2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#581 Postby BobHarlem » Thu Jun 29, 2017 9:08 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
BobHarlem wrote:Is the 18z GFS really suggesting a storm making its way across the Atlantic all the way to Nassau, in July?

It happened in 1996 so who knows


If Don winds up going to WPB in July the jokes will write themselves.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#582 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Jun 29, 2017 9:11 pm

BobHarlem wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:
BobHarlem wrote:Is the 18z GFS really suggesting a storm making its way across the Atlantic all the way to Nassau, in July?

It happened in 1996 so who knows


If Don winds up going to WPB in July the jokes will write themselves.

Being the target 240+ hours out is always the best place to be with the models. :wink:
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#583 Postby floridasun78 » Thu Jun 29, 2017 10:15 pm

i look emwf look show same wave as gfs coming td by next week http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... s=0&ypos=0 navgem show some thing as gfs too and emwf http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... s=0&ypos=0
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#584 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Thu Jun 29, 2017 11:12 pm

GFS-Para is now coming around to GFS OP solution hmmmmmmmm......... :double:
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#585 Postby RL3AO » Thu Jun 29, 2017 11:18 pm

Now that's an example of convective feedback.

Image
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#586 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Jun 30, 2017 12:21 am

RL3AO wrote:Now that's an example of convective feedback.

Image

Sigh :roll:
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#587 Postby chaser1 » Fri Jun 30, 2017 10:27 am

BobHarlem wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:
BobHarlem wrote:Is the 18z GFS really suggesting a storm making its way across the Atlantic all the way to Nassau, in July?

It happened in 1996 so who knows


If Don winds up going to WPB in July the jokes will write themselves.


Best line this week LOL!
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#588 Postby chaser1 » Fri Jun 30, 2017 10:30 am

RL3AO wrote:Now that's an example of convective feedback.

Image


Or a scrambled double embryo (hold the bacon) :cheesy:
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#589 Postby weathaguyry » Fri Jun 30, 2017 12:48 pm

Gotta love the long range GFS

Image
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#590 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Fri Jun 30, 2017 1:44 pm

Either the GFS is about to fail badly, or the other models are wrong. :double:
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#591 Postby johngaltfla » Fri Jun 30, 2017 5:07 pm

tarheelprogrammer wrote:Either the GFS is about to fail badly, or the other models are wrong. :double:


I'll take GFS FAIL in July for $500, Alex. :D
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#592 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Fri Jun 30, 2017 5:19 pm

johngaltfla wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:Either the GFS is about to fail badly, or the other models are wrong. :double:


I'll take GFS FAIL in July for $500, Alex. :D


Same here lol. New GFS run is even more bullish.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#593 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Jun 30, 2017 5:32 pm

tarheelprogrammer wrote:
johngaltfla wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:Either the GFS is about to fail badly, or the other models are wrong. :double:


I'll take GFS FAIL in July for $500, Alex. :D


Same here lol. New GFS run is even more bullish.

The GFS is not alone anymore as the UKMET has joined in with SOME development.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#594 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Fri Jun 30, 2017 10:06 pm

weathaguyry wrote:Gotta love the long range GFS

Image


As anyone around these parts would tell you after living through Arthur (which made landfall as a 65 mph storm at Moncton New Brunswick and brought a swath of damage far inland) during early July of 2014, never say never. This run might seem sheer fantasy, but the tropics can surprise us. Before Arthur, I, for example, would never have thought a tropical system could produce hurricane-force winds (gusts) this far north and so far inland so early in the season, nor predominantly on its "weaker" west side.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#595 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sat Jul 01, 2017 1:58 pm

ECMWF with no real development of this system. Anyone with access know what is holding it back from developing? Is it the typical shear, and the dry air that has been constant in recent years?
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#596 Postby RL3AO » Sat Jul 01, 2017 2:02 pm

tarheelprogrammer wrote:ECMWF with no real development of this system. Anyone with access know what is holding it back from developing? Is it the typical shear, and the dry air that has been constant in recent years?


Probably a combination of the dry air and the large scale subsidence from the suppressed MJO. Although, it is worth noting that PWATs and mid-level RH values are above average right now. Just goes to show how unfavorable the eastern Atlantic normally is in July.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#597 Postby tolakram » Tue Jul 04, 2017 7:32 am

0Z Euro picking up another low rider starting at 160+ hours.

Image
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#598 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Jul 04, 2017 7:39 am

:uarrow: I'm guessing 2-3 Tropical Atlantic TC's by mid-July would be a good indication of an active season. :eek:
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#599 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 05, 2017 1:54 pm

12z ECMWF on day 9.

Image

Day 10:

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#600 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jul 05, 2017 3:25 pm

There's a ULL that is still lingering around and causing moderate to high shear past west of 60W per the 12z Euro. That's why that 850mb vort looks to be weakening @ hr 240.

Looking at Africa right now there will be a lot of impressive waves coming off the continent throughout July. If it weren't for these ULL's and TUTT's conveniently setting up north of the Caribbean, then no doubt tropical Atlantic activity would be through the roof.
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