ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

[NDG]

ASCAT misses its COC this morning but catches some of its western quadrant, still looks to be attached to the monsoonal trough.

[OuterBanker]

It’s interesting. The long term track has seemed to have widened considerably. My guess is that the models haven’t reached any consensus on strength (weaker a more westerly track, stronger a more poleward track). Is that a correct guess?

[Siker]

~9/51 00z Euro Ensemble members redevelop this near the Bahamas, compared to the 1-2 of the past few runs.

[RL3AO]

Might be worth noting the 500MB normalized anomalies at the end of the euro 0z run. Is the trough gone?

The trough is still there south of Hudson Bay. It's just embedded within so much ridging that it doesn't have a big anomaly signature. Euro seems to be hinting at a much weaker trough with more eastern NA ridging compared to the GFS though.

[weathaguyry]

Might be worth noting the 500MB normalized anomalies at the end of the euro 0z run. Is the trough gone?

The trough is still there south of Hudson Bay. It's just embedded within so much ridging that it doesn't have a big anomaly signature. Euro seems to be hinting at a much weaker trough with more eastern NA ridging compared to the GFS though.

What might this mean for the track of whatever forms?

[RL3AO]

What might this mean for the track of whatever forms?

West of Bermuda. *

*Probably.

[blp]

It does look less organized today. I see another vorticity developing around 11N 33W that is stealing some of the inflow into primary one. This was something we saw could happen with models as it tries to release itself from the Monsoon trough and consolidate. The longer this process takes the more west it will go. So it will be interesting to see how long it takes to finally consolidate and will the consolidation happen further north or stay south which will happen implications on the models.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

94L's striking me as another TS Dorian in 2013 right now. Future looks bleak for anything beyond a 50 knot TS.

[cycloneye]

For those who dont remember TS Dorian's track here it is.

[Nimbus]

It does look less organized today. I see another vorticity developing around 11N 33W that is stealing some of the inflow into primary one. This was something we saw could happen with models as it tries to release itself from the Monsoon trough and consolidate. The longer this process takes the more west it will go. So it will be interesting to see how long it takes to finally consolidate and will the consolidation happen further north or stay south which will happen implications on the models.

Circulation looks elongated SW to NE, still kind of dry at the northern pole so new models will probably spin this up later a little further west. From 11N this system could climb NW fairly quickly if it stacks up in a day or so. I'm watching the official 5 day forecast to see if the track makes the NE corner of the Hebert box or not. In actuality though if the circulation stays elongated some of the Leewards could see some heavy squalls.

[Aric Dunn]

Its beginning to gyre just as the models were showing. let see how far north that current center/vort gets.

[Aric Dunn]

we also have vort/circ well to the NE which it appears to interacting with as well as possibly one in the middle its a pretty large gyre this morning. very similar to the CMC from the other day.

[Aric Dunn]

again from this angle the circ on the lower half is quite defined and void of convection but we definitely have a closed wind field just with multiple vorts.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/goesEastfullDiskband02.html

25 images medium zoom

[TheStormExpert]

94L's striking me as another TS Dorian in 2013 right now. Future looks bleak for anything beyond a 50 knot TS.

If it does happen to have the same fate as Dorian I hope this isn't an indication of a repeat of the dreadfully dead 2013 season.

[TheStormExpert]

Interested to see what the 12z Euro shows in a couple hours. It was hinting at 94L redeveloping off the SE U.S. Coast in 9-10 days. Of course it'll likely show the opposite I'd assume since it seems the vast majority of the global models kill this once out of the Tropical Atlantic.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Models are close to no development at all. So, will NHC lower development chances?

[weathaguyry]

94L's striking me as another TS Dorian in 2013 right now. Future looks bleak for anything beyond a 50 knot TS.

If it does happen to have the same fate as Dorian I hope this isn't an indication of a repeat of the dreadfully dead 2013 season.

I made a post about this in the Seasonal Indicators Thread, but the SST pattern was very clearly switching to a -AMO pattern by now in 2013

[weathaguyry]

Models are close to no development at all. So, will NHC lower development chances?

Models have been trending for little development for a while now, and the NHC has continued to increase it's chances of development, so maybe they see something we don't see

[TheStormExpert]

94L's striking me as another TS Dorian in 2013 right now. Future looks bleak for anything beyond a 50 knot TS.

If it does happen to have the same fate as Dorian I hope this isn't an indication of a repeat of the dreadfully dead 2013 season.

I made a post about this in the Seasonal Indicators Thread, but the SST pattern was very clearly switching to a -AMO pattern by now in 2013

True but someone on here also stated that in the coming weeks the pattern is becoming less favorable for seeing potent AEW's like we've been seeing the past month or so. He also said it is more of an El Niño pattern versus the La Niña pattern were in now.

[Alyono]

development chances are most certainly decreasing.

This likely was a TD for a while yesterday. It has degenerated into a broad low today. The westerlies are also not as prevalent today

I'd say chances are down to 50% now, but of course I would only make a slight adjustment to preserve forecast continuity