ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#901 Postby **GCANE** » Mon Jul 10, 2017 7:05 am

Latest surface obs

Aric Dunn · #902 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Jul 10, 2017 7:06 am

GCANE wrote:Latest surface obs

nice was just about to post a similar one.. perfect example of why you cant depend on models are cyclogenesis .. fail

#903 Postby **AtlanticWind** » Mon Jul 10, 2017 7:10 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
GCANE wrote:Latest surface obs

nice was just about to post a similar one.. perfect example of why you cant depend on models are cyclogenesis .. fail

Wow you seem pretty sure this is developing, I am encouraged but not quite there yet.

Aric Dunn · #904 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Jul 10, 2017 7:13 am

AtlanticWind wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
GCANE wrote:Latest surface obs

nice was just about to post a similar one.. perfect example of why you cant depend on models for cyclogenesis .. fail

Wow you seem pretty sure this is developing, I am encouraged but not quite there yet.

its somewhere around 60 to 75 percent. lol wait for recon to be 100 percent but there is enough data.

at the very least it should have a mention in the TWO of at least 50 percent now.

though now watch it completely fall apart in the next couple hours.. lol

#905 Postby **xironman** » Mon Jul 10, 2017 7:13 am

In a decent spot

#906 Postby **AtlanticWind** » Mon Jul 10, 2017 7:15 am

Looks to me like if there is a circulation it is out in front of the convection at the moment

#907 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Jul 10, 2017 7:15 am

EPS and Euro Parallel have backed off now, a shame really.

#908 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Jul 10, 2017 7:16 am

Aric Dunn wrote:wow first few images this morning are very telling.. we most likely have a developing TC or one already. curved CU clouds in all quads. great inflow. was little surprised since last night the convection waned so much.

and still not even a mention by the NHC.. they of course will play it off like there has been nothing all along.. lol

I have seen worse looking moderate TS than this..

They're probably hoping it washes away lol.

#909 Postby **GCANE** » Mon Jul 10, 2017 7:17 am

AtlanticWind wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
GCANE wrote:Latest surface obs

nice was just about to post a similar one.. perfect example of why you cant depend on models are cyclogenesis .. fail

Wow you seem pretty sure this is developing, I am encouraged but not quite there yet.

Still has mid-layer dry air to deal with.
I like MIMIC-TPW showing a reconnect with low-level moisture from the Carib.
If convection holds today, tonight might be more interesting.
Shear still looks good judging from the latest tower that fired off which top layered the existing cirrus.

#910 Postby **RL3AO** » Mon Jul 10, 2017 7:18 am

LLC looks better than yesterday which looked better than the day before.

TheStormExpert · #911 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Mon Jul 10, 2017 7:24 am

If this redevelops it would be TD#4 again considering it doesn't go straight to Don right?

#912 Postby **AtlanticWind** » Mon Jul 10, 2017 7:26 am

RL3AO wrote:LLC looks better than yesterday which looked better than the day before.

http://i.imgur.com/pA82FCu.gif

Nice loop,you can see the inflow from the west .very interesting

#913 Postby **GCANE** » Mon Jul 10, 2017 7:28 am

RL3AO wrote:LLC looks better than yesterday which looked better than the day before.

Yup, sucking in a lot more LL stuff on its SW quad very close to the last convective burst.

Aric Dunn · #914 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Jul 10, 2017 7:33 am

All in all the models and, in turn, the nhc have done a rather poor job with the day to day trends.

#915 Postby **AtlanticWind** » Mon Jul 10, 2017 7:33 am

If this were to develop it would be big bald face miss for all the models.

#916 Postby **GCANE** » Mon Jul 10, 2017 7:43 am

A lot more convergence on the wave axis now based on a sudden flare of a line of convection.

Aric Dunn · #917 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Jul 10, 2017 7:45 am

if you look closely at the beginning of the loop, western edge of the convection you can see a very clear well defined circ disappear under the convection.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

or here
https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/ ... and02.html

rock it back and forth..very easy to see

#918 Postby **Blown Away** » Mon Jul 10, 2017 7:48 am

#919 Postby **AtlanticWind** » Mon Jul 10, 2017 7:50 am

Have to say would be very surprised if this does not get a mention at 2pm TWO

Aric Dunn · #920 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Jul 10, 2017 7:51 am

AtlanticWind wrote:Have to say would be very surprised if this does not get a mention at 2pm TWO

lol... technically it should be around 75 percent with a recon on it way...

ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

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