Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

[cycloneye]

@RyanMaue
GFS 00z develops wave just now emerging off Africa in 5 days near the Islands. Plausible, worth watching.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/883911152648015873

[Dougiefresh]

Major hurricane strike on the outer banks...gotta love model swings from Mexico to the outer banks in one run

Its been very consistent through the MDR and a strike on the Lesser Antilles though but that's more within model guidance accuracy rather than being 16 days out.

[cycloneye]

From the 8 AM EDT TWD has interesting things to look at:

A tropical wave is just offshore the coast of Africa along a
position from near 16N17.5W to 11N18W and to near 06.5N18W. It is
moving westward at about 10 kt. Both water vapor imagery and the
Total Precipitable Water (TPW) imagery animation confirm that deep
tropical moisture continues to increase over and near the
environment of this wave, mainly attributed to it being entrenched
within a very pronounced monsoonal flow that has set up along and
off the coast of W Africa. With this moisture in place, deep
convection near the wave has increased since 24 hours ago.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 240 nm
west of the wave from 08N-11N. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is within 30 nm of 13N24W.

[gatorcane]

Wow GFS is not backing down and dropping this system like I thought. In fact it is bringing timeframe in. Worth watching as it just may develop.

[TheStormExpert]

Still no mention in the TWO's from the NHC. They're probably waiting to see if the Euro eventually jumps back on board or a few more runs of the GFS.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Respectable ensemble support:

[abajan]

Still no mention in the TWO's from the NHC. They're probably waiting to see if the Euro eventually jumps back on board or a few more runs of the GFS.

I really expected them to give it a 10% chance of TC formation in 5 days. I can't imagine the 2 PM TWO not stating at least that high of a percentage, even without the Euro showing anything.

[ronjon]

06z para GFS starting to develop it...Has a 1009 mb low in the southern LAs at 168 hrs.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfsp&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2017070906&fh=162&xpos=0&ypos=365

[NDG]

I've been thinking overnight, is the GFS really that bad? Is the Euro really that good? The answer is neither. True that the GFS was bombing TD 4 at one point but at the same time the Euro was not picking up on the development of TD 4 or at least it dropped it for a while.
The same scenario happened with TS Bret.

[cycloneye]

[Hurricane Andrew]

Very strong signal from latest GEFS, GFS and CMC consistently develops this, while the GFSP has a weak reflection and the ECM's 00z shows no development at all. The picture for development should become somewhat clearer over the D2-D5 period, I hope.

How were the ECM ENS?

[Alyono]

I do not understand how one can say no chance of this developing. While I do not think it will develop, there is most certainly a non zero chance of developing. Saying there is no chance of development is like saying Suharto was not a dictator

[dexterlabio]

Does the Euro not showing any development have something to do with its MJO/CCKW forecast, putting the Atlantic under suppressed phase over the next several days? Looks like Euro versus everyone else.

[blp]

Very strong signal from latest GEFS, GFS and CMC consistantly develo this, while the GFSP has a weak reflection and the ECM's 00z shows no development at all. The picture for development should become somewhat clearer over the D2-D5 period, I hope.

How were the ECM ENS?

The Ukmet, FIM and JMA also have this now.

[wxman57]

I've been thinking overnight, is the GFS really that bad? Is the Euro really that good? The answer is neither. True that the GFS was bombing TD 4 at one point but at the same time the Euro was not picking up on the development of TD 4 or at least it dropped it for a while.
The same scenario happened with TS Bret.

The Euro was correct with TD4 - it really barely qualified as a TD for a short time.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Very strong signal from latest GEFS, GFS and CMC consistantly develo this, while the GFSP has a weak reflection and the ECM's 00z shows no development at all. The picture for development should become somewhat clearer over the D2-D5 period, I hope.

How were the ECM ENS?

The Ukmet, FIM and JMA also have this now.

Yeah, FIM brutalizes PR and then sics it into the MidAlt coast. Still, hasn't that model been rather...innacurate with TCs?

[wxman57]

ASCAT indicates an LLC as of last evening, and stronger winds than TD4 ever had. I think it's going to be an "interesting" hurricane season...

[Hurricane Andrew]

ASCAT indicates an LLC as of last evening, and stronger winds than TD4 ever had. I think it's going to be an "interesting" hurricane season...

Do you have the ASCAT link? That's another one that I lost...silly me.

[Bocadude85]

I've been thinking overnight, is the GFS really that bad? Is the Euro really that good? The answer is neither. True that the GFS was bombing TD 4 at one point but at the same time the Euro was not picking up on the development of TD 4 or at least it dropped it for a while.
The same scenario happened with TS Bret.

The Euro was correct with TD4 - it really barely qualified as a TD for a short time.

Yes but the Euro also developed this wave into a strong hurricane at one point, so in my opinion if this wave doesn't develop then both models were in error.

[Ivanhater]

ASCAT indicates an LLC as of last evening, and stronger winds than TD4 ever had. I think it's going to be an "interesting" hurricane season...

With the waves coming off Africa the way they have the past few weeks, that is a good bet!