2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[RL3AO]

Doubt any waves rolling off Africa will be able to get going next week since the MDR will start to feel the suppressed phase of the MJO.

There was also the possibility that these easterly waves were amplified a bit by last week's strong Kelvin wave passing through the Atlantic and Africa.

[Kingarabian]

Doubt any waves rolling off Africa will be able to get going next week since the MDR will start to feel the suppressed phase of the MJO.

There was also the possibility that these easterly waves were amplified a bit by last week's strong Kelvin wave passing through the Atlantic and Africa.

Yeah, most definitely. That's why I think it's still too early to say whether we will see an impressive active wave train with favorable conditions for the rest of the season.

[RL3AO]

Impressive wave in the GFS off Africa in about 4 days. You can see it with the AEJ. However, the GFS loses it in the Atlantic although the weak wave can be tracked through the Caribbean over the next couple weeks.

[Hammy]

Doubt any waves rolling off Africa will be able to get going next week since the MDR will start to feel the suppressed phase of the MJO.

There was also the possibility that these easterly waves were amplified a bit by last week's strong Kelvin wave passing through the Atlantic and Africa.

Yeah, most definitely. That's why I think it's still too early to say whether we will see an impressive active wave train with favorable conditions for the rest of the season.

This is a good point, but I will say that the four years that produced Atlantic MDR systems in June (1933, 1979, 2000, 2003) all had quite strong hurricanes in the MDR later in the season.

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF with two distinct low-level vorts associated with tropical waves in the MDR between the Lesser Antilles and Africa, the impressive MDR month of June continues...

[cycloneye]

12z GFS at long range has a Tropical Storm but we know the drill on these long range ones.

[tarheelprogrammer]

12z GFS at long range has a Tropical Storm but we know the drill on these long range ones.

It has actually had it for a few runs now.

[gatorcane]

18Z MU with a TS in 4 days from a wave that moves off Africa. Develops as soon as it hits the water.

[Siker]

18Z MU with a TS in 4 days from a wave that moves off Africa. Develops as soon as it hits the water.

It's been showing a weaker version of that for several runs now, along with its ensembles. No other model or ensemble set develops it as far as I can tell, including the Parallel GFS.

[GeneratorPower]

18Z MU with a TS in 4 days from a wave that moves off Africa. Develops as soon as it hits the water.

I wish we could all agree to call it the GFS. I've never heard any mainstream meteorologist use the term MU. If this is a reference to the model's origins, its antiquated and no longer accurate. It's confusing for new posters. What is the benefit of calling it something other than what it is?

[RL3AO]

18Z MU with a TS in 4 days from a wave that moves off Africa. Develops as soon as it hits the water.

I wish we could all agree to call it the GFS. I've never heard any mainstream meteorologist use the term MU. If this is a reference to the model's origins, its antiquated and no longer accurate. It's confusing for new posters. What is the benefit of calling it something other than what it is?

It's a certain promets not so nice term standing for "Model Uccellini"

[Hurricane Andrew]

18Z MU with a TS in 4 days from a wave that moves off Africa. Develops as soon as it hits the water.

I wish we could all agree to call it the GFS. I've never heard any mainstream meteorologist use the term MU. If this is a reference to the model's origins, its antiquated and no longer accurate. It's confusing for new posters. What is the benefit of calling it something other than what it is?

It's a certain promets not so nice term standing for "Model Uccellini"

Like the violin player?

[RL3AO]

I wish we could all agree to call it the GFS. I've never heard any mainstream meteorologist use the term MU. If this is a reference to the model's origins, its antiquated and no longer accurate. It's confusing for new posters. What is the benefit of calling it something other than what it is?

It's a certain promets not so nice term standing for "Model Uccellini"

Like the violin player?

Louis Uccellini, the director of the national weather service.

[Hurricane Andrew]

It's a certain promets not so nice term standing for "Model Uccellini"

Like the violin player?

Louis Uccellini, the director of the national weather service.

Ohhh, ok. I was quite confused, lol. Thanks!

[Alyono]

It's a certain promets not so nice term standing for "Model Uccellini"

Like the violin player?

Louis Uccellini, the director of the national weather service.

The same uccellini who when he ran ncep allowed his model to allow canes to plow through 500 mb ridges. The same uccellini who said you cannot use wind data to determine wind speed. The same uccellini who over nhc objections is forcing the new model uccellini down the communitys throat

[TheStormExpert]

00z GFS still showing it but I ain't buying it!

[GCANE]

Given Bret made it pretty far this early on, the 1005mb low spitting off Africa in 100 hrs looks interesting.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 2206&fh=12

[TheStormExpert]

06z GFS trended weaker with that what is likely a phantom storm coming off of Africa within the next week. GFS pulled this stunt last season several of times and failed.

[Kingarabian]

Like the violin player?

Louis Uccellini, the director of the national weather service.

The same uccellini who when he ran ncep allowed his model to allow canes to plow through 500 mb ridges. The same uccellini who said you cannot use wind data to determine wind speed. The same uccellini who over nhc objections is forcing the new model uccellini down the communitys throat

Yesterday's 00z run had a wave becoming a TS, then it plowed it straight into a strong high.

[ROCK]

18z GFS nada in the next couple of weeks..might have to wait until late July before another player...got spoiled with all this early action..