Texas Summer 2017

[weatherdude1108]

Earth supposedly, from what ive read, is going through a major cooling phase but the US seems to be getting warmer and warmer. Population density and urban growth? It would be interesting to see the research and local numbers in other parts of the world. Also, these readings I'm sure are being taken in city settings. On a much smaller scale; I can take a temperature reading in Wichita Falls and it will read anywhere from 2-5 degrees warmer than out where I live, during the summer and winter.

I have seen stories where we are heading into a maunder minimum or Little Ice Age, and that the earth stopped warming in 1997. There was a supposed cool down in the 70s (with Ice Age alarmism propaganda), then a warming period from the 80s through the 90s (with global warming alarmism propaganda), then it plateaued in '97.

Doing a Google search of climate change, cooling, or warming, I can't find a site that is not biased on one side or the other. All I want to see are sites that are strictly science and fact-based, with conclusions drawn from the facts and no political affiliations or agendas that bias the study.

Every site you come across is either something like from the global warming alarmist crowd (all of the quoted stuff is paraphrased)- Global warming deniers are paid by oil companies to slant the truth, saying we are headed for another ice age, without looking at the facts of CO2 and how it warms the planet like a greenhouse, or from the global warming denier crowd - Global warming is a hoax created by liberal alarmists with an agenda, and all they want to do is destroy the economies without looking at the science of cosmic rays and natural sunspot cycles, and CO2 is the RESULT of warming, not the CAUSE, etc., and that the earth has had many warming and cooling periods in the past, with periods that were warmer before man was on the planet, and one volcanic eruption spews more CO2 in the atmosphere than the entire Industrial Age of man has to date, etc.

That is the frustrating part for me, trying to decipher what is real science vs. junk science!

Then I see the facts, at least for Texas/US, and feel for myself how, based on my own observations living in Texas for over 40 years, that the nighttime temperatures have overall gotten warmer (as Ntxw alluded to), and there seems to be fewer cooler times (whatever the cause), and that man seems to be pumping out more CO2 in the atmosphere at an artificially accelerated rate than what would otherwise be natural, overwhelming the natural balancing act of the earth's atmospheric gases.

It would be nice to have someone chime in with a thoughtful, unbiased discussion about climate change and predictions based on the sound science, probably on another forum. I like those discussions.

[Ntxw]

I have seen stories where we are heading into a maunder minimum or Little Ice Age, and that the earth stopped warming in 1997. There was a supposed cool down in the 70s (with Ice Age alarmism propaganda), then a warming period from the 80s through the 90s (with global warming alarmism propaganda), then it plateaued in '97.

There is some natural connection. It's been clear that after Super El Nino events very warm years can follow. Along with that there is a step up process that the decade after the Super Nino it remains warmer base average than the step up before the prior Super event. 1982-1983 super rose the base, then again in 1997. It leveled off since the 97 event and then jumped again after the super event of 2015-2016 thus the nearly unbroken string of above normal since at the Texas sites. These super El Nino events are more than just a change in the weather patterns from a typical El Nino. They alter ocean currents and atmospheric patterns years after they are gone.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Earth supposedly, from what ive read, is going through a major cooling phase but the US seems to be getting warmer and warmer. Population density and urban growth? It would be interesting to see the research and local numbers in other parts of the world. Also, these readings I'm sure are being taken in city settings. On a much smaller scale; I can take a temperature reading in Wichita Falls and it will read anywhere from 2-5 degrees warmer than out where I live, during the summer and winter.

I have seen stories where we are heading into a maunder minimum or Little Ice Age, and that the earth stopped warming in 1997. There was a supposed cool down in the 70s (with Ice Age alarmism propaganda), then a warming period from the 80s through the 90s (with global warming alarmism propaganda), then it plateaued in '97.

Doing a Google search of climate change, cooling, or warming, I can't find a site that is not biased on one side or the other. All I want to see are sites that are strictly science and fact-based, with conclusions drawn from the facts and no political affiliations or agendas that bias the study.

