Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean
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Kingarabian
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave in Western Africa
I feel it doesn't matter if shear is higher or below average as a whole. It depends on where those shear vectors setup. Shear in the EPAC is currently running below average, but perfectly placed shear in its path tore 94E apart.
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Kingarabian
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave in Western Africa
18z GFS drops it. More in line the with the European. Fully expect the GFS to bring it back @ 00z of course!
Edit: Intensifying as it approaches the eastern caribbean. Similar track to the Euro so far.
Edit: Intensifying as it approaches the eastern caribbean. Similar track to the Euro so far.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Thu Jul 06, 2017 5:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Kingarabian
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave in Western Africa
Interesting that the 18z GFS Para has nothing at all.
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TheStormExpert
Re: Strong Tropical Wave in Western Africa
Didn't the GFS-P get TD#4 right while the old GFS went crazy with bombing it out?
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Kingarabian
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave in Western Africa
TheStormExpert wrote:Didn't the GFS-P get TD#4 right while the old GFS went crazy with bombing it out?
Yes. GFS Parallel wasn't perfect with TD4 but it sided with the Euro more times than not.
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Ivanhater
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave in Western Africa
Intensifying quite a bit approaching the Islands
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Michael
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Kingarabian
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave in Western Africa
18z GFS shows higher shear in the E-Caribb compared to the 12z.
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TheStormExpert
Re: Strong Tropical Wave in Western Africa
I think the GFS is gradually trending towards the Euro, clearly conditions aren't favorable just yet throughout the Atlantic.
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TheStormExpert
Re: Strong Tropical Wave in Western Africa
Kingarabian wrote:18z GFS shows higher shear in the E-Caribb compared to the 12z.
But there is an Anticyclone overhead wouldn't that help?
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cycloneye
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave in Western Africa
Who said it dropped it. 
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Kingarabian
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave in Western Africa
TheStormExpert wrote:Kingarabian wrote:18z GFS shows higher shear in the E-Caribb compared to the 12z.
But there is an Anticyclone overhead wouldn't that help?
Appears so. Intensifying now.
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Kingarabian
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave in Western Africa
cycloneye wrote:Who said it dropped it.
[img]http://i.imgur.com/ByLvUAD.png[/mg]
Correct wording would be it "delayed" development lol.
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TheStormExpert
Re: Strong Tropical Wave in Western Africa
Anything past a week on the GFS is just la la land. 
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Kingarabian
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave in Western Africa
The GFS is simply showing us all what would happen if conditions were favorable .
.
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TheStormExpert
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cycloneye
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave in Western Africa
Yeah just south of PR. 
Powerful Hurricane.
Powerful Hurricane.
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cycloneye
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave in Western Africa
Destination Hispanola.
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