ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Kingarabian]

^Thanks, Luis. It looks like June as a whole was a solid +0.60 or even slightly warmer in 3.4 based on the monthly map. Also, the subsurface is slowly but steadily warming. It will be quite interesting to see the July model plume. I'll be quite surprised if it isn't warmer than the June plume. Some of the June runs for June, itself, were as cool as only +0.20!

Ecmwf conglomerate forecast ended up a bit low on the June forecast as actual values were on the upper end of the bunch.

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/char ... ure=plumes

ONI for AMJ should be out soon and I suspect it to be the first trimonthly of 0.5C given MAM was already 0.4C and March was cooler side.

Anyway the CPC will push MAM to 0.5?

[Ntxw]

^Thanks, Luis. It looks like June as a whole was a solid +0.60 or even slightly warmer in 3.4 based on the monthly map. Also, the subsurface is slowly but steadily warming. It will be quite interesting to see the July model plume. I'll be quite surprised if it isn't warmer than the June plume. Some of the June runs for June, itself, were as cool as only +0.20!

Ecmwf conglomerate forecast ended up a bit low on the June forecast as actual values were on the upper end of the bunch.

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/char ... ure=plumes

ONI for AMJ should be out soon and I suspect it to be the first trimonthly of 0.5C given MAM was already 0.4C and March was cooler side.

Anyway the CPC will push MAM to 0.5?

Not for awhile if it does. They update the climo base every 5 years now and I think the most recent update was just last year that granted 2014 Nino status again

[LarryWx]

^Thanks, Luis. It looks like June as a whole was a solid +0.60 or even slightly warmer in 3.4 based on the monthly map. Also, the subsurface is slowly but steadily warming. It will be quite interesting to see the July model plume. I'll be quite surprised if it isn't warmer than the June plume. Some of the June runs for June, itself, were as cool as only +0.20!

Ecmwf conglomerate forecast ended up a bit low on the June forecast as actual values were on the upper end of the bunch.

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/char ... ure=plumes

ONI for AMJ should be out soon and I suspect it to be the first trimonthly of 0.5C given MAM was already 0.4C and March was cooler side.

Thanks for posting that. So, as you said, even the Euro mean from June 1 for June was too cool. It looks like it's mean for June was near +0.4 vs an actual near +0.6. Also, note that both the May 1st and April 1st forecast means were closer to reality for June. So, perhaps even the Euro will revert warmer in the July 1st update? The June 1 Euro run mean for July is only near +0.3.

[Kingarabian]

PDO from NCDC comes in lower for June @ +0.17. But I'm sure JISAO will have it between +0.80C to +1.00C.

[weathaguyry]

PDO from NCDC comes in lower for June @ +0.17. But I'm sure JISAO will have it between +0.80C to +1.00C.

Wow, +0.17 is pretty low!

[Kingarabian]

PDO from NCDC comes in lower for June @ +0.17. But I'm sure JISAO will have it between +0.80C to +1.00C.

Wow, +0.17 is pretty low!

It's pretty moderate since it translates to at least a +0.80C from the more reliable source, JISAO. And if you look at the GIF I posted, the PDO actually looks warmer compared to the previous month. I don't know what NCDC is looking at.

[LarryWx]

I've detected a recent high bias for BOTH Darwin and Tahiti SLP on the GFS in trying to predict the SOI fwiw. So, they will wash out to some extent against each other. Which of the two locations has a stronger high bias is a tough call. The GFS overall suggests a relatively neutral SOI over the next 2 weeks when averaging all of the days with both locations likely having a higher than average SLP overall during the period. So, if July overall is to have anywhere near as strong a -SOI as June, things will need to either turn in the modeling for the next two weeks, my read on the GFS needs to be +SOI biased, or the period just afterward would need to be strongly -SOI. Today is the first +SOI day in 8 days.

[Kingarabian]

I've detected a recent high bias for BOTH Darwin and Tahiti SLP on the GFS in trying to predict the SOI fwiw. So, they will wash out to some extent against each other. Which of the two locations has a stronger high bias is a tough call. The GFS overall suggests a relatively neutral SOI over the next 2 weeks when averaging all of the days with both locations likely having a higher than average SLP overall during the period. So, if July overall is to have anywhere near as strong a -SOI as June, things will need to either turn in the modeling for the next two weeks, my read on the GFS needs to be +SOI biased, or the period just afterward would need to be strongly -SOI. Today is the first +SOI day in 8 days.