Every site you come across is either something like from the global warming alarmist crowd (all of the quoted stuff is paraphrased)- Global warming deniers are paid by oil companies to slant the truth, saying we are headed for another ice age, without looking at the facts of CO2 and how it warms the planet like a greenhouse, or from the global warming denier crowd - Global warming is a hoax created by liberal alarmists with an agenda, and all they want to do is destroy the economies without looking at the science of cosmic rays and natural sunspot cycles, and CO2 is the RESULT of warming, not the CAUSE, etc., and that the earth has had many warming and cooling periods in the past, with periods that were warmer before man was on the planet, and one volcanic eruption spews more CO2 in the atmosphere than the entire Industrial Age of man has to date, etc.

That is the frustrating part for me, trying to decipher what is real science vs. junk science!

Then I see the facts, at least for Texas/US, and feel for myself how, based on my own observations living in Texas for over 40 years, that the nighttime temperatures have overall gotten warmer (as Ntxw alluded to), and there seems to be fewer cooler times (whatever the cause), and that man seems to be pumping out more CO2 in the atmosphere at an artificially accelerated rate than what would otherwise be natural, overwhelming the natural balancing act of the earth's atmospheric gases.

It would be nice to have someone chime in with a thoughtful, unbiased discussion about climate change and predictions based on the sound science, probably on another forum. I like those discussions.

If the sound science actually exists, or is locked away before it can even be released. Similar to you, what ive read all seems to have political backing from one side of the other. Climate change seems to be a big money industry these days, with one group being paid to sway the argument towards what benefits them the best and the other side the same. I remember when I was a kid, it seemed to be cooler for the most part. Sure, summer has always been hot but I do remember nice cool falls and colder winters. I don't know if its because I pay attention to the weather more now that I'm older and despise warm/hot weather or if it actually was nicer (cooler) weather. Either way, that Super Nino kind of screwed us.

[weatherdude1108]

Earth supposedly, from what ive read, is going through a major cooling phase but the US seems to be getting warmer and warmer. Population density and urban growth? It would be interesting to see the research and local numbers in other parts of the world. Also, these readings I'm sure are being taken in city settings. On a much smaller scale; I can take a temperature reading in Wichita Falls and it will read anywhere from 2-5 degrees warmer than out where I live, during the summer and winter.

I have seen stories where we are heading into a maunder minimum or Little Ice Age, and that the earth stopped warming in 1997. There was a supposed cool down in the 70s (with Ice Age alarmism propaganda), then a warming period from the 80s through the 90s (with global warming alarmism propaganda), then it plateaued in '97.

Doing a Google search of climate change, cooling, or warming, I can't find a site that is not biased on one side or the other. All I want to see are sites that are strictly science and fact-based, with conclusions drawn from the facts and no political affiliations or agendas that bias the study.

Every site you come across is either something like from the global warming alarmist crowd (all of the quoted stuff is paraphrased)- Global warming deniers are paid by oil companies to slant the truth, saying we are headed for another ice age, without looking at the facts of CO2 and how it warms the planet like a greenhouse, or from the global warming denier crowd - Global warming is a hoax created by liberal alarmists with an agenda, and all they want to do is destroy the economies without looking at the science of cosmic rays and natural sunspot cycles, and CO2 is the RESULT of warming, not the CAUSE, etc., and that the earth has had many warming and cooling periods in the past, with periods that were warmer before man was on the planet, and one volcanic eruption spews more CO2 in the atmosphere than the entire Industrial Age of man has to date, etc.

That is the frustrating part for me, trying to decipher what is real science vs. junk science!

Then I see the facts, at least for Texas/US, and feel for myself how, based on my own observations living in Texas for over 40 years, that the nighttime temperatures have overall gotten warmer (as Ntxw alluded to), and there seems to be fewer cooler times (whatever the cause), and that man seems to be pumping out more CO2 in the atmosphere at an artificially accelerated rate than what would otherwise be natural, overwhelming the natural balancing act of the earth's atmospheric gases.

