ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

[GeneratorPower]

Blob is interesting. Coldest tops expanding a bit and overall maintaining itself too. Could be something.

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
742 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 mb surface low is centered near 12N37W. A tropical wave
extends from 19N37W to the low to 06N37W. through the low from
06N to 18N. Scattered moderate convection is observed within the
low. Environmental conditions remain favorable for tropical
cyclone formation today or Thursday while it moves westward at 10
to 15 kt across the tropical Atlantic. The system has a medium
chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

[cycloneye]

05/2345 UTC 12.6N 37.6W T1.5/1.5 94L -- Atlantic

[gatorcane]

Looking closely at the models, I notice a bit of a trend toward this invest getting further west once it makes the turn west north of the Lesser Antilles. The other thing is that some of the models such as the GFS Para and JMA actually show a small anticyclone building over this invest once the upper low SE of Bermuda moves out to the north. Depending upon what is left of this invest, it might have a chance to reorganize once north of of the Lesser Antilles perhaps more than the models are showing at the moment in the medium to long-range. There will still be plenty of dry air around though.

[TheAustinMan]

Recent ASCAT pass overlaid on infrared imagery for 94L. Time listed on the image. Circulation looks decently well-defined to my eyes.

[weathaguyry]

The circulation looks slightly elongated, but since the ASCAT run didn't go over all of it, it's hard to tell how elongated it really is

[Aric Dunn]

This is so silly. we know there is a defined circ and convection has now been organized and persistent pushing 20 hours. we would TS Don if this was close to land.

unfortunately keeping continuity has never been at the top of the list.. lol

[ronjon]

Agreed Aric...seems to me to be a TD at the moment. Perhaps if the convection maintains itself over night they'll classify it in the morning.

[Aric Dunn]

I really curious as the to progress of the llc earlier it a migrating west under the convection. if the convection is being sustained by the llc around the center of if its all in some convergence band away from the center. need a good microwave pass

[Alyono]

where are the northerly winds?

[Aric Dunn]

where are the northerly winds?

here you go.. that bouy all day has shown all you need ... not due north but close enough to extrapolate..

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

[Hammy]

Winds seem too light for an upgrade as the ASCAT only showed about 20kt. Buoy to the west showed about the same earlier today as well.

[AutoPenalti]

Not sure if this was posted on here but just to be sure:

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/882670747407314944

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Intensity models continue to show a slow and gradual intensification of 94L over the next three to five days.

[AutoPenalti]

This is so silly. we know there is a defined circ and convection has now been organized and persistent pushing 20 hours. we would TS Don if this was close to land.

unfortunately keeping continuity has never been at the top of the list.. lol

I don't think there's a rush to pull the trigger. I mean it's no where near land like you said.

It's not like the NHC has to meet seasonal goals when it comes to classifying storms before it's deemed necesario

[NDG]

Another look of the ASCAT

[tropicwatch]

Convection continues to build very well this evening.

[RL3AO]

Based on satellite and ascat, this looks like a TC.

[tolakram]

Getting hard to ignore the persistence.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

[Hurricane Andrew]

The little TC rhat could? I figure we'll have a bump to 70/70 at 11, and maybe an upgrade 12 hours later. I am no pro.