Texas Summer 2017

[bubba hotep]

Storms formed to our south on the morning outflow then storms fired just to our north this evening. However, some back building and another random cell and managed to get almost another inch! This has been an awesome July.

[Brent]

Storms formed to our south on the morning outflow then storms fired just to our north this evening. However, some back building and another random cell and managed to get almost another inch! This has been an awesome July.

Another beautiful evening lol actually not unbearable outside

Another ridiculous 0z GFS run with the African wave as a major hurricane moving from New Orleans to Houston in about 2 weeks lol

then moves inland between DFW and Austin with lots of rain for everyone on my birthday lol

[weatherdude1108]

Nothing of interest in the short-term in these parts, but EWX does have a couple sentences at the end of the long-term discussion that perked my interest, at least for now.

It may change back to hot and dry for the foreseeable future on the next discussion for all I know.lol

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
639 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
The inverted trough drifts to the west mid week. Its main impact will
be to bring in a little deeper moisture to near I-35 on Wednesday and
to parts of the Rio Grande Plains along and south of Highway 90 on
Thursday. Daytime showers and thunderstorms are expected along and
east of these areas on Wednesday and Thursday. The trough pulls away
late week as the ridge builds into South Central Texas. Some deeper
moisture remains near the Coastal Plains and Rio Grande Valley for
daytime showers and thunderstorms there on Friday. This weekend, the
ridge retreats to the Four Corners/Great Basin regions and a upper
level trough over the eastern states. This allows disturbances to
move south into South Central Texas along with a more energetic
seabreeze as well as deeper moisture to most of our area. This
combination brings increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms as
the weekend progresses.

[weatherdude1108]

Interesting what the GFS is doing on the last two runs. On the 00Z, it makes a landfalling hurricane east of Central Texas' longitude in the Houston/Galveston area. On the 06Z, it takes it south of Central Texas' latitude into Brownsville/South Padre. Previous runs took it toward the east coast.
Maybe the next run will split the difference and bring it here. Then the run after that will bring it into the Bay of Campeche and Central America.

Question is what position will the highs and upper level lows be in to influence the future track? I guess that is why the models are all over the place at this time frame.

[Ntxw]

GFS. If it were right 300 hours out about hurricanes it will not have been 9+ years since the last big strike on TX since Ike (hope it stays that way). Until the Euro bites, I have little faith the Atlantic gives us much rain relief.

On the flip side I think the weather we got is going to persist. Seasonably hot (typical July weather) and those who are lucky with spotty storms get brief relief. Summer is such a long season and never seems to want to end

[Cpv17]

Rain chances looking pretty decent over the next couple weeks! Hope we get some here because we haven't had any rain at all yet this month while it seems like a lot of people on here have.

[Brent]

The 100s this weekend have turned into maybe low 90s and pretty good rainfall at least on the gfs in DFW and Austin

[Ntxw]

Yeah we will have gone through mid July at least without 100s at DFW for the month. That's pretty astonishing. It also means a sub-20 days of 100F summer is looking more likely. But as I've mentioned many times, the dew point is a love-hate relationship!

[bubba hotep]

Yeah we will have gone through mid July at least without 100s at DFW for the month. That's pretty astonishing. It also means a sub-20 days of 100F summer is looking more likely. But as I've mentioned many times, the dew point is a love-hate relationship!

Way to jinx us!

[Brent]

Yeah we will have gone through mid July at least without 100s at DFW for the month. That's pretty astonishing. It also means a sub-20 days of 100F summer is looking more likely. But as I've mentioned many times, the dew point is a love-hate relationship!

In b4 the August/September torch...

[South Texas Storms]

We could see a nice wet period across the region next week. Models are trending wetter due to a weakness across the state with daily chances of mainly afternoon showers and storms.

[weatherdude1108]

We could see a nice wet period across the region next week. Models are trending wetter due to a weakness across the state with daily chances of mainly afternoon showers and storms.

Please LORD!! Can't come soon enough.

[Portastorm]

We could see a nice wet period across the region next week. Models are trending wetter due to a weakness across the state with daily chances of mainly afternoon showers and storms.

Please LORD!! Can't come soon enough.

I'll play Grumpy Cat here and say that while South Texas Storms is right in that the models are suggesting a "wetter" period ahead, I think summer is the best time to get with persistence on a forecast. So I'm going to say hot and dry with maybe some increasing humidity. And that'll be it.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

:lol: GFS. If it were right 300 hours out about hurricanes it will not have been 9+ years since the last big strike on TX since Ike (hope it stays that way). Until the Euro bites, I have little faith the Atlantic gives us much rain relief.

On the flip side I think the weather we got is going to persist. Seasonably hot (typical July weather) and those who are lucky with spotty storms get brief relief. Summer is such a long season and never seems to want to end

I think the GFS loves to play games with Texas.

Summer- Hurricanes 300 hours out head for the Houston Ship Channel

Winter- Teens and snow headed for Brownsville and blizzard like conditions in Austin.

Silly GFS!

[weatherdude1108]

We could see a nice wet period across the region next week. Models are trending wetter due to a weakness across the state with daily chances of mainly afternoon showers and storms.

Please LORD!! Can't come soon enough.

I'll play Grumpy Cat here and say that while South Texas Storms is right in that the models are suggesting a "wetter" period ahead, I think summer is the best time to get with persistence on a forecast. So I'm going to say hot and dry with maybe some increasing humidity. And that'll be it.

Would not surprise me at all. Not a good time of year for a pattern change in these parts that defaults to persistence and never-ending misery, barring a tropical system's influence, or the occasional stationary boundary/outflows from somewhere else. As far as the tropical systems, they tend to move east, putting us in the northeast compressional heating quadrant, scouring out any available humidity/QPF, making us even hotter and dryer. (aka Tropical Storm
Lee in 2011). But don't want to relive that again! But, in whatever case, always holding out hope for misery relief!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Lee_(2011)

[aggiecutter]

yes, I control the weather:

[bubba hotep]

We could see a nice wet period across the region next week. Models are trending wetter due to a weakness across the state with daily chances of mainly afternoon showers and storms.

The Euro EPS has tended wetter across all of Texas here recently. I like it, I like it a lot.

[Cpv17]

The CPC says there will be decent chances for rain across Texas over the next couple weeks, but according to the GFS and GFS-Para it looks fairly dry so I'm not sure what to believe right now.

[Ntxw]

The CPC says there will be decent chances for rain across Texas over the next couple weeks, but according to the GFS and GFS-Para it looks fairly dry so I'm not sure what to believe right now.

Skill scores for models have been pretty bad lately even for the Euro. We'll likely be underneath or behind the upper level ridge which will favor afternoon thunderstorms. should ridging occur further east of us then we'll get flow from the gulf and sea-breeze may kick in.

[1900hurricane]

Please LORD!! Can't come soon enough.

I'll play Grumpy Cat here and say that while South Texas Storms is right in that the models are suggesting a "wetter" period ahead, I think summer is the best time to get with persistence on a forecast. So I'm going to say hot and dry with maybe some increasing humidity. And that'll be it.

Would not surprise me at all. Not a good time of year for a pattern change in these parts that defaults to persistence and never-ending misery, barring a tropical system's influence, or the occasional stationary boundary/outflows from somewhere else. As far as the tropical systems, they tend to move east, putting us in the northeast compressional heating quadrant, scouring out any available humidity/QPF, making us even hotter and dryer. (aka Tropical Storm
Lee in 2011). But don't want to relive that again! But, in whatever case, always holding out hope for misery relief!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Lee_(2011)

Don and Lee '11 were unequivocally the saddest two excuses for tropical cyclones in the history of the world.