ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

[tolakram]

Models have not been trending towards no development. From my perspective it looks like a tropical storm over the next few days and then weakening back into a depression and maybe or maybe not re-developing. Who is seeing 'no development' from the models?

[Aric Dunn]

Models have not been trending towards no development. From my perspective it looks like a tropical storm over the next few days and then weakening back into a depression and maybe or maybe not re-developing. Who is seeing 'no development' from the models?

yeah everyone who keeps saying its looks worse or the models are backing off have not looked closely at the trends both model and actual trends. this current structure has been shown for the last few days by nearly every model and still is in every model to have a gyre for at least another 24 hours. with the Euro consolidating faster than the rest( at least in the crap public version )

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern associated with the
broad area of low pressure centered about 800 miles west-southwest
of the Cabo Verde Islands has not become any better organized
today. Environmental conditions are still favorable for a tropical
cyclone to form within the next day or two while the low moves
westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[TheStormExpert]

Funny how many who were saying this would develop and have favorable conditions most of it's life 12-24 hrs. ago are now shouting little or no development and that chances of development are decreasing.

[Hammy]

94L's striking me as another TS Dorian in 2013 right now. Future looks bleak for anything beyond a 50 knot TS.

If it does happen to have the same fate as Dorian I hope this isn't an indication of a repeat of the dreadfully dead 2013 season.

Do bear in mind that this is July and most systems that form that far east actually don't make it across--1989 and 1998 had similar storms that sheared out as they reached about 50-60W as well.

I'm honestly starting to have doubts about development after looking at the satellite appearance today, it seems it's dealing with quite a bit of easterly shear at the moment.

[TheStormExpert]

94L's striking me as another TS Dorian in 2013 right now. Future looks bleak for anything beyond a 50 knot TS.

If it does happen to have the same fate as Dorian I hope this isn't an indication of a repeat of the dreadfully dead 2013 season.

Do bear in mind that this is July and most systems that form that far east actually don't make it across--1989 and 1998 had similar storms that sheared out as they reached about 50-60W as well.

I'm honestly starting to have doubts about development after looking at the satellite appearance today, it seems it's dealing with quite a bit of easterly shear at the moment.

Shear is only 5-10kts. from the NE right now.

[RL3AO]

Systems developing from a monsoon trough often look pretty bad when they first detach. Bret even had a bit of that. Looked pretty good until it left the monsoon trough. People yelled "bust" and then it developed.

[WeatherHoon]

94L's striking me as another TS Dorian in 2013 right now. Future looks bleak for anything beyond a 50 knot TS.

If it does happen to have the same fate as Dorian I hope this isn't an indication of a repeat of the dreadfully dead 2013 season.

Doubt we'll see a 2013 repeat this year. Too early in the season to have feelings of disappointment.

[TheStormExpert]

Well, 12z Euro kills it in 72hrs.

[Alyono]

barely even a trace of vorticity remaining in 72 hours

[tarheelprogrammer]

Well, 12z Euro kills it in 72hrs.

I would say that is a clear trend there then. However, I will point out that the models have failed miserably in recent years with a few systems. We shall see, but recent model runs do not look good for 94L.

[AutoPenalti]

People who are now shouting "death" after saying there was potential of a it intensifying seem to forget that this is embedded in a monsoon gyre.


Usually development is slow and it becomes sloppy, once we see it out of the monsoon we should be able to note whether it can handle on its own. Give it time people. We'll know for sure.

[TheStormExpert]

Well, 12z Euro kills it in 72hrs.

I would say that is a clear trend there then. However, I will point out that the models have failed miserably in recent years with a few systems. We shall see, but recent model runs do not look good for 94L.

Unless it reforms off the SE U.S. coast later on I don't see development chances for 94L being any higher than 30-40%, and that's likely being generous.

[TheStormExpert]

Is it possible since it is embedded with the monsoon gyre that models are not able to detect development and intensity well?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

94L's striking me as another TS Dorian in 2013 right now. Future looks bleak for anything beyond a 50 knot TS.

If it does happen to have the same fate as Dorian I hope this isn't an indication of a repeat of the dreadfully dead 2013 season.

Doubt it, but it does show that early season CV development isn't always a harbinger of an active season. 2013 was as freak of a year as 2005 was, imo, just in the opposite direction.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:


AL, 94, 2017070418, , BEST, 0, 98N, 341W, 30, 1009, LO

[tarheelprogrammer]

Well, 12z Euro kills it in 72hrs.

I would say that is a clear trend there then. However, I will point out that the models have failed miserably in recent years with a few systems. We shall see, but recent model runs do not look good for 94L.

Unless it reforms off the SE U.S. coast later on I don't see development chances for 94L being any higher than 30-40%, and that's likely being generous.

It will need to be watched either way, because models are sometimes flat out wrong on intensity.

[Hammy]

Satellite appearance, retreat of the low-level westerlies (which extended much further west yesterday) and the Euro's latest run (as well as the GFS trend) pretty much tells me any chances of this developing have gone out the window.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Satellite appearance, retreat of the low-level westerlies (which extended much further west yesterday) and the Euro's latest run (as well as the GFS trend) pretty much tells me any chances of this developing have gone out the window.

Partial disagreement from me, I think it'll develop but it'll remain very weak.

[Aric Dunn]

Satellite appearance, retreat of the low-level westerlies (which extended much further west yesterday) and the Euro's latest run (as well as the GFS trend) pretty much tells me any chances of this developing have gone out the window.

Partial disagreement from me, I think it'll develop but it'll remain very weak.

if anything the overall low level structure has tightened up on the lower half of the gyre with two very clear vorts rotating around. Not sure what you all are looking at but compared to yesterday the circulation has become much more defined. just because the cloud pattern has been less organized ( which by the way is because of the multiple vorts so no centralized convection.) does not mean its overall less organized. trend is still pointing towards develop in the next 24 hours.