Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

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Re: Tropical Wave SW of CV Islands

#701 Postby stormhunter7 » Mon Jul 10, 2017 11:22 am

988mb due south of PR. WNW heading
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of CV Islands

#702 Postby HurricaneEric » Mon Jul 10, 2017 11:24 am

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:Over the years I have seen big differences between the Euro and the GFS run to run, but never anything like this, just crazy.


To any of the pro mets here: is there actually any precedence to this level of polarization between two major global models? If not, the implications are striking... one of the two major global models is going to be completely and utterly wrong on this system, with the odds against the GFS.
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of CV Islands

#703 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jul 10, 2017 11:25 am

Eastern CONUS / W Atlantic trough doesn't looks as deep this GFS run compared to 06Z so might mean more west on this run.
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of CV Islands

#704 Postby RL3AO » Mon Jul 10, 2017 11:26 am

HurricaneEric wrote:
Miami Storm Tracker wrote:Over the years I have seen big differences between the Euro and the GFS run to run, but never anything like this, just crazy.


To any of the pro mets here: is there actually any precedence to this level of polarization between two major global models? If not, the implications are striking... one of the two major global models is going to be completely and utterly wrong on this system, with the odds against the GFS.


Don't forget option 3 - A weak TS develops and dies in the Caribbean. Think of it as the middle ground.
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of CV Islands

#705 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Mon Jul 10, 2017 11:28 am

HurricaneEric,

You are so correct something has to give. I know the GFS has had it's share of issues, but so many back to back runs, it's not moving further out in time as in past runs with different storms before this.
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of CV Islands

#706 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jul 10, 2017 11:28 am

Trough over Eastern CONUS and Western Atlantic:

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Re: Tropical Wave SW of CV Islands

#707 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Jul 10, 2017 11:29 am

Is the GFS-Parallel replacing the GFS on July 19th right??


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Re: Tropical Wave SW of CV Islands

#708 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Jul 10, 2017 11:31 am

Maybe another NC landfall?
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of CV Islands

#709 Postby HurricaneEric » Mon Jul 10, 2017 11:32 am

RL3AO wrote:Don't forget option 3 - A weak TS develops and dies in the Caribbean. Think of it as the middle ground.


You're right, I didn't think about that. Still though, would be considered a flop for both in that case, with one flopping on genesis and the other on intensity. Not a good look.
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of CV Islands

#710 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Jul 10, 2017 11:33 am

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Re: Tropical Wave SW of CV Islands

#711 Postby PTrackerLA » Mon Jul 10, 2017 11:34 am

12z GFS 186hrs, somehow survives crossing Hispaniola

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Re: Tropical Wave SW of CV Islands

#712 Postby NDG » Mon Jul 10, 2017 11:36 am

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:It's the CMC,

LOL.


It develops a TS in the middle of the Atlantic over the SAL, tracks it over Bermuda. This model is crazier than the GFS.
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of CV Islands

#713 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Jul 10, 2017 11:39 am

Probably over the FL keys and into the Gulf this run
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of CV Islands

#714 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Jul 10, 2017 11:40 am

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Re: Tropical Wave SW of CV Islands

#715 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Jul 10, 2017 11:46 am

984mb cane moving parallel to FL coast at hr 228
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of CV Islands

#716 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Jul 10, 2017 11:48 am

Strengthening pretty quick at 240hrs. now at 973mbs moving VERY slowly NNW
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of CV Islands

#717 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Mon Jul 10, 2017 11:49 am

Is there any sign of a LLC developing with this wave? The GFS has consistantly said that will happen today, so for me, a big red flag is raised of that development is delayed.
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of CV Islands

#718 Postby stormhunter7 » Mon Jul 10, 2017 11:49 am

Image
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of CV Islands

#719 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Jul 10, 2017 11:49 am

So happy the current GFS is getting replaced very soon otherwise it would be a LOOONG SEASON!
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of CV Islands

#720 Postby marionstorm » Mon Jul 10, 2017 11:53 am

Good thing it's turning away from Florida.
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