2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[tarheelprogrammer]

That surface low, that GFS is showing coming off Africa in about 72 hrs, looks interesting.
It'll start will an UL HIgh just to its north and will track along to about midway in the Atlantic.
At that time, UL winds in the Atlantic look more favorable with no big ULL.
Once the wave gets to the islands, it looks like an anticyclone may develop over it.

I'm pretty sure that having 2 MDR storms form before July 1st would be a pretty significant indicator for an active hurricane season!

Good thing is that only the GFS op is showing this. The GFS para, ECMWF, and other models are not. CMC is showing that storm coming toward the SE though.

[weathaguyry]

GFS now showing a TS on Wednesday

[TheStormExpert]

GFS now showing a TS on Wednesday

But then weakens it instantly thereafter.

[blp]

If the CFS is to be believed it looks like a nice window will open up between 15-21 days for something to get going in the MDR.

[TheStormExpert]

That would be about the same time-frame that the CFS was loving for a potential potent hurricane in the MDR. Not to mention the extremely long-range GFS(days 14-16) is hinting at something getting going.

[Kingarabian]

Euro showing Don in 96hrs.



Let's see if the Euro Parallel keeps it when it runs.

[Siker]

Euro showing Bret in 96hrs.



Let's see if the Euro Parallel keeps it when it runs.

Think you missed two storms .

[gatorcane]

Euro showing Bret in 96hrs.

http://i.imgur.com/0vhmaBP.gif

Let's see if the Euro Parallel keeps it when it runs.

That would be "Don" if the Euro is right. Quite a wave for end-of-June that will be moving off Africa in a couple of days, you can see all of the vorticity using this loop:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

Conditions looks rather hostile once the wave moves further west away from Africa which is no surprise given it is only end-of-June.

[Kingarabian]

Euro showing Bret in 96hrs.

http://i.imgur.com/0vhmaBP.gif

Let's see if the Euro Parallel keeps it when it runs.

That would be "Don" if the Euro is right. Quite a wave for end-of-June that will be moving off Africa in a couple of days, you can see all of the vorticity using this loop:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

Conditions looks rather hostile once the wave moves further west away from Africa which is no surprise given it is only end-of-June.

Damn, my bad lol. Just woke up. I knew there was something off.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/879431904025616384




Indeed some ensemble support for tropical development right off coast of Africa later in week. HRES 9-km has a hurricane.

[tolakram]

Another likely phantom storm on the latest GFS run. This is behind the wave currently tagged yellow at 5 days.

[WeatherHoon]

00Z run still has it, but very weak. We'll see, but it looks terrible out in the Atlantic right now. Lots of dry air and wind shear. Curious to see if there will be a drastic change in conditions once we arrive at the timeframe the GFS has this.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

[gatorcane]

Two runs in a row and one run yesterday where the GFS is showing Cape Verde development, animation between 120 hours and 240 hours below:

[RL3AO]

GFS develops a long-track TC in about five days. Euro has the strong wave, but it doesn't develop. Looking at the environment the GFS has in the forecast, it doesn't really look unfavorable. If anything, it looks somewhat favorable...

[srainhoutx]

The morning Updated Hemispheric Pattern suggest that around Week 2, A CCKW and somewhat favorable MJO nears the Pacific Coast of Mexico and the Western Atlantic Basin.

[RL3AO]

Looking a little closer, the GFS seems to develop the wave associated with this strong MCS near Togo.



Then the vigorous wave develops when the AEJ extends over the ocean and appears to help develop the mid-level circulation.



I honestly don't know if this commonly how TC's develop in the Eastern Atlantic (where they interact with the AEJ). However, that appears to be whats happening here.

[TheStormExpert]

I am VERY skeptical of anything developing in the Tropical Atlantic after what we saw with the models on the wave currently emerging west Africa today.

What I can take though from the GFS is even though it is only June 28th it must be seeing an uptick in tropical activity in the coming weeks. This comes about a good 4-6 weeks ahead of climatology.

[Kingarabian]

Two runs in a row and one run yesterday where the GFS is showing Cape Verde development, animation between 120 hours and 240 hours below:

GFS plows this into a stout ridge. Don't know how believable that is.

[RL3AO]

Two runs in a row and one run yesterday where the GFS is showing Cape Verde development, animation between 120 hours and 240 hours below:

GFS plows this into a stout ridge. Don't know how believable that is.

Where? When? What level are you looking at. All I see is a TC moving WNW around the subtropical ridge.