2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[Hurricaneman]

The 18zGFS is joining the Euro with a low riding system thats right now entering Eastern Africa and needs to be watched in the long run

[Hurricane Andrew]

Interested to see if the new threat persists in coming runs. We will see.

[RL3AO]

Looks like the next system is coming from this wave.



Looks like a really intense amplification of the AEJ starting tomorrow. That should help keep the vorticity signature of the wave well defined.

[Alyono]

largely dropped by 0Z

Not expecting much out of it

[wxman57]

6Z GFS has a TD/TS in the eastern Caribbean on day 12 (July 18th). It's sniffing something out...

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS has another Hurricane in the MDR in early July. very low rider

[gatorcane]

6Z GFS has a TD/TS in the eastern Caribbean on day 12 (July 18th). It's sniffing something out...

968mb heading into Lesser Antilles July 15th on the 12Z GFS (low resolution)

[Siker]

12z Para GFS keeps the wave far south in the Caribbean before trying to spin it up in the Southwest Caribbean in two weeks.

[Ivanhater]

Major hurricane bearing down on SoFlo at 324

[gatorcane]

Major hurricane bearing down on SoFlo at 324

[TheStormExpert]

Gee, I wonder how believable a formidable hurricane approaching the Lesser Antilles is in the middle of July especially after what we're seeing with TD#4? I guess if the 12z Euro keeps it we should closely monitor it.

[Hurricane Andrew]

I think the point we should note is that both the ECM and GFS have sniffed out a potential storm in the D10-D15 period during the last 4 cycles, which tells me there is a signature there. If run-to-run consistency continues, it may be something to consider a valid threat.

How is shear in the Caribbean looking for the D10-D15+ period?

[Ivanhater]

Gee, I wonder how believable a formidable hurricane approaching the Lesser Antilles is in the middle of July especially after what we're seeing with TD#4? I guess if the 12z Euro keeps it we should closely monitor it.

The fact the Euro was sniffing this out as well and we have this much activity in the MDR this early is remarkable

[TheStormExpert]

Gee, I wonder how believable a formidable hurricane approaching the Lesser Antilles is in the middle of July especially after what we're seeing with TD#4? I guess if the 12z Euro keeps it we should closely monitor it.

The fact the Euro was sniffing this out as well and we have this much activity in the MDR this early is remarkable

Yeah this could be the BIGGEST MDR season in ages if trends continue.

[TheStormExpert]

Major hurricane bearing down on SoFlo at 324

https://s1.postimg.org/a2nswrxbj/gfs_ms ... eus_48.png

Looks like Frances, or Jeanne all over again.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Impressive signature on the GEFS for this range...
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=412

[Hurricaneman]

Major hurricane bearing down on SoFlo at 324

not likely but one has to look at 2005 to see the possibility especially if this stays a low rider into the Caribbean

[WeatherHoon]

Kinda reminds me of Matthew a bit in terms of early model detection and track. Are there any atmospheric signs that point to this not struggling as much as TD4?

[Hurricaneman]

Kinda reminds me of Matthew a bit in terms of early model detection and track. Are there any atmospheric signs that point to this not struggling as much as TD4?

If it stays anywhere between 10and 12n I think this could possibly be dangerous in the long run but as has been said it's the long run and anything can happen

[Hurricaneman]

Major hurricane bearing down on SoFlo at 324

https://s1.postimg.org/a2nswrxbj/gfs_ms ... eus_48.png

Looks like Frances, or Jeanne all over again.

I'm not expecting that to happen as that's in the very long range but the fact the models seem to be depicting something possibly dangerous is the concern but as we all know in a few days this possible system could be dropped so it's just wait and watch