Yesterdays Euro runs showed some agreement with the GFS in regards to higher pressures at both Darwin and Tahiti.

[Kingarabian]

So the GFS for the next 5 days has been coming in with lower pressures compared to my averages over Tahiti, but higher pressures past 5 days all the way out to day 10, compared with the averages I calculated 2 days ago. The Euro has been trending with higher pressures over Tahiti as well compared to the averages I took 2 days ago.

For today, the four days of Tues-Fri the SOI will look to be from +5 to +11. Saturday is up in the air. The four days of Sunday to Wednesday, 9th to 12th, it should be -11 to -5 (low confidence). So the SOI should be neutral for the next 7 days. So I'm assuming the SOI for July will be -3 to -5 this day next week.

Code: Select all

GFS:

July 07: Tahiti: 1016.00, Darwin: 1013.00
July 08: Tahiti: 1015.00, Darwin: 1013.75
July 09: Tahiti: 1014.00, Darwin: 1014.00
July 10: Tahiti: 1013.25, Darwin: 1014.25
July 11: Tahiti: 1014.25, Darwin: 1014.75
July 12: Tahiti: 1016.50, Darwin: 1015.25
July 13: Tahiti: 1018.20, Darwin: 1015.50
July 14: Tahiti: 1018.25, Darwin: 1016.00


Code: Select all

Euro:

July 07: Tahiti: 1016.00, Darwin: 1013.00
July 08: Tahiti: 1015.00, Darwin: 1013.75
July 09: Tahiti: 1014.00, Darwin: 1014.00
July 10: Tahiti: 1013.25, Darwin: 1014.25
July 11: Tahiti: 1014.25, Darwin: 1014.75
July 12: Tahiti: 1016.50, Darwin: 1015.25
July 13: Tahiti: 1018.20, Darwin: 1015.50
July 14: Tahiti: 1018.25, Darwin: 1016.00


GFS and Euro were forecasting a 1016.75 pressure @ Tahiti for Tuesday, yesterday. Tahiti came in at 1015.25. 1.5 mb lower. So i would take their Tahiti pressure forecasts cautiously. Their Darwin pressures were accurate.

[Ntxw]

ONI for AMJ updated and is the first trimonthly of 0.5C. Meaning from April to June the ocean was warm enough for the onset of El Nino. To complete the cycle 4 more unbroken trimonthlies is needed to be official but it is an important milestone. Of note AMJ is rather early and often is a strong indicator a Nino may arise. Of all the cases with AMJ 0.5C or greater only one year did not achieve a Nino which was 1980.

[Kingarabian]

ONI for AMJ updated and is the first trimonthly of 0.5C. Meaning from April to June the ocean was warm enough for the onset of El Nino. To complete the cycle 4 more unbroken trimonthlies is needed to be official but it is an important milestone. Of note AMJ is rather early and often is a strong indicator a Nino may arise. Of all the cases with AMJ 0.5C or greater only one year did not achieve a Nino which was 1980.

So if we had 4 more tri monthlies, then April was the start of the El Nino?

[Ntxw]

ONI for AMJ updated and is the first trimonthly of 0.5C. Meaning from April to June the ocean was warm enough for the onset of El Nino. To complete the cycle 4 more unbroken trimonthlies is needed to be official but it is an important milestone. Of note AMJ is rather early and often is a strong indicator a Nino may arise. Of all the cases with AMJ 0.5C or greater only one year did not achieve a Nino which was 1980.

So if we had 4 more tri monthlies, then April was the start of the El Nino?

That would a correct assumption. It jives with mid April seeing 0.5C weekly readings and held steady since. The next trimonthly MJJ is the next one and barring dramatic cooling in the next few weeks we should get the second trimonthly come early August

[LarryWx]

ONI for AMJ updated and is the first trimonthly of 0.5C. Meaning from April to June the ocean was warm enough for the onset of El Nino. To complete the cycle 4 more unbroken trimonthlies is needed to be official but it is an important milestone. Of note AMJ is rather early and often is a strong indicator a Nino may arise. Of all the cases with AMJ 0.5C or greater only one year did not achieve a Nino which was 1980.

