Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

[Siker]

I remember back in 2013 when the Operational GFS was gung ho about Tropical Storm Dorian becoming a hurricane while the Parallel GFS showed a sputtering mess. Think the Parallel actually took over for the Operational mid-storm, fun times...

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

EPS has also shifted south and are much more in line with the Euro Parallel. They have a TS skirting SA, and moving west. So I'm expecting another swing in the operational Euro.

However, only two of the 70 ensemble members of these models showed a hurricane forming in their 0Z Friday runs, and only about 20% of the members of the European model ensemble predicted that the African wave would even develop into a tropical depression.

-Dr. Jeff Masters



That's why it's very important to pay close attention to the ensembles. EPS was considerably less enthusiastic and the OP Euro followed suit.
Will be interesting to see what the 12z EPS has.

You'll be hard pressed to find the ECMWF ensembles enthused about any storm ever. They're notorious for being conservative. (Edit: for Atlantic tropical cyclones at least)

[Kingarabian]

EPS has also shifted south and are much more in line with the Euro Parallel. They have a TS skirting SA, and moving west. So I'm expecting another swing in the operational Euro.

However, only two of the 70 ensemble members of these models showed a hurricane forming in their 0Z Friday runs, and only about 20% of the members of the European model ensemble predicted that the African wave would even develop into a tropical depression.

-Dr. Jeff Masters



That's why it's very important to pay close attention to the ensembles. EPS was considerably less enthusiastic and the OP Euro followed suit.
Will be interesting to see what the 12z EPS has.

You'll be hard pressed to find the ECMWF ensembles enthused about any storm ever. They're notorious for being conservative.

I've seen them deepen EPAC storms quite a bit this year.

[Siker]

EPS has also shifted south and are much more in line with the Euro Parallel. They have a TS skirting SA, and moving west. So I'm expecting another swing in the operational Euro.

However, only two of the 70 ensemble members of these models showed a hurricane forming in their 0Z Friday runs, and only about 20% of the members of the European model ensemble predicted that the African wave would even develop into a tropical depression.

-Dr. Jeff Masters



That's why it's very important to pay close attention to the ensembles. EPS was considerably less enthusiastic and the OP Euro followed suit.
Will be interesting to see what the 12z EPS has.

You'll be hard pressed to find the ECMWF ensembles enthused about any storm ever. They're notorious for being conservative.

The most enthusiastic I've ever seen them was for that wave that never developed last year . This wave could be analogous to that one in that forward speed and dry air turn out to be much, but of course that can be said of numerous waves throughout every season.

[Alyono]

-Dr. Jeff Masters



That's why it's very important to pay close attention to the ensembles. EPS was considerably less enthusiastic and the OP Euro followed suit.
Will be interesting to see what the 12z EPS has.

You'll be hard pressed to find the ECMWF ensembles enthused about any storm ever. They're notorious for being conservative.

I've seen them deepen EPAC storms quite a bit this year.

they're not conservative. You are right, kingarabian, they can and do indicate development often. Not sure why anyone will make a statement such as the ensembles are not enthused about anything. They tend to be unenthused when no development is likely

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

-Dr. Jeff Masters



That's why it's very important to pay close attention to the ensembles. EPS was considerably less enthusiastic and the OP Euro followed suit.
Will be interesting to see what the 12z EPS has.

You'll be hard pressed to find the ECMWF ensembles enthused about any storm ever. They're notorious for being conservative.

The most enthusiastic I've ever seen them was for that wave that never developed last year . This wave could be analogous to that one in that forward speed and dry air turn out to be much, but of course that can be said of numerous waves throughout every season.

Yeah, that was 92L. Had very strong agreement to become a potent hurricane after emerging off the coast. Fell victim to the West Africa barrier. Will have to watch for that here. 12z Euro dropping the storm may be a sign of such, or it could just be typical run to run variability.

[gatorcane]

The 18Z GFS has this moving noticeably slower across MDR towards Lesser Antilles than 12Z. Looks like it will develop it again. Out through 120 hours so far.

[Kingarabian]

Big difference compared to the 00z EPS, as the 12z EPS have virtually no members showing development. It looks like they develop this wave in the far eastern Pacific though. GFS Parallel may be on to something.

[gatorcane]

Already slightly stronger on 18Z GFS by hour 150 than 12Z and MUCH slower.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS Parallel continues to show nothing.

[TheStormExpert]

For now I'm siding with this never developing and possibly developing in the E. PAC down the road.

[gatorcane]

This may end up as a hurricane into the Lesser Antilles on this 18Z GFS run 156 hours at 1002MB and intensifying.

168 hours:

[USTropics]

18z GFS really slows this down compared to the last four runs:

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS looks at least 500 miles slower than 12Z. Also big trough along east coast of US and Western Atlantic. Looks to be heading WNW.

[Hurricane Andrew]

GFS 400-700mb RH shows the storm struggling with dry air through its lifetime, a change from previous runs.

[USTropics]

Landfall in Puerto Rico this run:

[gatorcane]

Looks like it may beeline WNW toward SE Bahamas / Eastern Cuba after 240 hours under Bermuda High.

[RL3AO]

GFS 400-700mb RH shows the storm struggling with dry air through its lifetime, a change from previous runs.

Dry air to the north won't cause nearly the same issue as dry air from an SAL outbreak catching it from behind (ala TD 4).

[SFLcane]

In SE Bahamas moving wnw

Edit.. recurving

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

As far as the background state is concerned, the wave will have it pretty easy. It's on the back side of a SAL outbreak and embedded within a huge moisture envelope. A potent CCKW is currently passing through the East Pacific and will continue eastward over the next several days, intercepting the wave in the central Atlantic. In addition, although a strong suppressed MJO is positioned across the eastern Atlantic today, it should quickly be replaced by a convectively-enhanced MJO by next week.

Whether the GFS solutions of a strong hurricane in the East Caribbean pan out is to be determined, but I do think there's good odds for a tropical cyclone in the central Atlantic next week.