ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

[A bunch of Don(nie)[deby] downers in here .. lately its seems like most post are about who is going to be right rather than first and foremost listening to the experts (nhc). Second actually looking and doing a good analyisis of current trends. Which includes models vs current[/quote]


The Pro-Mets with years of experience under there belt on storm2k,are just as good if
not even better than the experts @(nhc).

[tarheelprogrammer]

I believe there is an LLC east of the new blow up of convection. It appears to be moving due north or slightly west of due north.

It is quite easy to see now, because it is devoid of convection.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_meteosat.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_met_4km_visir2_floater&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

[Hammy]

We should get an ASCAT pass in the next few hours as long as it doesn't miss, so we should get an idea if the two lows here have separated at all--at the moment it appears they're still interacting given the convective flareup of the northeastern one.

They are not going to seperate. They both developed seperately but are locked together and one must one must take over... and right now the larger circ is to the south side but is made of at least two vorts. The northern vort had some good deep convection earlier but was under higher shear. Eventually they will merge regardless of a classification.

If this does in fact develop, could the fact that there are two lows at the moment be the cause of the model runs being weaker or dropping development?

[Fego]

We should get an ASCAT pass in the next few hours as long as it doesn't miss, so we should get an idea if the two lows here have separated at all--at the moment it appears they're still interacting given the convective flareup of the northeastern one.

They are not going to seperate. They both developed seperately but are locked together and one must one must take over... and right now the larger circ is to the south side but is made of at least two vorts. The northern vort had some good deep convection earlier but was under higher shear. Eventually they will merge regardless of a classification.

If this does in fact develop, could the fact that there are two lows at the moment be the cause of the model runs being weaker or dropping development?

Hi. Per the GFS, the eastern low was supposed to control the whole circulation, move NW during a few hours, and then WNW. Point is that we all struggle with cyclogenesis predictions.

[NDG]

We should get an ASCAT pass in the next few hours as long as it doesn't miss, so we should get an idea if the two lows here have separated at all--at the moment it appears they're still interacting given the convective flareup of the northeastern one.

ASCAT pass tonight missed the whole system.

[blp]

Very impressive blowup of convection. Also looks to have taken the NW jog I was waiting for as it detaches from the ITCZ. Following the models predictions well. Look like the SW vorticity is the dominant one now. I expect tomorrow it should get classified.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/94L/imagery/rb_lalo-animated.gif

[Aric Dunn]

We should get an ASCAT pass in the next few hours as long as it doesn't miss, so we should get an idea if the two lows here have separated at all--at the moment it appears they're still interacting given the convective flareup of the northeastern one.

They are not going to seperate. They both developed seperately but are locked together and one must one must take over... and right now the larger circ is to the south side but is made of at least two vorts. The northern vort had some good deep convection earlier but was under higher shear. Eventually they will merge regardless of a classification.

If this does in fact develop, could the fact that there are two lows at the moment be the cause of the model runs being weaker or dropping development?

of course ! the inner dynamics of fluid mechanics is easy to understand hard to model. to many variables. the early models were all showing this.. I just cant understand why everyone forgets earlier model runs the moment something is different.

and now the convection is building with the lower lobe/vort/circ.. just as the earlier model runs indicated.

[Hurricaneman]

Big shift north with the 12Z EC ensembles. Every member takes it north of the Caribbean now. It was looking so good yesterday, but the environment is clearly not that favorable.

Looking at the models it looks like the area between 60and 70w is the unfavorable area but west of 70 could throw us a surprise and maybe if still a tropical cyclone maybe more than modeled right now

[Hurricaneman]

Looks to be becoming a tropical cyclone and may be one sometime in between the afternoon and Thursday and may become a decent tropical storm before hitting the shear in 4 days but I do believe that if this goes the same path as the Euro if still a tropical cyclone will re strengthen but if it degenerates into a wave it could regenerate in the Bahamas, the GFS seems to not want to lose this as a tropical cyclone but remains weak as it stays in the shear but we'll see as tropical cyclones will do their own thing and sometimes defy forecast so let's hope this stays east and doesn't become a threat of any kind

[Hurricaneman]

The 12zEuro had the wave heading into the GOM at 240 hrs and it looks like the conditions are pretty good past 70w so this may still need to be watched and looking at the GFS it seems to show strengthening as it heads up and out but here's a trend I've been noticing with the GFS is that this is heading a little farther west every run before the turn north possibly correcting towards the Euro solution

[Aric Dunn]

aaannndd pop goes the weasel ..

look at the convective pattern now.. can we all see the trends now ?

[AutoPenalti]

Last few frames made it look like it just slingshoted north.

[Aric Dunn]

Last few frames made it look like it just slingshoted north.

as the models indicated. ... though right now its just the convection building around the llc.

[Orlando]

That's really strange. I had about given this one up. For what it's worth, I've been having some slight pain for the past two to three hours, but not as bad as the last few days. Pain may be building as is the storm.

[Aric Dunn]

That's really strange. I had about given this one up. For what it's worth, I've been having some slight pain for the past two to three hours, but not as bad as the last few days.

lol I was wondering if you bones were going to tell us the future

[Orlando]

That's really strange. I had about given this one up. For what it's worth, I've been having some slight pain for the past two to three hours, but not as bad as the last few days.

lol I was wondering if you bones were going to tell us the future

Yep, starting to hurt a bit more now. I don't have the expertise that you and the others here have, but I can judge by the pain. This storm must have been going through some trouble today. I hurt for three or four day before today and then the pain completely stopped today until the last few hours tonight.

So what's your prediction for this one--Don, if named?

[Aric Dunn]

That's really strange. I had about given this one up. For what it's worth, I've been having some slight pain for the past two to three hours, but not as bad as the last few days.

lol I was wondering if you bones were going to tell us the future

Yep, starting to hurt a bit more now. I don't have the expertise that you and the others here have, but I can judge by the pain. This storm must have been going through some trouble today. I hurt for three or four day before today and then the pain completely stopped today until the last few hours tonight.

So what's your prediction for this one--Don, if named?

I will have to consult your predicative ability first. I dont want to be behind in the race after all.

[Aric Dunn]

I would take your ability over most models these days ( and some people) ;P

[Orlando]

lol I was wondering if you bones were going to tell us the future

Yep, starting to hurt a bit more now. I don't have the expertise that you and the others here have, but I can judge by the pain. This storm must have been going through some trouble today. I hurt for three or four day before today and then the pain completely stopped today until the last few hours tonight.

So what's your prediction for this one--Don, if named?

I will have to consult your predicative ability first. I dont want to be behind in the race after all.

Hahahahaha, very funny

I can't predict where it is going--only that it is a storm likely to get stronger or weaker.

[Aric Dunn]

Yep, starting to hurt a bit more now. I don't have the expertise that you and the others here have, but I can judge by the pain. This storm must have been going through some trouble today. I hurt for three or four day before today and then the pain completely stopped today until the last few hours tonight.

So what's your prediction for this one--Don, if named?

I will have to consult your predicative ability first. I dont want to be behind in the race after all.

I would never ask anything more



Hahahahaha, very funny

I can't predict where it is going--only that it is a storm likely to get stronger or weaker.