It would be nice to have someone chime in with a thoughtful, unbiased discussion about climate change and predictions based on the sound science, probably on another forum. I like those discussions.

If the sound science actually exists, or is locked away before it can even be released. Similar to you, what ive read all seems to have political backing from one side of the other. Climate change seems to be a big money industry these days, with one group being paid to sway the argument towards what benefits them the best and the other side the same. I remember when I was a kid, it seemed to be cooler for the most part. Sure, summer has always been hot but I do remember nice cool falls and colder winters. I don't know if its because I pay attention to the weather more now that I'm older and despise warm/hot weather or if it actually was nicer (cooler) weather. Either way, that Super Nino kind of screwed us.

Yeah, I feel like I wore my jacket more when I was little, except in Summer, which was always hot. But even in Summer, I feel like there were more showers and thundershowers interspersed, even during the dry/drought periods. I didn't pay attention to all the details like now, so it may not have been all that different. Like you alluded to, I pay more attention to it now, and am more hypersensitive to the temperature/dry change. I totally agree, that Super Nino totally screwed us over. Anything goes I guess.

[Brent]

I have blamed the Super El Nino for a lot of this... but at what point does that excuse run out?

[weatherdude1108]

Rather unremarkable forecast from the EWX. Persistence at its best/worst. At least there is some rain out there.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 121948
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
248 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
Water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper level low over the Big
Bend region which is providing enough lift to produce isolated
showers and thunderstorms. Low level flow is from the south to
southeast bringing gulf moisture to the region. Low end chance POPs
will continue this evening across our western half. The upper low
will move slowly to the west during the rest of this period. We will
continue to see low chances for showers and thunderstorms mainly
across the south and west. The isolated nature of the convection will
mean most places will be dry. PW values will be 1.5-2.0 inches so
showers and storms could produce brief heavy rain.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Another weakness in the upper ridge will develop for the weekend and
beginning of next week. This will mean chances for isolated showers
and thunderstorms Saturday through Wednesday. We do not expect
widespread rain during the period. High PW will again mean brief
heavy rain will be possible. While we have widespread 20-30 POPs,
this is more of a case of coverage and most places will likely be
dry. Temperatures will continue to run a few degrees above normal.

[gboudx]

I have blamed the Super El Nino for a lot of this... but at what point does that excuse run out?

Recently I read an article that stated the global temps are still recovering from the Super Nino. Maybe in the Fall/Winter the excuse can run out.

[Ntxw]

I have blamed the Super El Nino for a lot of this... but at what point does that excuse run out?

We'll be in a semi-quasi Nino like state until the next Major Nina. The Nino created the wetter, but warmer, PDO and global state since 2014. It's a double edged sword. Drain the Arctic and Canada of cold enough and even Nino climo can't save us! It's kind of ironic that it will take major drought here to signal a significant enough Nina, or series of Ninas to change/cool the background pattern. The super Nino probably stunted the half baked Nina last year!

[bubba hotep]

I'm also ready for fall, last fall was so awesome...

[Brent]

I'm also ready for fall, last fall was so awesome...

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/climd ... 5.prcp.png

I just tell myself it can't possibly be any worse... but 2016 was worse than 2015 so...

[Yukon Cornelius]

This may be more for the winter thread but what lingering effect, if any, does the Super Nino have on this coming up fall and winter? I don't know if I can take another warm winter.

[Ntxw]

Another seasonably hot and humid day. Weather globally is quite boring if you ask me. If not for Fernanda about to bomb out in the EPAC and crossing into CPAC close to Hawaii not much going on in the tropics, gnarly surfing weather on the Hawaiian beaches next week

[weatherdude1108]

Well, looks like parts of San Antonio may be getting in on something. I hope it becomes more widespread in the days to come, as the moderate drought is spreading in this area.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
332 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2017

TXZ204-205-220-132115-
Bexar TX-Atascosa TX-Medina TX-
332 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL MEDINA...
NORTHWESTERN ATASCOSA AND WESTERN BEXAR COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

At 331 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Somerset, or 11 miles southwest of Stinson Municipal Airport, moving
northwest at 25 mph.

