ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

They took the floater down off from SSD too lol

[Aric Dunn]

just when you think you have seen an overshooting top... the overshooting top gets over shot by about a few degrees..lol

[RL3AO]

[AtlanticWind]

Do we have any idea what the pressure is at this point?

[RL3AO]

Do we have any idea what the pressure is at this point?

Unless there's a ship report, we're gonna be stuck with model analysis.

[Aric Dunn]

Do we have any idea what the pressure is at this point?

from bouy and ship reports.. the center is likely around 1014 to 1016 with background pressures around 1020 ..

[Aric Dunn]

Do we have any idea what the pressure is at this point?

Unless there's a ship report, we're gonna be stuck with model analysis.

[tarheelprogrammer]

It is not dead yet, but we will see if conditions stay good on the other side for it. GFS seems to be making the shear follow ex-TD4 from where it is now to the Gulf of Mexico.

[Nimbus]

Alternatively if the lowest pressure is on the edge in the SW quadrant, then the convection is primarily due to the light shear fanning up moisture over a shallow low.
When the shear eases the convection goes poof when the shear stops in that scenario.

How do we tell the difference between that and a redeveloping system again?

[Aric Dunn]

well if it dies after this.. I have to say its the best last gasp I have ever seen lol

[Aric Dunn]

Alternatively if the lowest pressure is on the edge in the SW quadrant, then the convection is primarily due to the light shear fanning up moisture over a shallow low.
When the shear eases the convection goes poof when the shear stops in that scenario.

How do we tell the difference between that and a redeveloping system again?

we dont without direct data. though there is a closed circ in there right where the deepest coldest convection is. soo. if this convection is in anyway associated with surface convergence now then it wont matter if the divergence stops..

[TexasBreeze]

It has more convection associated with it than Cindy did around its core at landfall. It doesn't look too bad.

[Nimbus]

Alternatively if the lowest pressure is on the edge in the SW quadrant, then the convection is primarily due to the light shear fanning up moisture over a shallow low.
When the shear eases the convection goes poof when the shear stops in that scenario.

How do we tell the difference between that and a redeveloping system again?

we dont without direct data. though there is a closed circ in there right where the deepest coldest convection is. soo. if this convection is in anyway associated with surface convergence now then it wont matter if the divergence stops..

So thats a tiny vort with a 29.235 surface pressure under the deepest convection?

[storm4u]

Everytime i look at the satellite it looks better

[SouthDadeFish]

Again, all I see is a giant blob of convection with no structure. We've seen this before... I'm not expecting much. It will likely fizzle out again tomorrow, before any surface circulation can become sustained.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Evening all,

I have really not paid much attention to old depression # 4. Been watching the wave just coming of Africa. But must admit old washed up # 4 is looking better this evening. Lets see if it can hold the blow up of storms through the night.

[Alyono]

The models say the vorticity/wave will wash out over the next day or two. Not one GFSE member is on board with a closed low. The models will very likely be correct, but my newly degreed eyes are intrigued this evening.

the EC was keeping the vorticity a bit better than I expected.

Definitely a non zero chance of development

[Weather150]

Let's see if it can maintain the convection, blowing up big thunderstorms currently.

[AtlanticWind]

See if any banding develops also

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Please correct me if I am wrong, but would you not need a low level of circulation to have any type of banding or inflow towards the COC.