Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I believe yesterday evenings GFS run had a similar track, but the end result was N C.

[RL3AO]

And then up to Long Island at 966mb. A great GFS hype model run.

[Hurricane Andrew]

And D14-D15, decides to pay me a visit. Geez. Just thnking about how those 24hrs would be for our county emergency departments is terrifying. Talk about being pushed to the limit.

Remember though, this is one run of one model, with a lead time of over 300 hours.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Good thing it is only the GFS-OP showing this.

[storm4u]

Gfs has the center over my head at 348 good things its way out there

[Kingarabian]

I would rather be in the crosshairs in South Florida this far out knowing it will change as we get closer. Hope the GFS has lost its mind.

Feels like pre-Matthew all over again.

Matthew had the full ECMWF support.

Pretty sure NCEP is nervous and they're afraid this will be a massive bust by the GFS. I'm sure they can't wait to make the GFS Parallel operational.

[cycloneye]

The bottomline for the folks in the islands is In the short term they have to watch how things progress in real time with this wave.

[weathaguyry]

Oh yay, 965mb hurricane into Central Long Island Also note that tides will be above average, since the Full moon is on the 22nd I believe

[Alyono]

the one thing that gives me pause is now much the Japanese model develops this. It is usually one of the most conservative models.

I'd give it a 30 percent chance of development within the next 7 days

[weathaguyry]

And D14-D15, decides to pay me a visit. Geez. Just thnking about how those 24hrs would be for our county emergency departments is terrifying. Talk about being pushed to the limit.

Remember though, this is one run of one model, with a lead time of over 300 hours.

Full moon is around that time too

[Hurricane Andrew]

the one thing that gives me pause is now much the Japanese model develops this. It is usually one of the most conservative models.

I'd give it a 30 percent chance of development within the next 7 days

What do you thnk about the shear issue? The GFS clears the way, while the GFS-P maintains a sandblaster aimed down this thing's throat. Current CIMSS analysis suggusts a blockaded Caribbean, with shear ranging between 20 and 50 knots, albeit the strongest shear is west of Hispanola's axis.

[gatorcane]

The bottomline for the folks in the islands is In the short term they have to watch how things progress in real time with this wave.

Yes that is true considering how fast this system moves across to the Lesser Antilles. The GFS has a 972mb hurricane into the Lesser Antilles in just 132 hours from now.

[Kingarabian]

the one thing that gives me pause is now much the Japanese model develops this. It is usually one of the most conservative models.

I'd give it a 30 percent chance of development within the next 7 days

What do you thnk about the shear issue? The GFS clears the way, while the GFS-P maintains a sandblaster aimed down this thing's throat. Current CIMSS analysis suggusts a blockaded Caribbean, with shear ranging between 20 and 50 knots, albeit the strongest shear is west of Hispanola's axis.

Its credible considering the state of ENSO.

[Alyono]

the one thing that gives me pause is now much the Japanese model develops this. It is usually one of the most conservative models.

I'd give it a 30 percent chance of development within the next 7 days

What do you thnk about the shear issue? The GFS clears the way, while the GFS-P maintains a sandblaster aimed down this thing's throat. Current CIMSS analysis suggusts a blockaded Caribbean, with shear ranging between 20 and 50 knots, albeit the strongest shear is west of Hispanola's axis.

50 kts seems unreasonable. That is strong el niño levels, or if we have a strong EPAC cyclone. We should not have either next week

[RL3AO]

the one thing that gives me pause is now much the Japanese model develops this. It is usually one of the most conservative models.

I'd give it a 30 percent chance of development within the next 7 days

What do you thnk about the shear issue? The GFS clears the way, while the GFS-P maintains a sandblaster aimed down this thing's throat. Current CIMSS analysis suggusts a blockaded Caribbean, with shear ranging between 20 and 50 knots, albeit the strongest shear is west of Hispanola's axis.

A slight difference in 200 mb winds, but not what I'd call a "sand blaster". With one, you see a strong hurricane and it's anti-cyclone modifying the upper level flow, and with the other model you see a weak TS running into 30 kts of shear.

[Hurricane Andrew]

the one thing that gives me pause is now much the Japanese model develops this. It is usually one of the most conservative models.

I'd give it a 30 percent chance of development within the next 7 days

What do you thnk about the shear issue? The GFS clears the way, while the GFS-P maintains a sandblaster aimed down this thing's throat. Current CIMSS analysis suggusts a blockaded Caribbean, with shear ranging between 20 and 50 knots, albeit the strongest shear is west of Hispanola's axis.

'

50 kts seems unreasonable. That is strong el niño levels, or if we have a strong EPAC cyclone. We should not have either next week

Hmm...I can't get the sounding feature from TT to work on my iPad...but I wonder how much the GFS-P is showing for next week.

[Hurricane Andrew]

A slight difference in 200 mb winds, but not what I'd call a "sand blaster". With one, you see a strong hurricane and it's anti-cyclone modifying the upper level flow, and with the other model you see a weak TS running into 30 kts of shear.

Fair enough.

[NDG]

12z GFS Parallel is weaker than the OP Euro.

I don't see that.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

18z GFS ensembles still pretty vigorous with the system.

[Kingarabian]

Throughout the Caribbean, the Euro has 30-50kts of shear as well. Maybe higher.