 0014 +165 +161 355044 044 046 001 00
014530 2621N 09205W 8430 01494 0012 +165 +161 354042 044 046 001 00
014600 2620N 09204W 8429 01492 0012 +165 +162 352040 042 045 001 00
014630 2618N 09203W 8429 01495 0011 +166 +160 351039 040 045 001 00
014700 2616N 09203W 8429 01494 0011 +167 +159 352039 039 042 001 00
014730 2614N 09202W 8430 01494 0012 +166 +159 350039 040 042 000 00
014800 2612N 09201W 8429 01496 0011 +167 +157 349041 042 042 000 00
014830 2610N 09201W 8430 01495 0014 +164 +159 348039 041 043 000 00
014900 2608N 09200W 8429 01497 0014 +164 +157 348040 041 043 000 00
014930 2606N 09200W 8430 01493 0013 +165 +155 348039 040 042 000 00
015000 2604N 09159W 8429 01497 0014 +169 +149 347038 039 040 000 00
015030 2602N 09158W 8430 01498 0015 +168 +151 345039 039 042 000 00
015100 2600N 09158W 8429 01497 0013 +171 +151 344037 038 041 002 00
015130 2559N 09157W 8429 01500 0015 +169 +160 341036 037 038 000 00
$$
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[ROCK]

Looks like we will get a wind increase next advisory. HH picking up some steady 50-60mph surface winds on several dropsonde's.

I would say 50 kt for the intensity based on those observations. Also the TS warning may need to be expanded westward as the strong winds are mostly NW of the center.

I agree...that's almost 60 mph...hard to believe wow...

[abajan]

Well I can't get the link to work, but apparently LA-1 is now not passable to Grand Isle

That looks pretty serious. By the way, your link needs editing.

[abajan]

Well I can't get the link to work, but apparently LA-1 is now not passable to Grand Isle

That looks pretty serious. By the way, your link needs editing. It just needed a space between "Facebook" and the URL. For those who missed it, here it is: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid ... =3&theater

[SunnyThoughts]

Thanks Abajan, I appreciate you fixin it for me

[LSU2001]

Not to discount the seriousness of flooding, but the section of LA 1 between Grand Isle and Fourchon floods with just a strong south wind. But seeing waves on the road is pretty unusual. BTW power is out from Galliano to Fourchon so about 5,000 homes out.
Tim

[BRweather]

FWIW, the NAM 00z did initialize with the strongest winds in that NW quadrant

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 210202
AF306 0303A CINDY HDOB 22 20170621
015200 2557N 09156W 8431 01497 0016 +164 +164 338036 037 036 001 01
015230 2555N 09156W 8432 01497 //// +166 //// 335038 039 035 001 01
015300 2553N 09155W 8429 01501 //// +165 //// 336039 040 037 001 01
015330 2551N 09155W 8432 01497 0018 +169 +165 338037 039 037 001 00
015400 2549N 09154W 8430 01500 0018 +170 +159 335038 039 036 000 00
015430 2547N 09153W 8429 01503 0019 +169 +161 335039 040 036 001 00
015500 2545N 09153W 8433 01498 0020 +166 +163 338042 043 033 002 00
015530 2543N 09152W 8430 01502 0022 +165 +163 339041 042 031 000 00
015600 2541N 09151W 8430 01503 0024 +161 +160 340039 040 031 000 01
015630 2540N 09151W 8431 01504 0024 +162 +156 340037 039 028 001 01
015700 2538N 09150W 8430 01504 0024 +161 +158 342040 041 028 000 01
015730 2536N 09150W 8431 01503 0026 +165 +152 344039 041 025 001 00
015800 2534N 09149W 8433 01504 0026 +168 +144 340033 036 026 000 00
015830 2532N 09148W 8427 01510 0024 +173 +137 336031 033 025 000 00
015900 2530N 09148W 8432 01505 0027 +170 +138 335032 032 024 001 00
015930 2528N 09147W 8432 01505 0029 +168 +138 330030 031 026 000 00
020000 2527N 09147W 8426 01512 0032 +162 +144 330030 030 026 000 00
020030 2525N 09146W 8432 01509 0034 +160 +147 327030 031 026 000 00
020100 2523N 09145W 8428 01513 0034 +163 +144 323029 029 026 000 00
020130 2521N 09145W 8429 01513 0037 +162 +142 320029 030 024 000 03
$$
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[JaxGator]

Looks like we will get a wind increase next advisory. HH picking up some steady 50-60mph surface winds on several dropsonde's.

