Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

[SFLcane]

[Weather150]

Funny thing is none of the 18z GFS ensembles showed it going that far into the Gulf and impacting Mexico.

[Kingarabian]

GFS Parallel is a good mean between the GFS and Euro/Euro Parallel.

[Hurricaneman]

Looking at satellite images this system looks like a go to me and maybe just maybe the GFS is right with its depiction through 5 days by the looks of it but beyond that is a crapshoot

[Weather150]

Anything at 2am going to come from the NHC for this?

[PTrackerLA]

Would like to see the Euro come around before I fully get on board with this potential but the Lesser Antilles need to keep a close watch next week. I know the GFS has been notorious for it's phantom western Caribbean systems in past years but I don't remember many phantom MDR/"Caribbean Cruisers." I'm still pretty amazed at the modeling for Hurricane Matthew well over a week out from the Caribbean last year (which they did a great job with in the long range,) it's just been so quiet for several years. I wonder what we'll be seeing in the models for peak season .

[AutoPenalti]

I'm still at LAX waiting for my next flight back to Miami, so I'm up right now. I'll post it if needed.

[AutoPenalti]

Running

[AutoPenalti]

72 hrs...

A 1015mb low

[AutoPenalti]

96hrs

Euro drops it.

[Kingarabian]

Kind of figured the Euro would drop it. We'll see if the EPS has any thing new within an hour.

[cycloneye]

06z GFS begins development at 84 hours around 9.7N-46.2W.

[Ivanhater]

06z Gfs dropping this

[cycloneye]

Like a DAVID 1979 scenario,it plunges into Hispanola as a powerful Hurricane but the good news is over 168 hours.

[Ivanhater]

Oops ..I was looking at gfs para..gfs in southern Bahamas as a major hurricane

[cycloneye]

Oops ..I was looking at gfs para..gfs in southern Bahamas as a major hurricane

One thing to give to GFS is the very consistent way it continues to develop this wave.

[Ivanhater]

Yes Luis...moving north in Bahamas at 264...looks like a Carolina strike again

[Ivanhater]

Major hurricane strike on the outer banks...gotta love model swings from Mexico to the outer banks in one run

[cycloneye]

Latest image of wave.

[cycloneye]

From the San Juan NWS in the morning discussion:

The ECMWF and the GFS diverge in their solutions over the
weekend, with the ECMWF forecasting typical tropical trade winds
and good rains on Friday night or Saturday, and the GFS
developing a tropical system on Wednesday in the southern tropical
North Atlantic and bringing it south of the U.S. Virgin Islands
on Saturday and Puerto Rico Saturday afternoon through Sunday
morning. The GFS has not been perfectly consistent with its
solution from run to run and the 08/18Z run had only a moderately
strong low pressure moving through the area. Therefore still
consider this a low-confidence scenario. Should it develop as the
09/00z model indicates. Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands
could expect as early as Saturday strong gusty winds, heavy rains
with a high potential for the most widespread flooding of the
season and agitated seas of over 8 feet, accompanied by a high
risk of rip currents. The rains could last through Monday, 17
July.Stay Tuned.