Great point! In all fairness, I'd include AMJ of 1993's +0.8 as a fail. However, even when including 1993 and when only considering AMJ analogs not coming off of a Niño the prior winter, I count 9 analogs that ended up as El Niño by no later than that fall and only that 1993 analog as a fail. I required a significant warming from the prior DJF (0.5+) to AMJ to count as an analog and required AMJ to be at least neutral positive (+0.1+). Then, if AMJ were warmer than +0.5, I subtracted out the difference at the subsequent peak to see if it would still have qualified as El Niño. Example: I counted 1957 AMJ as an analog because it had warmed significantly (1.0C) from the prior DJF and the prior fall/winter was not during El Niño. That AMJ was at +0.7, which is 0.2 warmer than AMJ of 2017. So, I subtracted 0.2 from the 1957-8 peak, which easily still would have been El Niño. The 9 successful oncoming first year El Niño analogs were these:

1951, 1957, 1963, 1965, 1972, 1982, 1997, 2002, 2009

As I said, only 1993 failed. So, only 10% failed.

[Ntxw]

ONI for AMJ updated and is the first trimonthly of 0.5C. Meaning from April to June the ocean was warm enough for the onset of El Nino. To complete the cycle 4 more unbroken trimonthlies is needed to be official but it is an important milestone. Of note AMJ is rather early and often is a strong indicator a Nino may arise. Of all the cases with AMJ 0.5C or greater only one year did not achieve a Nino which was 1980.

Great point! In all fairness, I'd include AMJ of 1993's +0.8 as a fail. However, even when including 1993 and when only considering AMJ analogs not coming off of a Niño the prior winter, I count 9 analogs that ended up as El Niño by no later than that fall and only that 1993 analog as a fail. I required a significant warming from the prior DJF (0.5+) to AMJ to count as an analog and required AMJ to be at least neutral positive (+0.1+). Then, if AMJ were warmer than +0.5, I subtracted out the difference at the subsequent peak to see if it would still have qualified as El Niño. Example: I counted 1957 AMJ as an analog because it had warmed significantly (1.0C) from the prior DJF and the prior fall/winter was not during El Niño. That AMJ was at +0.7, which is 0.2 warmer than AMJ of 2017. So, I subtracted 0.2 from the 1957-8 peak, which easily still would have been El Niño. The 9 successful oncoming first year El Niño analogs were these:

1951, 1957, 1963, 1965, 1972, 1982, 1997, 2002, 2009

As I said, only 1993 failed. So, only 10% failed.

You are right! I overlooked 1993 thanks for mentioning. Needless to say chances are quite good we may sneak out a weak Nino at the least.

[LarryWx]

ONI for AMJ updated and is the first trimonthly of 0.5C. Meaning from April to June the ocean was warm enough for the onset of El Nino. To complete the cycle 4 more unbroken trimonthlies is needed to be official but it is an important milestone. Of note AMJ is rather early and often is a strong indicator a Nino may arise. Of all the cases with AMJ 0.5C or greater only one year did not achieve a Nino which was 1980.

Great point! In all fairness, I'd include AMJ of 1993's +0.8 as a fail. However, even when including 1993 and when only considering AMJ analogs not coming off of a Niño the prior winter, I count 9 analogs that ended up as El Niño by no later than that fall and only that 1993 analog as a fail. I required a significant warming from the prior DJF (0.5+) to AMJ to count as an analog and required AMJ to be at least neutral positive (+0.1+). Then, if AMJ were warmer than +0.5, I subtracted out the difference at the subsequent peak to see if it would still have qualified as El Niño. Example: I counted 1957 AMJ as an analog because it had warmed significantly (1.0C) from the prior DJF and the prior fall/winter was not during El Niño. That AMJ was at +0.7, which is 0.2 warmer than AMJ of 2017. So, I subtracted 0.2 from the 1957-8 peak, which easily still would have been El Niño. The 9 successful oncoming first year El Niño analogs were these:

1951, 1957, 1963, 1965, 1972, 1982, 1997, 2002, 2009

As I said, only 1993 failed. So, only 10% failed.

