Strong Tropical Wave WSW of CV Islands (INVEST 94L is up)

[TheStormExpert]

Mother Nature though does not go by what date it is most of the time it seems. IMO it's hurricane season and anything can form anywhere in the North Atlantic basin despite what time of the season it is. That would likely make that not a huge negative if one at all.

[TheStormExpert]

FWIW the 18z GFS seems to have it slightly more organized through 108hrs.

[tarheelprogrammer]

18z GFS is setting up for a possibly bad situation for Florida or SE. Good thing it is long range.

[TheStormExpert]

18z GFS is setting up for a possibly bad situation for Florida or SE. Good thing it is long range.

True that! I've also noticed something, the 06z and 18z runs of the GFS have seem to be the more bullish set of runs for the GFS regarding this, probably means nothing.

[tarheelprogrammer]

18z GFS is setting up for a possibly bad situation for Florida or SE. Good thing it is long range.

True that! I've also noticed something, the 06z and 18z runs of the GFS have seem to be the more bullish set of runs for the GFS regarding this, probably means nothing.

It is like you read my mind. Yesterday I thought about posting that as well, but thought it was just me. Both those runs seem to add more fuel to the fire for storms for some reason.

[RL3AO]

I think it's gonna make it to land this run

[Nimbus]

The Bermuda high is centered quite far northeast in the 18z GFS.
Ridging might shunt a storm as far west as the Bahamas but that is probably going to be the left margin for the models if the Bermuda high doesn't build further west.

[RL3AO]

Here's the social media safe version of the steering pattern in the GFS.

[WeatherEmperor]

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[TheStormExpert]

All I'll say is next stop, West Palm Beach, FL.

[Alyono]

it's clear that the stronger this gets, the farther west this will go

[tarheelprogrammer]

it's clear that the stronger this gets, the farther west this will go

You were right with the steering not always being poleward the stronger it is.

[WeatherEmperor]

Pure fantasy.....




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[tarheelprogrammer]

GFS has to be way too strong with this right guys? Has there ever been a storm off the East Coast this time of the year near 950 mb?

[Alyono]

GFS has to be way too strong with this right guys? Has there ever been a storm off the East Coast this time of the year near 950 mb?

well we had a cat4/5 in Dennis immediately followed by cat 5 Emily 12 years ago

[tarheelprogrammer]

GFS has to be way too strong with this right guys? Has there ever been a storm off the East Coast this time of the year near 950 mb?

well we had a cat4/5 in Dennis immediately followed by cat 5 Emily 12 years ago

Were any of them north of the Caribbean?

[WeatherEmperor]

Bertha 1996 a good analog to this particular run maybe?




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[tarheelprogrammer]

Honestly the GFS-Para seems more realistic. Just my opinion though. Would be crazy to see a cat 4 or 5 making landfall in the southeast in July.

[TheStormExpert]

it's clear that the stronger this gets, the farther west this will go

Yes and no. The 500mb pattern on the 18z run features much more ridging compared to previous runs.

[RL3AO]

Pretty significant difference in the North American synoptic pattern with the 18z run vs the 12z. Models keep developing a very strong ridge over the Canadian Prairies in the next week or two. The 18z run starts to break the ridge over towards Ontario leading to the eastern US/Canada trough cutting off. This leads to more ridging over the NE US and the western Atlantic. Probably leads to a favorable environment for would be Don. It'll be worth watching how the other models and future runs handle the Canadian Prairie ridge and eastern US trough over the next week or so.