2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[TheStormExpert]

GFS has been trolling us this month, hope the upgrade will put some clout into the long range and give us something meaningful to study and converse over.

It's been doing that for years! So far this season I've counted at least 3 times total where it was showing us these intense phantom hurricanes with the recent one before the other day being TD#4.

[Weather150]

18z GFS ensembles had a much stronger signal with it, but I am just going to keep laughing until Euro and other models get on board.

[gatorcane]

I know the GFS-P got it right with this last wave that failed to develop, but I think this model has it problems too. Take Cindy for example. Kept wanting to blow it up in the Eastern GOM. Never happened and the GFS Op did better with that system which ended up far west from where the GFS-P had it. It is possible that once we do get a legit system, we will see the GFS-P overdo it while the new Euro shows something weaker. We will see but I am not the biggest fan of the GFS-P (yet).

[Bocadude85]

GFS has been trolling us this month, hope the upgrade will put some clout into the long range and give us something meaningful to study and converse over.

It's been doing that for years! So far this season I've counted at least 3 times total where it was showing us these intense phantom hurricanes with the recent one before the other day being TD#4.

In all fairness to the GFS-Op the Euro showed a phantom major hurricane also. The GFS just didn't want to give up on the hurricane idea as quickly as the Euro did.

[Hammy]

Not much of anything as far as potential storms, but the Euro continues to show fairly strong waves coming off Africa accompanied by strong low-level westerlies.

[AutoPenalti]

Not much of anything as far as potential storms, but the Euro continues to show fairly strong waves coming off Africa accompanied by strong low-level westerlies.

Remind me how low-level westerlies affect tropical genesis?

[Hammy]

Not much of anything as far as potential storms, but the Euro continues to show fairly strong waves coming off Africa accompanied by strong low-level westerlies.

Remind me how low-level westerlies affect tropical genesis?

Essentially a reversal of the trade winds. Low level westerlies can help tropical waves close off or emerge as already closed lows, rather than an open wave if the trade winds/easterlies are stronger. Could be a sign of a favorable low-level flow once the SAL outbreaks lessen.

[Alyono]

GFS and Canadian now trying to develop an MDR TS

[PTrackerLA]

GFS and Canadian now trying to develop an MDR TS

And the GFS-Para says nope!

[gatorcane]

GFS and Canadian now trying to develop an MDR TS

[Alyono]

flattens half of the East Coast this run

[boca]

Did the GFS get upgraded yet?

[gatorcane]

flattens half of the East Coast this run

Looks like the GFS has this plowing through dual upper-level lows east of the Bahamas on the way up the East Coast.

[Weather150]

00z UKMET.

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like the 00z UKMET had it but what about the 12z run?

[cycloneye]

Did the GFS get upgraded yet?

On the 19th.

[Aric Dunn]

cycloneye I sent you a message....

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/885566480556937216

[RL3AO]

With the current GFS going away, next year's version of this thread will be on page 6 by July 13th.

[Weather150]

Was laughing at the 12z GFS run and was right to do so, 12z Euro continues to show high pressures and nothing forming for the next 7-10 days. MJO won't be here until early August, and I think Don will form sometime during the first 10 days of August.