ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

[Frank2]

SAL strato-cu to the NW so not the best environment in its path...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[SFLcane]

In terms of the SE Way early to call but I'd be highly suprised if what should be Don pass 70W before recurving. We shall see

[wxman57]

Why is this not a TD? Just wondering what it is missing. You can see the low level spin, and it appears much more organized than yesterday.

What's missing is organized and persistent convection around a well-defined low-level center. Yes, it looks better-organized than 24 hours ago, but it's not a TD yet.

I'm not seeing anything to indicate a hurricane threat to the eastern Caribbean. UKMET and EC indicate a rain threat, if any. Nothing yet to indicate any U.S. East Coast threat - might not be too sure of that for another 5-7 days. Development into "something" looks like a better-than-not chance. For now, I'd pick Bermuda as potentially the most threatened.

[cycloneye]

Loop:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Aric Dunn]

Did your name just change color, or am I crazy?

The correct paperwork arrived.

Congrats been a long road.


The systems has been pretty amazing the last 24 hours with how fast it has been organizing. considering most of everything in the atlantic basin is mess of crap for a week before anything happens.

[cycloneye]

In terms of the SE Way early to call but I'd be highly suprised if what should be Don pass 70W before recurving. We shall see

Moved your post from the models thread to this one.

[WeatherHoon]

I get the feeling we're going to be in for a very long week.

[GCANE]

Strong Cell indicated on 85GHz

[Aric Dunn]

ITs pretty clear from this angle we have a quickly organizing low level circ. probably not quite organized at the surface since the systems is mostly still attached to the ITCZ/Monsoon trough. Though given the rate at which it has already organized could be looking at td/ts sooner rather than later. tomorrow afternoon should be borderline advisories.
https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/goesEastfullDiskband02.html

medium zoom- 25 images-

[cycloneye]

Color enhanced.Looks like is getting ready to rumble.

[Nimbus]

The high cirrus in the outflow is quite symmetrical, warmer SST's and a little more moisture would really cause this to pop.

[weathaguyry]

At the next TWO, I wouldn't be surprised to see something like 50/80 for the development chances

[GCANE]

Latest COAMPS vs GFS.

Quite a difference in latitude.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Hey all. Haven't posted in awhile. Looks like it's going to be an interesting season. I would say for the past ten years I've always been more worried when the models showed a storm missing me completely. Compared to when they'de show it getting closer. At least this far out.

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET like Euro.

[weathaguyry]

18z GFS continues to insist that this will be a TD around 2PM tomorrow

[tarheelprogrammer]

GFS is already south at hour 78. Could be a trend toward the ECMWF?

[weathaguyry]

Hmm, the ULL seems to have a southern lobe on this run, maybe that's why the euro doesn't develop it too much?

[RL3AO]

It's not pulling it as far north this run when the vorticity from the east catches up. This run looks a little more realistic than 12z.

[tolakram]

GFS trend, last 8 runs including the current 18Z.