Good afternoon and evening everyone. Just updating the situation tonight in the tropics, Kate continues to churn as a tropical storm in the eastern Atlantic. It's only a threat to marine and shipping interests right now. Meanwhile a tropical disturbance is being investigated by the hurricane hunter aircraft over the southern Gulf Of Mexico. The gradient between the disturbance over the southern Gulf and Bay Of Campeche is the high pressure ridge to the north is resulting in coastal flooding in the south Texas coast. Park police in Padre Island even reported flooding on the beach in South Padre Island. So we got some problems due to coastal flooding. Also more heavy rains in Florida. Thankfully Naples and Fort Myers are seeing a break for now. However Miami and Dade County have recently experienced severe weather in the form of heavy rains and strong damaging winds.
Detailing it one by one starting with Tropical Storm Kate. At 5 PM EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Kate was located near 540 miles southwest of Lajes in the Azores Islands. The coordinates if you're plotting at home is latitude 32.6 degrees north, longitude 36.4 degrees west.
Tropical Storm Kate has turned from northerly to more west northwesterly. Present track and forward speed is west northwest at 10 mph and this motion is expected to continue with a more due west motion during the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds with Tropical Storm Kate are near 60 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is anticipated over the next day or so.
Tropical Storm force winds extend outward 145 miles from the center. Remember yesterday the tropical storm force winds extended out well over 200 miles from the center. So the wind field has strunk for the time being. Minimum central pressure is 996 mb or 29.41 inches.
Meanwhile in the Gulf Of Mexico, a broad low pressure area is situated along a stalled out frontal boundary. Any tropical development appears slow if any at this time. This broad low pressure center hasn't even been classified a tropical depression yet. But could we have a depression?? Possibly. Conditions aloft are somewhat favorable. However with a frontal boundary nearby, any tropical development at this point appears slow. One thing this disturbance will produce is more heavy rains in flood logged south Florida. Fort Myers has received 17.20 inches of rain just for the month of September. That's obviously an all time monthly record. More heavy rains are possible in Fort Myers and Naples later this evening.
Flood watches remain in effect for southern and central Florida as well.
Meanwhile another problem continues to take hold along the south Texas coast in the form of coastal flooding due to a presistent northeasterly fetch. A coastal flood warning remains in effect through Thursday from Baffin Bay, TX down to the mouth of the Rio Grande River including Padre and South Padre Island. Park Police in Padre Island have reported coastal flooding on the beach earlier today and that is expected to continue as long as the northeasterly winds continue to blow at 25-35 mph with higher gusts. Swells of 8-10 feet are occurring along the South Texas coast. Add to that the higher tides of nearly 2.1 feet above mean lower low water. Thus significant coastal flooding of area beaches and low lying coastal areas are likely through Thursday along the south Texas coast, especially during this evenings high tide. The next high tide occurs at around 10:25 PM central time this evening. Keep an eye on this!!!
A coastal flood warning from Baffin Bay to the mouth of the Rio Grande River in Texas means that coastal flooding is immient or is occurring or will occur within the next 12 hours. Small craft are urged to stay in port. Take the neccessary precuations to safeguard life and property along the coastal zones if you haven't done so. This coastal flood threat continues in south Texas coast through Thursday.
Another update on all of this later this evening. Stay tuned.
Jim
Kate, GOM disturbance, and marine coastal hazards
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