ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Ntxw]

You guys solve world hunger in here yet?

. Some of the SOI information by Larry and King are some of the best there is you can find. Few forecasters even provide such data! We're quite blessed to have such an extensive ENSO thread and aside from the CPC, you won't find more updates than here!

[Kingarabian]

You guys solve world hunger in here yet?

Solve ENSO and you just may solve world hunger

[Kingarabian]

Check out the latest subsurface frame:

http://i.imgur.com/u1X2Lrr.gif

Plethora of +1.0C anomalies spreading across the ENSO regions and now we're seeing +2.0C anomalies under Nino 3 and near Nino 1+2. This is the result of the easterlies becoming weak. I'm sure we'll see near moderate Nino readings at the buoys for the rest of July as long as the easterlies remain calm.

But there's a problem and this is why the one step forward and two steps back thing may come in play once again. Next week is a crucial week for the SOI to drop negative again after this current positive burst, and is important if July is to come in as a negative (since I don't see 1016mb dominating Darwin for the last 2 weeks of July). GFS and Euro continue to be all over the place in what will happen in regards to the SOI next week. One run they show a negative SOI and the next run they come in with positive SOI.

Pro-longed -SOI is a very strong indicator of the easterlies remaining weak over the equatorial pacific. If the SOI continues to climb back towards positive territory, then there is a chance the easterlies re intensify thus cooling the subsurface anomalies.

The 12z Euro pressures averages today for next week is back to a positive setup.

[dexterlabio]

I really hate to use the "Modicci" or "Modoki" term but with the Nino 3.4 region warming steadily and Nino 1+2 cooling, I think a central-based El Nino is now the most likely outcome. What its possible effects on the global weather pattern, particularly on the tropical cyclone season in ATL/EPAC/WPAC, are still unclear IMO. I know 2004 is the solid textbook example of Modoki for most people, but personally I would rather see a bigger sample of similar Modoki years to be more conclusive.

[WeatherEmperor]

I really hate to use the "Modicci" or "Modoki" term but with the Nino 3.4 region warming steadily and Nino 1+2 cooling, I think a central-based El Nino is now the most likely outcome. What its possible effects on the global weather pattern, particularly on the tropical cyclone season in ATL/EPAC/WPAC, are still unclear IMO. I know 2004 is the solid textbook example of Modoki for most people, but personally I would rather see a bigger sample of similar Modoki years to be more conclusive.

1+2 has been warming the last few weeks. Nowhere near Modoki levels.


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[LarryWx]

Levi's 3.4 has warmed sharply the last 2 days to near +0.65, which is the warmest since that late April spike and it has tended to run 0.1 to 0.2 cooler than the weeklies recently fwiw:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... nino34.png

[Hurricaneman]

Levi's 3.4 has warmed sharply the last 2 days to near +0.65, which is the warmest since that late April spike and it has tended to run 0.1 to 0.2 cooler than the weeklies recently fwiw:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... nino34.png

This is not going to be a traditional El Niño but closer to a madoki one looking at the CDAS numbers

[Ntxw]

I really hate to use the "Modicci" or "Modoki" term but with the Nino 3.4 region warming steadily and Nino 1+2 cooling, I think a central-based El Nino is now the most likely outcome. What its possible effects on the global weather pattern, particularly on the tropical cyclone season in ATL/EPAC/WPAC, are still unclear IMO. I know 2004 is the solid textbook example of Modoki for most people, but personally I would rather see a bigger sample of similar Modoki years to be more conclusive.

1+2 has been warming the last few weeks. Nowhere near Modoki levels.


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Oceans aside, the atmosphere has yet to behave like a modoki. You would see convection (walker cell) centered over near the dateline, where it has been rather dry. Instead it's wetter closer to South America.

