ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

Not suggesting anything here, just merely curious. How do the conditions compare now to when Katrina formed? I recall Katrina materializing out of nowhere in the Bahamas.

Katrina had a much better moisture rich environment than this current situation with TD 4's remnants.

Katrina interacted with a tropical wave and. the entity previously the remnants of TD 10 that season (2005) and found an anticyclone in the vicinity of the Bahamas. It rapidly developed and you know the rest of the story.

[BeRad954]

Just speculating but there seems to be a clear path of moist air along the entire carribean, leading right to Florida, would this be enough to feed the remanents and possibly avoid the drier air?

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Evening everyone,

s we all know by now it did in fact survive last night. The conditions do not seem to bad and as some here have said, and should improve. Will be keeping an eye on what's left of TD 4

[AtlanticWind]

Still waiting to see if we gain any model support tonight

[Bocadude85]

The vort is slightly more defined on the 0z GFS through 42 hours.

[AtlanticWind]

Still no development on the gfs thru 54 hours

[BeRad954]

Seems to be really developing on the rgb, or I'm just manifesting it, but very interested to see the first visible images in the AM.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/rgb-animated.gif

[AtlanticWind]

Seems to be really developing on the rgb, or I'm just manifesting it, but very interested to see the first visible images in the AM.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/rgb-animated.gif

See what you're looking at but I think the low level circulation if any is to the western edge of convection
Also the cloud tops are warming at the moment

[AtlanticWind]

CMC has a little more defined vorticity and weak low but still not much .

[Aric Dunn]

extrapolating a little.. convection associated with the developing circ earlier has waned for sure. will it re fire is key to any development. this is when the models really start weakening the vorticity. there is still a very sharp wave axis and from earlier likely a llc but without convection it will open up.

the big observation is the surface data from the islands. the winds have switched from southerly to east indicating that whatever was trying to get going earlier may have fallen apart..

its so hard to tell at night and on of that no decent microwave or direct data..

turn on the wind option.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/mflash-rgb.html

[BeRad954]

Aric thanks for the insight, I also see what you mean with the wind turning back east.

[Kingarabian]

Euro coming in more organized as it gets into the gulf.

[Kingarabian]

Euro has a well organized vort in EGOM with TS force winds.

[northjaxpro]

The current.EURO and. the UKMET run from late yesterday each had the remnants getting into the Eastern GOM later this week. The upper ridge looks to build in this upcoming week, so a very good bet of whatever that becomes of this entity will likely traverse into the GOM.

[Hammy]

The current.EURO and. the UKMET run from late yesterday each had the remnants getting into the Eastern GOM later this week. The upper ridge looks to build in this upcoming week, so a very good bet of whatever that becomes of this entity will likely traverse into the GOM.

Canadian and GFS too, so there's some consensus here that this will just keep headed west from here.

[GCANE]

Obioulsy three voritical hot towers independently firing just before DMAX and now merging.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider

[AtlanticWind]

Trying to get its actually together this morning

[Aric Dunn]

wow first few images this morning are very telling.. we most likely have a developing TC or one already. curved CU clouds in all quads. great inflow. was little surprised since last night the convection waned so much.

and still not even a mention by the NHC.. they of course will play it off like there has been nothing all along.. lol

I have seen worse looking moderate TS than this..

[Aric Dunn]

pretty crazy there is no mention by the NHC...

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html about 15 images or so on rapid scan.

[xironman]

41043 has a WSW at 8 kts. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41043