Hurricane Andrew wrote:Is there any sign of a LLC developing with this wave? The GFS has consistantly said that will happen today, so for me, a big red flag is raised of that development is delayed.
850mb vorticity is on the increase, FWIW.
Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean
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Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of CV Islands
850mb vorticity is on the increase, FWIW.
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stormhunter7
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of CV Islands
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Miami Storm Tracker
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of CV Islands
You got the right,
Had a similar run last evening sort of a Matthew type run. One into NC & one in SC.
Had a similar run last evening sort of a Matthew type run. One into NC & one in SC.
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of CV Islands
Love the GFS which I use for entertainment purposes for anything over 172hrs... If the Euro doesn't pick it up today then I have to throw these phantom GFS runs out the window.JMO
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weathaguyry
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of CV Islands
marionstorm wrote:Good thing it's turning away from Florida.
It's nearly stationary at 252hrs. off the coast of FL, not quite turning away yet
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stormhunter7
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of CV Islands
Bad week to be in Nassau! lol System drifts back south deepening to 969mb
Last edited by stormhunter7 on Mon Jul 10, 2017 11:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
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tarheelprogrammer
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of CV Islands
The phantom storm is OTS after hitting Haiti and Bahamas. Orrrrrrr not lol. Good thing it is a phantom. No other model shows anything at all.
Last edited by tarheelprogrammer on Mon Jul 10, 2017 12:01 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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PTrackerLA
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of CV Islands
tarheelprogrammer wrote:The phantom storm is OTS after hitting Haiti and Bahamas.
Actually starts moving south through 288hrs. Anyway it's likely all garbage
.
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Miami Storm Tracker
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of CV Islands
Since I can't see the image I was going to ask how far off the coast of FLA. But since you mentioned B H Islands I will assume a good bit of the coast of FLA.
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weathaguyry
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of CV Islands
It just sits there for days and days, definitely won't be any upwelling issues 
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stormhunter7
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of CV Islands
Miami Storm Tracker wrote:Since I can't see the image I was going to ask how far off the coast of FLA. But since you mentioned B H Islands I will assume a good bit of the coast of FLA.
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weathaguyry
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of CV Islands
Miami Storm Tracker wrote:Since I can't see the image I was going to ask how far off the coast of FLA. But since you mentioned B H Islands I will assume a good bit of the coast of FLA.
It's located at 27N 78W give or take
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stormhunter7
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of CV Islands
ROCK wrote:Love the GFS which I use for entertainment purposes for anything over 172hrs... If the Euro doesn't pick it up today then I have to throw these phantom GFS runs out the window.JMO
Think it will go west after stall? Or NE escape to ATL?
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Miami Storm Tracker
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of CV Islands
Thank you Storm for posting it, I can't see it sitting there for 4 days. This one has to be a bad run.
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AutoPenalti
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of CV Islands
Once again, minus the intensity, the track is a tiny bit concerning. It's been showing a Herbert box hit for the past couple of runs followed by a WNW/NW turn towards the Bahamas followed by a west turn with a deepening ridge towards SFL.
Now in between the SFL hit and the Bahamas run we are starting to see flip flopping with the Ridge and the trough.
We shall see what verifies, but this may be something to watch.
Now in between the SFL hit and the Bahamas run we are starting to see flip flopping with the Ridge and the trough.
We shall see what verifies, but this may be something to watch.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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AutoPenalti
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of CV Islands
stormhunter7 wrote:ROCK wrote:Love the GFS which I use for entertainment purposes for anything over 172hrs... If the Euro doesn't pick it up today then I have to throw these phantom GFS runs out the window.JMO
Think it will go west after stall? Or NE escape to ATL?
Usually if it stalls, it starts to move poleward.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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weathaguyry
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of CV Islands
Starting to move North, not OTS at hour 324, and since it's at hour 324 it MUST be true 
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weathaguyry
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of CV Islands
946mb cane approaching Outer Banks at 348 hours 
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cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of CV Islands
Funny tweet from MIchael Ventrice.
@MJVentrice
Anyone who posts the GFS operational model from 12Z at any point after forecast hour +240 can be labeled a..
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/884460210194182145
@MJVentrice
Anyone who posts the GFS operational model from 12Z at any point after forecast hour +240 can be labeled a..
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/884460210194182145
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stormlover2013
Re: Tropical Wave SW of CV Islands
Gfs over does troughs, I would bet tons of money that it isn't going on that track
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