Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

[Hurricane Andrew]

Funny tweet from MIchael Ventrice.

@MJVentrice
Anyone who posts the GFS operational model from 12Z at any point after forecast hour +240 can be labeled a..

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/884460210194182145

Yeah, just saw that and had to keep myself from bursting out in laughter, lol. He's totally right.

[gatorcane]

Gfs over does troughs, I would bet tons of money that it isn't going on that track

Just look at the other global models at hour 240. They don't show anywhere near that trough the GFS shows. And of course they don't show this wave becoming a storm or hurricane either.

Model consensus and even the GFS parallel is for a "nothing burger" out of this wave at least for now.

[chaser1]

Don't forget option 3 - A weak TS develops and dies in the Caribbean. Think of it as the middle ground.

You're right, I didn't think about that. Still though, would be considered a flop for both in that case, with one flopping on genesis and the other on intensity. Not a good look.

Option 3 is certainly a middle ground, but one that I would clearly view as a "win" for the GFS. Beware of small packages folks. We're talking about only 66 hours from a deepening small low approaching the islands. 90 hours to further deepening down to 1003mb. as this low approaches 60W. All the while, this system approaching from the ESE and a bit further south than most MDR systems. Oh, and dont forget the menacing conditions that typically disrupt low level convergence as tropical systems attempt to approach and develop over the extreme Southeast Caribbean. Yet, doesn't this Look and feel a little familiar? This "model storm" may never see the south side of 1008mb, but remember this: We've seen very small storms that the EURO hardly identified AFTER even forming Regardless whether S. Florida comes within 500 miles of getting waxed by this system or not, I'm beginning to believe that it is increasingly likely that a very vigorous wave, developing TD, or possibly even a T.S. may well threaten the Windwards in the coming days. "If so", than what does this say about the differing global models and their ability to snoop out meso-scale tropical development? More importantly, such development strikes me as an even more ominous sign of whats to come this year. Perhaps a few other small but quick to develop systems that in August or September might pose an even more menacing threat

In a sort of related question, I'm curious how those of you in your own respective regions have found the NAM (or other mesoscale tools) to perform this year with regards to smaller but intense conditions that ultimately developed? Were the same severe outbreaks this year just as well advertised in advance by the typically reliable EURO (or other global models)?

[ROCK]

Love the GFS which I use for entertainment purposes for anything over 172hrs... If the Euro doesn't pick it up today then I have to throw these phantom GFS runs out the window.JMO

Think it will go west after stall? Or NE escape to ATL?

got to have something before I bet anything on a GFS run that has no other friends and out past 172hr. As Louis has been saying we need to be looking at the current state of the TW. That SAL is right on its butt and it doesn't look too healthy..

[ROCK]

BTW didn't see the 12Z CMC posted but it has nada once again.

[abajan]

2 PM TWO seems a tad later than usual. I wonder why.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred
miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands are associated with
a tropical wave. Some gradual development is possible through the
week while this system moves westward at about 20 mph across the
tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[psyclone]

Meanwhile the real hurricane season is just a month away. while it isn't uncommon for the first third of August to be quiet the middle and latter thirds pop...so...there is that. I'd bet peak season is going to jam so enjoy the tranquility while it lasts..

[Siker]

Well, the parent run of the HWRF from TD4 develops this into a hurricane .

[TheStormExpert]

This is how I feel right now about the current GFS...

[TheStormExpert]

Well, the parent run of the HWRF from TD4 develops this into a hurricane .

And we all know how well that model is.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

Well, the parent run of the HWRF from TD4 develops this into a hurricane .

Apparently recon is scheduled for tomorrow to check on any possible reformation of td4.

[WeatherEmperor]

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[Siker]

Euro looks to already wash out the energy by 24 hours.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

Well, the parent run of the HWRF from TD4 develops this into a hurricane .

And we all know how well that model is.

i really think the hwrf is a drama queen lol

[TheProfessor]

The GFS 12Z seems to be stuck on hour 42. MOVE IT! The suspense is awful for me in Barbados.

I just visited Barbados in June, it's a very beautiful island. It was brought up on my trip that the island isn't hit by hurricanes or strong tropical storms very often.

[WeatherEmperor]

Euro has basically nothing through 48hrs. Major bust alert for one of these models.....




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[WeatherEmperor]

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[Dougiefresh]

The GFS 12Z seems to be stuck on hour 42. MOVE IT! The suspense is awful for me in Barbados.

I just visited Barbados in June, it's a very beautiful island. It was brought up on my trip that the island isn't hit by hurricanes or strong tropical storms very often.

Thanks for visiting our Island! No, the last hurricane to pass us was Tomas, other than that we seldom see much activity, majority of the systems pass to our North.

[ROCK]

EURO just broke the ankles of the GFS with its cross over. that will about do it for me.

X-TD4 looks like it has a pulse as it interacts with a ULL to the NE...