You are right! I overlooked 1993 thanks for mentioning. Needless to say chances are quite good we may sneak out a weak Nino at the least.

You're welcome. To reinforce your idea of a good chance of at least a weak Niño based on analogs, an alternative set of analogs would be considering those years when DJF was negative and AMJ was positive. Here are those years: 1951, 1957, 1963, 1965, 1972,
1997, 2002, and 2009. All 8 went to El Niño and 7 of the 8 went to at least a moderate Niño. All 8 warmed by at least 0.7 from that AMJ to the Niño peak.

One more set of analogs: all but two AMJs that were +0.2+ and that weren't coming off of a Niño went onto El Niño:

Yes: 1951, 1957, 1963, 1965, 1972, 1979, 1982, 1991, 1994, 1997, 2002, 2004, and 2009

No: Only 1990 and 1993.

So, 13 yes and only 2 no. And 1990 just missed El Niño with its +0.2 in AMJ. One could argue that it could have been El Niño if it were any warmer than +0.2 in AMJ as is the case for 2017. All but 1993 warmed at least 0.2 from AMJ to the peak.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Understood, thank you for the clarification. Well that means the GOM being anomalously cool is a mystery.

Above average precipitation since the start of April is probably a starting point to solve the mystery.

We had a few late cold fronts which means we/the Northern Gulf had a decent North wind blowing into the Gulf. Not only was it cooler air, but the north wind lead to lots of upwelling in the GOM pulling up much cooler water.

[Kingarabian]

My latest pressure averages, noticeable differences.

GFS:

July 07: Tahiti: 15.75, Darwin: 12.00
July 08: Tahiti: 15.50, Darwin: 11.75
July 09: Tahiti: 14.75, Darwin: 13.25
July 10: Tahiti: 13.50, Darwin: 13.00
July 11: Tahiti: 13.00, Darwin: 13.75
July 12: Tahiti: 15.00, Darwin: 14.50
July 13: Tahiti: 16.50, Darwin: 15.25
July 14: Tahiti: 16.25, Darwin: 15.25
July 15: Tahiti: 15.75, Darwin: 15.25
July 16: Tahiti: 15.75, Darwin: 15.50

Euro:

July 07: Tahiti: 16.25, Darwin: 13.25
July 08: Tahiti: 15.00, Darwin: 13.00
July 09: Tahiti: 13.75, Darwin: 13.25
July 10: Tahiti: 12.50, Darwin: 13.50
July 11: Tahiti: 13.00, Darwin: 14.50
July 12: Tahiti: 15.50, Darwin: 14.25
July 13: Tahiti: 17.00, Darwin: 15.00
July 14: Tahiti: 15.50, Darwin: 15.75
July 15: Tahiti: 15.25, Darwin: 15.00
July 16: Tahiti: 14.50, Darwin: 14.00

Euro has been leaning with generally a -SOI next week compared to the GFS.

Btw since the start of this week, the GFS has been verifying badly in its pressures over Tahiti. In 4 days, it was an average of 1mb higher compared to the real pressures when you calculate the differences, sum them all and average them out:

GFS short term bias:

00z GFS Thursday July 6 2017:
Tahiti fcst: 15.50
Actual press: 15.00
LondPaddock: 15.60

00z GFS Wednesday July 5 2017:
Tahiti fcst: 16.30
Actual press: 16.00
LongPaddock: 1016.34

00z GFS Tuesday July 4 2017:
Tahiti fcst: 16.75
Actual press: 16.00
LongPaddock: 14.85

00z GFS Monday July 3 2017:
Tahiti fcst: 15.25
Actual press: 13.25
LongPaddock: 12.75

[Ntxw]

Per TAO buoys it looks like Monday could see +0.8C. This is pretty astounding surface warming given the shallow nature of the subsurface and lack of major WWBs.

[Kingarabian]

Per TAO buoys it looks like Monday could see +0.8C. This is pretty astounding surface warming given the shallow nature of the subsurface and lack of major WWBs.

3rd str8 week at borderline moderate... we can afford a few weeks below 0.5C now.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

You guys solve world hunger in here yet?