Good thing we have them out there tonight and anytime. Here's some of Joe B's thoughts from a couple of hours ago:

Joe Bastardi‏Verified account @BigJoeBastardi 2h2 hours ago
More
"pretty impressive gusts from rigs. Some well above surface though"

Almost 60mph gusts.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Rain is really drying up and dissipating as it tries moving into baton rouge and points westward. Maybe precip charts and forecast weren't all that crazy afterall. Here at the house we've had just over have an inch of light rain for the entire day. Even when radar has shown bright yellow bands moving into ascension the rain has been light. Latest hrrr run shows after this next blob moves through it really dries up early tomorrow morning as even more dry air gets entrained. Florida panhandle and Alabama get all the heavy stuff.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 210212
AF306 0303A CINDY HDOB 23 20170621
020200 2520N 09144W 8420 01524 0040 +160 +145 326027 029 /// /// 03
020230 2520N 09142W 8435 01506 0034 +164 +139 327026 027 021 000 00
020300 2522N 09141W 8428 01514 0034 +163 +141 326026 027 022 000 00
020330 2523N 09140W 8433 01505 0029 +168 +142 327027 030 023 000 00
020400 2524N 09138W 8432 01508 0029 +164 +152 320027 030 024 000 00
020430 2525N 09137W 8430 01507 0027 +167 +145 324025 026 025 000 00
020500 2526N 09136W 8429 01509 0026 +166 +151 322023 026 022 001 00
020530 2527N 09135W 8430 01507 0021 +176 +132 331027 027 022 000 00
020600 2528N 09133W 8431 01504 0019 +179 +132 332027 028 024 000 00
020630 2530N 09132W 8432 01502 0020 +175 +141 332028 029 024 000 00
020700 2531N 09131W 8430 01501 0019 +171 +150 333029 030 024 000 00
020730 2531N 09131W 8430 01501 0019 +170 +153 329029 030 025 000 00
020800 2533N 09128W 8429 01503 0017 +173 +155 327028 028 025 000 00
020830 2534N 09127W 8429 01502 0016 +173 +151 327029 030 026 000 00
020900 2535N 09126W 8428 01501 0015 +170 +159 320026 029 026 000 00
020930 2536N 09125W 8431 01497 0014 +171 +160 318025 026 027 000 00
021000 2538N 09123W 8429 01497 0014 +170 +163 314024 025 026 001 00
021030 2539N 09122W 8430 01495 0013 +170 +164 317024 025 026 000 00
021100 2540N 09121W 8430 01494 0009 +171 +158 318026 026 027 000 00
021130 2541N 09120W 8429 01494 0008 +172 +163 315024 027 028 000 00
$$
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[tropicwatch]

Rain is really drying up and dissipating as it tries moving into baton rouge and points westward. Maybe precip charts and forecast weren't all that crazy afterall. Here at the house we've had just over have an inch of light rain for the entire day. Even when radar has shown bright yellow bands moving into ascension the rain has been light. Latest hrrr run shows after this next blob moves through it really dries up early tomorrow morning as even more dry air gets entrained. Florida panhandle and Alabama get all the heavy stuff.

2.74 inches so far at my house in Panama City.

[TheStormExpert]

In the Atlantic, when's the last time we've had three named storms by June 20th? (Apologies if this has already been asked and answered, but it's a long thread!)

Last season.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Not to discount the seriousness of flooding, but the section of LA 1 between Grand Isle and Fourchon floods with just a strong south wind. But seeing waves on the road is pretty unusual. BTW power is out from Galliano to Fourchon so about 5,000 homes out.
Tim

Yeah for people that aren't familiar with the area the hwy basically was made in the middle of a bay. Water laps right up against it from both sides. Even has some areas where you can pull off and launch a boat from the side of the road. So like Tim said its not unusual at all for that area to flood.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 210222
AF306 0303A CINDY HDOB 24 20170621
021200 2542N 09118W 8430 01493 0005 +177 +154 313024 026 026 001 00
021230 2543N 09117W 8429 01493 0003 +178 +154 319024 025 027 000 00
021300 2545N 09116W 8430 01489 9998 +180 +157 315020 024 024 001 00
021330 2546N 09114W 8429 01488 9999 +180 +160 314018 020 025 000 00
021400 2547N 09113W 8429 01488 9999 +177 +162 305016 018 024 001 00
021430 2548N 09112W 8428 01488 9999 +176 +163 285012 015 024 000 00
021500 2549N 09111W 8432 01483 9996 +179 +165 280009 010 022 001 00
021530 2551N 09110W 8430 01485 9993 +180 +166 283007 008 021 001 03
021600 2552N 09109W 8429 01485 9993 +178 +170 296007 009 020 000 00
021630 2554N 09109W 8426 01485 //// +170 //// 281011 013 022 003 01
021700 2556N 09108W 8433 01481 9990 +179 +168 256009 011 020 001 03
021730 2557N 09108W 8433 01480 9990 +181 +167 258008 009 016 002 00
021800 2559N 09108W 8430 01484 9989 +182 +168 275006 006 018 000 03
021830 2600N 09109W 8426 01485 9988 +181 +171 260006 006 019 000 00
021900 2602N 09109W 8430 01480 9987 +182 +170 257007 008 015 001 00
021930 2604N 09109W 8429 01483 9985 +185 +170 253007 008 014 002 03
022000 2605N 09109W 8429 01480 9984 +185 +165 256009 009 016 000 00
022030 2607N 09110W 8430 01479 9984 +190 +164 254008 009 015 000 00
022100 2609N 09110W 8430 01481 9983 +189 +168 261007 008 017 000 00
022130 2610N 09111W 8430 01479 9982 +187 +167 270007 008 016 000 00
$$
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