2017 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

Oh ok. I dont see a reason for a no mention sometime today after this consensus.

[cycloneye]

Finnally!


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jul 1 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
Acapulco, Mexico, is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conducive are expected to be
conducive for gradual development of this system during the next
several days while it moves west-northwestward well south of the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

[Kingarabian]

I'd tag it now. Looks very healthy with evident mid level turning, maintained convection, and nice overall structure.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS Parallel has a conveyor belt of TC's in the EPac.

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Jul 1 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Development, if any, of this system
should be slow to occur while it moves west-northwestward well south
of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

2. A tropical wave entering the extreme eastern Pacific Ocean from
Central America is producing some disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. By early next week, an area of low pressure
is expected to form in association with the wave several hundred
miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Conditions are expected
to be favorable for some development of this system by late next
week while it moves westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Brennan

[RL3AO]

I'd probably flip the 20's in the EPac and the 40 in the Atlantic.

[Kingarabian]

I'd probably flip the 20's in the EPac and the 40 in the Atlantic.

Exactly what I was thinking lol!

[Yellow Evan]

All four major models (GFS, GFSP, ECMWF, UKMET) show 3 systems in their respective timeframes.

[Kingarabian]

Add the Euro Parallel to that list. 12zEuroP comes in with 3 systems.

[dexterlabio]

Your usual crazy Eastern Pacific in the month of July.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Jul 2 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large area of showers and thunderstorms located several hundred
miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is associated with an
elongated area of low pressure. Some slow development of
this system is possible during the next several days while it
moves west-northwestward away from the coast of southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

A tropical wave located south-southwest of the coast of El Salvador
is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. An area
of low pressure is expected to form in association with the wave
during the next couple of days well south of the coast of Mexico.
Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for
development of this system by later this week while it moves
westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jul 2 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing a large area
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development of
this system is possible during the next several days while it
moves west-northwestward away from the coast of southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

2. A tropical wave located south of the coast of Guatemala is
producing a few disorganized showers and thunderstorms. An area
of low pressure is expected to form in association with the wave
during the next couple of days well south of the coast of Mexico.
Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for
development of this system by later this week while it moves
westward to west-northwestward around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

INVEST 94E is up

[Yellow Evan]

12z model cycle

[/list]

[Kingarabian]

Going to be interesting to see which storm wins out and becomes the monster of the bunch.

[cycloneye]

:uarrow: Going to be interesting to see which storm wins out and becomes the monster of the bunch.

If Euro is right 94E may be a crossover to CPAC.

[Kingarabian]

:uarrow: Going to be interesting to see which storm wins out and becomes the monster of the bunch.

If Euro is right 94E may be a crossover to CPAC.

Yeah and it also keeps it alive surprisingly.

[Yellow Evan]

NASA model has four systems in 10 days. Next two weeks should be quite busy. CFS ensembles drops activity off at the end of July.

[Kingarabian]

Vertical Instability is on the rise and shear is running quite lower than average.

[Kingarabian]

All future systems whether they track west or not will have favorable shear overhead. As long as they stay east of 140W lol.

[RL3AO]

EPAC is gonna open up quite the ACE lead by July 15th. Everything screams a hyperactive (compared to climo) period starting mid-week.