Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

[Dylan]

Significant disagreement between the GFS & European on the 500mb synoptic pattern over the Continental North America.

It's interesting that the Euro has shifted considerably towards the JMA.

Japanese model in its steering patterns is showing low pressures
that extend well off the eastern seaboard (weakness). It's hard to imagine anything getting past the eastern Caribbean with that kind of setup.

So if it's going to affect land areas, how fast it develops is the key factor as a weaker system will move more west.

Theoretically it would go back west due to rising 500mb heights downstream, but that's all hypothetical at this point. What the synoptic steering pattern is in 10 days is anyone's guess.

[cycloneye]

Now this is turning more serious for the islands as the main models are on consensus.Fellow friends in the islands,let's be prepared in case what the models are showing comes to fructition but still is not a stone thing until a system is formed as things in the atmospheric pattern can change in 10 days.

[Alyono]

Now this is turning more serious for the islands as the main models are on consensus.Fellow friends in the islands,let's be prepared in case what the models are showing comes to fructition but still is not a stone thing until a system is formed as things in the atmospheric pattern can change in 10 days.

with the SAL and unfavorable MJO?

I'd give this a 20% chance of development within the next 7 days. If it develops, it should not exceed weak to moderate TS intensity given the large scale unfavorable conditions. Maybe if it can get north of the deep tropics, it will have a chance to do more

[Alyono]

as I fully expected, the 6Z MU is coming in much weaker. No TC through 132 hours

[Ivanhater]

06z Gfs seems to be washing this out

[Alyono]

it's still developing it, but moving it a LOT faster. Expected given the SAL we have out there

[Ivanhater]

Yeah..pretty strong intensification now...coming in much further south it seems

[Ivanhater]

Looking downstream..looks like a possible gulf run again

[Ivanhater]

Major hurricane moving just south of Jamaica at 252 hours

[Ivanhater]

Major hurricane striking Belize at 300 hours...is a weakness in the gulf but storm is too far south to feel it..normal model swings in long range...but the big 2 models now showing a major hurricane in the Caribbean in July

[Kingarabian]

NASA model continues to show a lot of dry air.

[Alyono]

NASA model continues to show a lot of dry air.

that's why the BS flag is raised on the idea of this ever becoming an intense cane

What is the EC para showing by chance?

[Kingarabian]

NASA model continues to show a lot of dry air.

that's why the BS flag is raised on the idea of this ever becoming an intense cane

What is the EC para showing by chance?

Ive been waiting for it, but It's not out yet. Sometimes it's pushed out early, sometimes late.

But peep the GFS Parallel. Continues with no development.

EPS has also shifted south and are much more in line with the Euro Parallel. They have a TS skirting SA, and moving west. So I'm expecting another swing in the operational Euro.

[tolakram]

Head up those in the Islands, both Euro and GFS have a pretty strong storm moving through in the long range (8 days). Surprising to see this kind of agreement that far out.

[tolakram]

GFS Para has nothing at all, not even a vorticity signal of any kind.

[abajan]

Thats a pretty strong signal, with the GFS/GFS Ensembles, ECMWF, and ECMWF-Parallel all showing a hurricane approaching the Lesser Antilles in a little over a week. Only recent thing that is comparable is Emily in July 2005.

Interestingly enough, were TD4 to become Don (apparently unlikely) this would also be Emily. And there was yet another Emily that affected the Lesser Antilles. I remember that one well.

[abajan]

Head up those in the Islands, both Euro and GFS have a pretty strong storm moving through in the long range (8 days). Surprising to see this kind of agreement that far out.

[img]http://i.imgur.com/FBP1Jyo.png[img]

[img]http://i.imgur.com/K7hmhBo.png[img]

That's a bit disconcerting.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks pretty dry out there... but the GFS appears to be keeping the storm far south enough to keep it alive.

[Hurricane Andrew]

It looks like a window of opportunity may be building for this wave, in terms of SAL. Interesting...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... E5new.html

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro Parallel similar to the 00z Euro Operational run. Recurves just before hitting Peurto Rico. Intensities is at 982mb, 23mb higher. Moving slowly.