Strong Tropical Wave WSW of CV Islands (INVEST 94L is up)

[Hammy]

I'm personally waiting another day to see if the models maintain it, but certainly unusual for the GFS/Euro to show things this early, even if it turns out to be a phantom storm--it shows they're picking up something in the atmosphere that's more favorable than usual.

[weathaguyry]

18z GFS comes in a bit stronger, and the time frame lines up better with the Euro

[Siker]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017062518/gfs_mslp_wind_nafr_17.png

18z GFS comes in a bit stronger, and the time frame lines up better with the Euro

That's yesterday's 18z (June 25th).

[johngaltfla]

I'm personally waiting another day to see if the models maintain it, but certainly unusual for the GFS/Euro to show things this early, even if it turns out to be a phantom storm--it shows they're picking up something in the atmosphere that's more favorable than usual.

^This.

I want to see what happens when it gets 200-300 km off the coast and then watch model development.

[weathaguyry]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017062518/gfs_mslp_wind_nafr_17.png

18z GFS comes in a bit stronger, and the time frame lines up better with the Euro

That's yesterday's 18z (June 25th).

Oops

[cycloneye]

18z GFS has no development but moves it all the way thru MDR with good signature and brings plenty of rain for NE Caribbean for July 4-5

[cycloneye]

NHC dosen't bite at 8 PM TWO.

[cycloneye]

@MJVentrice
Slightly skeptical but it's not impossible! If it does develop it is going to slam into a suppressed CCKW phase later next week



 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/879480483234680832

[Hurricaneman]

Could be that the NHC is waiting until splashdown but in my unbiased opinion all the models are showing a phantom storm through covective feedback but who knows I'll wait until splashdown before saying for sure

[Hammy]

Could be that the NHC is waiting until splashdown but in my unbiased opinion all the models are showing a phantom storm through covective feedback but who knows I'll wait until splashdown before saying for sure

NHC has on several occasions mentioned chances days before a wave exits Africa--more than likely they're seeing if the Euro (which is more highly regarded) was a fluke or a trend--if it shows up a few more times I think we'll see it lemoned by this time tomorrow.

[blp]

NHC dosen't bite at 8 PM TWO.

Not surprising they usually take their time in that region since it will not be an immediate impact to land. I don't expect them to bite anytime soon. Hopefully we get some good ASCAT passes to help them pull the trigger. We don't have much else out in that region once it hits the water.

[cycloneye]

@RyanMaue
Advantage w/ECMWF upgrade or parallel runs, seems HRES op tropical wave off coast of Africa may be overdone or spurious. Still vigorous

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/879517428178452480

[Fego]

Well, well...

[Kingarabian]

Euro drops development as well, through 96hrs.

[Alyono]

the tell that the EC had a bad run at 12Z was how suddenly the cane appeared, and how suddenly it died

[TheStormExpert]

And just when the NHC bites the models drop development.

[GCANE]

Pretty strong MCS fired off over Senegal and spread across the west coast of Africa.
It created a decent anticyclone / UL Divergence.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to emerge into the
far eastern Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday. Some development of this
system is possible later this week before environmental
conditions become unfavorable for development over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

Wave has been introduced into the TWD:

A tropical wave extends its axis over Africa from 20N15W to
11N15W, moving west at 10-15 kt. This wave was found using
satellite imagery and model diagnostics. Scattered moderate
convection prevails along the northern portion of the wave mainly
north of 14N between 13W-18W.

[RL3AO]

Wave has been introduced into the TWD:

A tropical wave extends its axis over Africa from 20N15W to
11N15W, moving west at 10-15 kt. This wave was found using
satellite imagery and model diagnostics. Scattered moderate
convection prevails along the northern portion of the wave mainly
north of 14N between 13W-18W.

Looks like a different wave. They introduced the black line. The models were developing the red line.