Strong Tropical Wave WSW of CV Islands (INVEST 94L is up)

[RL3AO]

I thought after PR it would weaken but it gets more energetic in the Bahamas.What a longtracker for early July standards.

That run reminds me of Bertha (2014)

[tarheelprogrammer]

Here's my take away from the 18z GFS

Positives:
* Strong easterly wave
* Positive 850 zonal wind anomalies
* 200mb flow is mostly anticyclonic and westerly
* TUTTs are well west and north (western Caribbean and N of PR)

Negatives:
* Some dry air to the north and west of the wave (recent SAL outbreak)
* Large scale subsidence (-MJO/-CCKW)
* It's June 29th

I can see why the GFS is developing it. I can also see why other models aren't. Not sure what to think.

Yeah it is really just the GFS Op on its own currently I do believe. Getting closer to time to put up or shut up.

[cycloneye]

Will NHC mention it in next TWO or they wait for Euro?

[cycloneye]

Will NHC mention it in next TWO or they wait for Euro?

No at 8.

[RL3AO]

Some decent GEFS support, but so far not much else from other models.

[cycloneye]

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 21W from
02N to 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. This wave remains
embedded within an envelope of southwesterly monsoonal moisture
that observed in latest satellite imagery to be present just
offshore the coast of Africa. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is within 60 nm east of the axis from 09N to
12N. Scattered moderate convection is within 300 nm west of the
axis from 04N to 10N.

[cycloneye]

Humor from Mark Sudduth.

@hurricanetrack
You see, this is why you can't trust the GFS, or any other model, at long ranges. Enjoy! #shrek #gfs



 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/880566181291327492

[floridasun78]

if only gfs show it that mean gfs got some thing wrong if other show system and you say hmmmmm

[TheStormExpert]

I'm at least 90% sure the GFS is up to it's usual tricks showing TC development within the next week. The Euro on the other hand shows nothing but high pressure(suppressed air).

[RL3AO]

I'm at least 90% sure the GFS is up to it's usual tricks showing TC development within the next week. The Euro on the other hand shows nothing but high pressure(suppressed air).

The Euro has a closed 850 low with this wave in seven days. It just washes it out after that. Certainly not "nothing but high pressure".

[Kingarabian]

Very weak on the 12z Euro Parallel. Lowest pressure is 1014mb.

[Fego]

Is that a private page (ECM Parallel)?

[Kingarabian]

:uarrow:
Is that a private page (ECM Parallel)?

It's supposed to be pushed out and replace the OP Euro in July.

[TheStormExpert]

I'm at least 90% sure the GFS is up to it's usual tricks showing TC development within the next week. The Euro on the other hand shows nothing but high pressure(suppressed air).

The Euro has a closed 850 low with this wave in seven days. It just washes it out after that. Certainly not "nothing but high pressure".

Then how do you explain this?

[RL3AO]

Then how do you explain this?

http://i65.tinypic.com/zilgmb.png[/img]

Whats there to explain? It's a weak closed low that doesn't develop into a TC.

[RL3AO]

Looks like the 0z GFS is gonna develop it in a similar manner.

[TheStormExpert]

Then how do you explain this?

http://i65.tinypic.com/zilgmb.png[/img]

Whats there to explain? It's a weak closed low that doesn't develop into a TC.

I just notice all that high pressure surrounding it.

[RL3AO]

Then how do you explain this?

http://i65.tinypic.com/zilgmb.png[/img]

Whats there to explain? It's a weak closed low that doesn't develop into a TC.

I just notice all that high pressure surrounding it.

Those are anomalies compared to climatology. There's above average pressures in the eastern Atlantic. Any weak low is going to have higher than usual pressures.

[RL3AO]

A handful of positives. A few big negatives. Unlikely to develop but still interesting.

[Alyono]

dissipates it east of the islands