Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Ivan,

reading your post without the image. If it's between Cuba and Jamaica turns north, hot does it end up in the Bahamas, the N. Carolina. Does it miss S Florida all together.

[weathaguyry]

Ivan,

reading your post without the image. If it's between Cuba and Jamaica turns north, hot does it end up in the Bahamas, the N. Carolina. Does it miss S Florida all together.

Yes, according to this GFS run

[Ivanhater]

Ivan,

reading your post without the image. If it's between Cuba and Jamaica turns north, hot does it end up in the Bahamas, the N. Carolina. Does it miss S Florida all together.

It does..east coast trough is cutting off and high is building back from the east and drives it into North Carolina. Interesting run for sure

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Thanks to both of you for the response Ivan you still up in the panhandel area

[Ivanhater]

Thanks to both of you for the response Ivan you still up in the panhandel area

Yes, in Pensacola for hurricane season..good to talk to you again!

Wave coming off Africa now, so hopefully that helps the models a bit

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Same here,

The east coast trough you mentioned, would that not be a more early fall pattern verses early July. Just seems a bit strange to be talking east coast trough this time of year.

[Ivanhater]

Same here,

The east coast trough you mentioned, would that not be a more early fall pattern verses early July. Just seems a bit strange to be talking east coast trough this time of year.

Seems to be a bit persistent but fighting an equally persistent Bermuda high this time of year as well...so far in the last 2 days,,we have seen model runs from Belize, the Gulf to east coast

[Hurricaneman]

I would think the NHC would bring out the yellow 5 day at 2

[MississippiWx]

Hard to believe this isn't the GFS up to its old tricks. The Euro showed it once and the CMC has been off and on with a system. Now that the wave has moved over water, models should start zeroing in on what will happen with it before it reaches the Lesser Antilles.

[floridasun78]

i think nhc will wait untill late next week to put circle out no system can make it in topical now until dry air move out and shear drop more

[RL3AO]

i think nhc will wait untill late next week to put circle out no system can make it in topical now until dry air move out and shear drop more

Late next week? It'll be in the Caribbean by then. Saying it has a 20% chance to develop within 5 days it not a difficult threshold to meet.

[tarheelprogrammer]

GFS trending weaker in the short range. A repeat of TD4?

[TheStormExpert]

12z GFS coming in weaker through 126hrs., lets see how the rest of the run goes.

[SFLcane]

lol you'll go nuts following daily GFS trending weaker this run.

[abajan]

i think nhc will wait untill late next week to put circle out no system can make it in topical now until dry air move out and shear drop more

I don't think dry air will be a problem. Have a look at this video.

[gatorcane]

Into Belize this run. The fact the GFS delays development is a big red flag. Skeptical we get development out of this at all.

[SFLcane]

Bla....

[cycloneye]

Wave has been introduced.Is along the coast.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS ensembles are still quite bullish but perhaps slightly less than 06Z. One week image below:

[cycloneye]

Text of the wave introduction on the TWD:

A tropical wave has been introduced to this analysis. This wave
extends its axis along the African coast from 14N15W to 06N14W.
Abundant moisture prevails within this wave, as noted in TPW
imagery.