ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

[RL3AO]

Can't wait for all the posts complaining about a quiet Atlantic after the 2nd MDR system forms by early July during a massive suppressed MJO phase.

[Aric Dunn]

check out the motion of the deep convection( overshooting tops) on the far eastside the last couple hours especially the last hour. they have migrated north while the deep convection has migrated south.

looks like convection has built around the east side of the circ. which means its has a better shot of keeping the dry air out.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/94L/flash-avn-long.html

take a look.. the motion is a dead giveaway. it might be more organized that present thinking..

just run the loop ( if you dont already have it running lol) pay attention only the areas that develop the deep reads and greys.

[WeatherHoon]

Think this has a decent shot to reach TS strength?

[Aric Dunn]

Think this has a decent shot to reach TS strength?

quite likely if the convection continues..

[RL3AO]

Think this has a decent shot to reach TS strength?

The way things are going this evening, it probably has a decent chance tomorrow.

[tropicwatch]

Looks like a pretty decent outflow is starting.

[RL3AO]

The dry air will probably get entrained by tomorrow, but my goodness is this thing looking good tonight.

[Aric Dunn]

What I was mentioned before is even more prevalent here with the new images.. huge explosion from the far eastern cell that was moving south to north and now is wraping around to the north side. clear signs of convection on the east side of the llc.

pretty amazing actually. might be looking at TS by morning.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/goesEastfullDiskband14.html

[floridasun78]

is nhc going plane out to invest?

[RL3AO]

is nhc going plane out to invest?

It's not even close to being in range. They usually don't fly until 55W or so. It'll likely be a decaying system by then.

[Aric Dunn]

The dry air will probably get entrained by tomorrow, but my goodness is this thing looking good tonight.

[img]http://i.imgur.com/dTfhDHm.gif[/ig]

its quite possible with so much convection and forcing that the environment immediately around it has developed enough outward force to keep it out. as long as the convection continues.

[USTropics]

It's looking good right now and still has about 24 hours of decent conditions, but then it has a very rough road. Look at this RH drop and abrupt directional shear change:



Animated SAL image shows it can't outrun the oncoming plume either:

[floridasun78]

is nhc going plane out to invest?

It's not even close to being in range. They usually don't fly until 55W or so. It'll likely be a decaying system by then.

have look sat pic look like coming back who know alot here are asking wxman to bring out bone

[NotoSans]

Last pass i can (find) was not full,but does not show any 35kts in what it did capture.
https://s17.postimg.org/dry8r4l9r/WMBds26.png[/img]

The next microwave pass's should give a better indication of status.

Do you have some data we are not privy to atm RL3AO.

Nope, it was based on that ASCAT. I said TC not TS (aka a tropical depression).

There is nothing over 30kts on that ascat,to my knowledge TC aka TD is 34kts.
But givin the low bias of ascats yeah likely is a td

TD is a tropical cyclone (warm-core, non-frontal, synoptic scale cyclone with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center) with winds LESS THAN 34 kt. This system has a well-defined circulation center and organized deep convection, so it is a TD.

[Aric Dunn]

there that clear indication of convection wrapped around the llc.. much better organized..

[SouthDadeFish]

Ehh, it still looks quite sheared to me. I see a vigorous MLC displaced to the west of the surface center, which is on the eastern edge of the convection. It's possible we see a center reformation under the MLC, but I've been burned so many times thinking these sheared blobs will intensify, that I am very hesitant to think this will be any different...

[Aric Dunn]

Ehh, it still looks quite sheared to me. I see a vigorous MLC displaced to the west of the surface center, which is on the eastern edge of the convection. It's possible we see a center reformation under the MLC, but I've been burned so many times thinking these sheared blobs will intensify, that I am very hesitant to think this will be any different...

haha fair enough.. we all have been burned lol

[floridasun78]

i been reading we could see 94l disactive by 5am or 8am or 2pm thur

[Aric Dunn]

coooommmmeee ooonnn good microwave pass.. lol

[SouthDadeFish]

coooommmmeee ooonnn good microwave pass.. lol

That would definitely be very helpful. Ideally one with good enough resolution to give us insight from 37-GHz imagery.