ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Should be retagged as an invest

[LarryWx]

Interestingly, the 12Z Ukmet has this regenerating into a TC in the E GOM on 7/14 after crossing S FL on Thursday 7/13. Then it moves the TC WNW into the W GOM on 7/16.

[Hammy]

Well last hour or so.. clear signs of cu cloud lines forming on south and west side a developing circ pressure may be dropping some and allowing the wind field to close off. Looks rather good at the moment in terms of developing TC compared to so many others that were less organized.

I agree with you Aric.

Looking at ASCAT, it does appear something is trying to get going.



Earlier showed a clearly defined wave axis, but mainly a SE to NE shift in winds, and not much more.



Less of a wind shift this time, but there are some wind barbs there from the SSW, and a much larger area of near-calm wind closer to the convection, so it appears that the relative spin has at least increased. The question though, as the models don't show regeneration at the moment, is whether this indicates future organization, or if the weaker winds to the north potentially indicate increasing divergence.

[northjaxpro]

It will not take much more convective re-fires to get a surface reflection. As pointed out above, there are subtle signs already showing that the early stages of a redevelopment of a surface reflection may be trying to start now.

So, model support is increasing as EURO, UKMET and the Canadian all show regeneration, with the EURO showing a decent TC later in the week. I think NHC may make mention of this entity in their next TWO or sometime within the next 12 hours or so for sure. Also, they may possibly tag it as an invest again if the current trends continue. We shall see.

[Kingarabian]

It will not take much more convective re-fires to get a surface reflection. As pointed out above, there are subtle signs already showing that the early stages of a redevelopment of a surface reflection may be trying to start now.

So, model support is increasing as EURO, UKMET the Canadian all show regeneration, with the EURO showing a decent TC later in the week. I think NHC may make mention of this entity in their next TWO or sometime within the next 12 hours or so for sure. Also, they may possibly tag it as an invest again if the current trends continue. We shall see.

Hey NorthJaxPro, did you mean UKMET showing a decent TC?

[northjaxpro]

Yes, I meant the UKMET. Sorry about that error. Thanks for catching that for me.

[Kingarabian]

Yes, I meant the UKMET. Sorry about that error. Thanks for catching that for me.

The Euro is showing a well defined vort in EGOM, so it could show what the UKMET is showing in a few more runs.

[GCANE]

Cumulus pretty much covering the CoC now.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, I got the latest runs of the EURO jumbled in my mind with what the UKMET had in its latest run. The latest EURO run indeed shows a more vigorous vort compared to earlier Kingarabian. I agree with you that the EURO may be coming around to the UKMET..

[Nimbus]

Cumulus pretty much covering the CoC now.

Its pulling away from the shear with the large plume of convection to the east.
Should be interesting to watch on IR tonight.

[Aric Dunn]

there is now a larger and expanding area of easterly moving CU clouds on the south side .... the west and nW there are two newly formed early stage bands that will likely start firing convection shortly..

[gfsperpendicular]

there is now a larger and expanding area of easterly moving CU clouds on the south side .... the west and nW there are two newly formed early stage bands that will likely start firing convection shortly..

If it can wrap it closer to the CoC than maybe it'll start to close off again.

[GCANE]

Buoy west of the MCV

[Aric Dunn]

its now in Conus view for rapid scan now I can go loopy watching a frame every few minutes lol

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[Aric Dunn]

its honestly the best its looked its entire life time.. lol

[AutoPenalti]

its honestly the best its looked its entire life time.. lol

Sounds like someone's excited

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, a gradual fall in barometric pressure for the past 6-8 hours. This entity no doubt is seemingly on the road to re-generating if these trends we are seeing now continue in the short to medium term.

Also, the remnants are pulling farther away from the ULL to its north and northeast. It looks as if the ULL is just stationary for the time being.

[Alyono]

UKMET now developing this in the Gulf

Image?

go to this site

https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

12Z UK at day 7 has a gradually intensifying system that appears to be TX bound

[RL3AO]

Does appear to have developed some lower level westerlies this afternoon.

[Siker]

~9 EPS members bring this back to TS strength near the Bahamas or Gulf.