[dexterlabio]

I really hate to use the "Modicci" or "Modoki" term but with the Nino 3.4 region warming steadily and Nino 1+2 cooling, I think a central-based El Nino is now the most likely outcome. What its possible effects on the global weather pattern, particularly on the tropical cyclone season in ATL/EPAC/WPAC, are still unclear IMO. I know 2004 is the solid textbook example of Modoki for most people, but personally I would rather see a bigger sample of similar Modoki years to be more conclusive.

1+2 has been warming the last few weeks. Nowhere near Modoki levels.


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I was basing the cooling statement on the CDAS chart showing the Nino 1+2 SSTs diving to negative, but I was advised before to be cautious with the daily fluctuations. Either way, Modoki or no Modoki, I still don't think Modoki effects on global weather are determined.

[cycloneye]

Here is a contrary message from all the recent El Nino comming discussion:

@MJVentrice
The tropical atmosphere over the Pacific continues to be a lean towards La Nina, even though CPC declared La Nina over back in February.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/883666988211601412

[Yellow Evan]

Latest MEI for May was over 1.0C though.

[Ntxw]

Latest MEI for May was over 1.0C though.

1.455. That's really high. More than anything 2014 had which was a weak Nino and almost as high as the 2009 event's peak of 1.52. I think Mike Ventrice's index might be too focused on the tropical Pacific particularly rainfall patterns between the Maritime and the central Pacific, though to be fair I'm not certain what goes into his index

[MississippiWx]

Latest MEI for May was over 1.0C though.

1.455. That's really high. More than anything 2014 had which was a weak Nino and almost as high as the 2009 event's peak of 1.52. I think Mike Ventrice's index might be too focused on the tropical Pacific particularly rainfall patterns between the Maritime and the central Pacific, though to be fair I'm not certain what goes into his index

I have never been impressed with Ventrice, particularly on the ENSO topic.

[RL3AO]

I have never been impressed with Ventrice, particularly on the ENSO topic.

As in not impressed with his indices? He works for IBM/TWC. His job is to develop new ways to analyze long range forecasts for their (mostly) energy clients. Some of them work. Some of them have issues.

[MississippiWx]

I have never been impressed with Ventrice, particularly on the ENSO topic.

As in not impressed with his indices? He works for IBM/TWC. His job is to develop new ways to analyze long range forecasts for their (mostly) energy clients. Some of them work. Some of them have issues.

His indices. I was unaware of his job.
If it' a trial and error kind of thing, then that makes a little more sense. I've never been impressed with his ENSO indices or long range winter weather predictions.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

You guys solve world hunger in here yet?

. Some of the SOI information by Larry and King are some of the best there is you can find. Few forecasters even provide such data! We're quite blessed to have such an extensive ENSO thread and aside from the CPC, you won't find more updates than here!

I know im just messin! You guys are great and have taught me so much. Appreciative of all the data you guys pour over. Im on board for a Modiki for sure. More importantly a cool 1+2 region.

[LarryWx]

The bottom line imo is that the official measure of ENSO, 3.4 temp. anoms, is the #1 thing to use.
Today's 5 day averaged map is now up to ~+0.80. So, like ntxw, I'm leaning to +0.8 Monday. Meanwhile, the +SOIs continue for now with overall high SLP at both places (neutral SOIs averaged out) in the forecast.

[Kingarabian]

I wish Ventrice worked on improving key ENSO variables that actually matter. The current variables that we know of are still pretty complicated and mysterious in how and why they work. So if someone with all his resources can invest them in these key indicators, then I would think it would do a lot of good.

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/883747758691274753




@ 200mb, looks like a strong CCKW will be over the Nino regions throughout July and into August. So naturally you would expect the Nino regions to remain quite warm regardless of what happens with the SOI.

@ 850mb the 12z Euro is calling for easterlies throughout 240hrs+ over the equator. while the GFS has westerlies throughout 16 days. Quite a difference, but the Euro has been verifying badly in its trade burst predictions from last week.

[Kingarabian]

Strong indication of a -SOI tomorrow till the 12th. Lets see if itll be enough to bring the SOI further negative.