2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

[Hammy]

I'm still not confident enough to make a forecast on the season yet as there are too many mixed signals. I was hoping for July to give me some idea but that doesn't seem likely at this point. I will say the MDR activity to this point is interesting, even with one being only a depression. In the last four decades only 1979, 2003, and 2005 had two MRD systems (depressions included) before the 20th, and in fact most had none.

So what do you think Hammy? Quiet season for the ATL and a hyper active one in the EPAC with a neutral el-niño?

Basically too unsure to say either way at this point. Usually I'm leaning one direction or another but while the indicators for an active season are there, that August forecast from the CFS would be a negative for the season and is a huge question mark for me.

[MetroMike]

I'm still not confident enough to make a forecast on the season yet as there are too many mixed signals. I was hoping for July to give me some idea but that doesn't seem likely at this point. I will say the MDR activity to this point is interesting, even with one being only a depression. In the last four decades only 1979, 2003, and 2005 had two MRD systems (depressions included) before the 20th, and in fact most had none.

So what do you think Hammy? Quiet season for the ATL and a hyper active one in the EPAC with a neutral el-niño?

Basically too unsure to say either way at this point. Usually I'm leaning one direction or another but while the indicators for an active season are there, that August forecast from the CFS would be a negative for the season and is a huge question mark for me.

Well Hammy I think it is going to be too late to make any predictions from here on out.

[TheStormExpert]

Here's another negative factor, wind shear doesn't look like it'll be getting any better for TC development anytime soon according to the extended range GFS-P.

[MetroMike]

Here's another negative factor, wind shear doesn't look like it'll be getting any better for TC development anytime soon according to the extended range GFS-P.

Then again it is the GFS. Take it with a grain of salt as they say.

[AutoPenalti]

Here's another negative factor, wind shear doesn't look like it'll be getting any better for TC development anytime soon according to the extended range GFS-P.

Then again it is the GFS. Take it with a grain of salt as they say.

But it's the upgraded GFS-parallel.

[TheStormExpert]

I'm still not confident enough to make a forecast on the season yet as there are too many mixed signals. I was hoping for July to give me some idea but that doesn't seem likely at this point. I will say the MDR activity to this point is interesting, even with one being only a depression. In the last four decades only 1979, 2003, and 2005 had two MRD systems (depressions included) before the 20th, and in fact most had none.

So what do you think Hammy? Quiet season for the ATL and a hyper active one in the EPAC with a neutral el-niño?

Basically too unsure to say either way at this point. Usually I'm leaning one direction or another but while the indicators for an active season are there, that August forecast from the CFS would be a negative for the season and is a huge question mark for me.

I believe the CFS has been busting when it was showing how favorable things would be in this month so hopefully the opposite happens here otherwise the seasonal forecasts will be in jeopardy.

[TheStormExpert]

Here's another negative factor, wind shear doesn't look like it'll be getting any better for TC development anytime soon according to the extended range GFS-P.

Then again it is the GFS. Take it with a grain of salt as they say.

But it's the upgraded GFS-parallel.

The only thing that makes it unclear is it is 15-16 days out.

[Kingarabian]

Shear charts past 72hrs are useless in my opinion. Shear is hard to predict.

[tarheelprogrammer]

What is causing all this shear?

[Kingarabian]

What is causing all this shear?

Not sure if it's Nino induced shear. That low level jet is usually robust throughout July though.

[TheStormExpert]

I'll guess we'll have to wait until next month or when the East Pacific dies down.

[Ntxw]

What is causing all this shear?

Not sure if it's Nino induced shear. That low level jet is usually robust throughout July though.

Easterly shear is pretty typical with the apex and flexing of the Azores/Bermuda high in July. The Caribbean shear now that you could probably blame on the eastern Pacific/Central America convection for. However it's not running above normal with 60-70kts+ like in 2015

[WeatherEmperor]

Shear levels in the GOM and Caribbean are near or below normal. Just goes to show you how unfavorable the month of July normally is.


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[gatorcane]

Yes July is usually a slow month with lots of shear and dry air, no surprise. EPAC usually cranks things out in July like what is going on now and maybe for the next few weeks then by August tends to slow down some and it will be the Atlantic's turn. Give it a month or so...

[weathaguyry]

Yes, in July you stop getting stalled fronts and lows that spin off the east coast, but you don't have favorable enough wind shear in the deep tropics, so you only get storms from the occasional late front off the east coast, and waves that happen to find an area of favorable conditions (TD 4)

[NDG]

Then again it is the GFS. Take it with a grain of salt as they say.

But it's the upgraded GFS-parallel.

The only thing that makes it unclear is it is 15-16 days out.

Something is not right with that map, the same GFS-P forecast shows very unfavorable shear over the EPAC for the same time period.
Whether is good or bad UL conditions I don't believe a model past a 3-5 day range, unless the trend is towards better or worst atmospheric conditions.

[Bocadude85]

Wow season cancel posts already? It's July 13th. Go back through hurricane history and look at the seasons that featured a named storm in the MDR in June east of 60W. All of the seasons that featured a MDR named storm east of 60W in June were active seasons. I suppose this year could be different but odds are it won't be.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Wow season cancel posts already? It's July 13th. Go back through hurricane history and look at the seasons that featured a named storm in the MDR in June east of 60W. All of the seasons that featured a MDR named storm east of 60W in June were active seasons. I suppose this year could be different but odds are it won't be.

Somebody in here predicted that we would see these after the second SAL outbreak and it turns out they were right. But these posts showing up 44 days into the season is comical.

[Hammy]

Wow season cancel posts already? It's July 13th. Go back through hurricane history and look at the seasons that featured a named storm in the MDR in June east of 60W. All of the seasons that featured a MDR named storm east of 60W in June were active seasons. I suppose this year could be different but odds are it won't be.

Somebody in here predicted that we would see these after the second SAL outbreak and it turns out they were right. But these posts showing up 44 days into the season is comical.

I lurked here during most of the 2010 season and even that far back I remember people saying the season was over after the second depression (early July) failed to become a storm. Odd thing is I've gone through the archives and, while July overall has produced more storms than June due to June rarely generating more than one, it seems more common that any given year will have something in June but not July, or at least nothing prior to the last few days of the month, than the other way around.

[Siker]

 https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/885458145081909249




CFS shows similar timing with upward motion returning to the Atlantic (and focusing there) in the last few days of July.