Winds of 40-50 mph will be possible with this storm in addition to
freqeuent cloud to ground lightning and heavy downpours.

Locations impacted include...
San Antonio, Castroville, Stinson Municipal Airport, Leon Valley,
Helotes, Alamo Heights, Fair Oaks Ranch, Shavano Park, Lytle, Olmos
Park, Somerset, Natalia, Lacoste, Cross Mountain, Noonan, The
Dominion, Mico, Pearson, Bader and Sea World.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Austin San Antonio.



Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
235 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper level low over the Big
Bend region. Low level flow was from the south to southeast bringing
moisture rich air from the Gulf. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
were ongoing across the western half of the CWA. This activity
should continue tonight as the upper low moves slowly away to the
west. Friday convection will move in from the east and we will see
slight chances across the eastern counties. Friday`s convection will
be mainly diurnally driven and should dissipate overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Saturday an upper level weakness will develop in the western Gulf and
begin moving into Texas. This will continue over the weekend and
early part of next week. There will be chances for showers and
thunderstorms each day Saturday through Wednesday. Sunday and Monday
look to be the days with the best chances for widespread showers and
thunderstorms. PW will be 1.5-2.0 inches across the southern and
eastern parts of our CWA during this time, so locally heavy rain is
possible with convection. Temperatures Monday through the end of the
period should be down a few degrees with more cloud cover.

[South Texas Storms]

Unfortunately it poofed after getting north of downtown...

However, better rain chances are expected across the south central Texas this weekend into early next week as a tropical wave move into the area. Some models indicate we could see some rainfall totals of 1-2 inches. Really hope it happens. Our part of the state really needs it.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

As far as the climate discussion above, i truly believe in the urban heat island and it's drastically effecting temperatures in metro areas and some suburbs. Even looking at weather stations in my area, if you look at Sugar Land airport temps, they are always a degree or two lower than others around them. I live on the back of a neighborhood with a very large field and open area behind me, no neighborhood close by and my temps are actually slightly lower.

Lately at night though, my temps havent dropped below 79 degrees. This isnt normal, its possible because of all the rain we have had but 79 as a low i think is high. Have to check on older data. The lack of sunspots on the sun this year will be VERY interesting. This happened in 2009-2010, and that winter was COLD. First time i actually was looking forward to spring. Of course, with many other factors at play, this year, could it be similar? We shall see.

[Portastorm]

:uarrow: Unfortunately it poofed after getting north of downtown...

However, better rain chances are expected across the south central Texas this weekend into early next week as a tropical wave move into the area. Some models indicate we could see some rainfall totals of 1-2 inches. Really hope it happens. Our part of the state really needs it.

Hope you're right, buddy.

102 here today in ATX. We're on the 13th day of this month and for Austin, we've had triple digits on nine of those 13 days. Ugh.

[South Texas Storms]

:uarrow: Unfortunately it poofed after getting north of downtown...

However, better rain chances are expected across the south central Texas this weekend into early next week as a tropical wave move into the area. Some models indicate we could see some rainfall totals of 1-2 inches. Really hope it happens. Our part of the state really needs it.

Hope you're right, buddy.

102 here today in ATX. We're on the 13th day of this month and for Austin, we've had triple digits on nine of those 13 days. Ugh.

I'm trying hard to push it west Porta! I think I've had rain here in Houston every day for the past week it seems. Thundering again right now. Go west storms!

[bubba hotep]

No big N. Texas heat wave this summer? New Euro weeklies run to the end of August and nothing really screams scorch. Get us into the 2nd week of September and then it is all down hill from there, low 80s by Dec based on the last two winters! wait...

Anyway, looking at the QBO and MEI and it is crazy how similar this year is to '09. Who would take an '09/10 winter after the last couple of years?

[Ntxw]

No big N. Texas heat wave this summer? New Euro weeklies run to the end of August and nothing really screams scorch. Get us into the 2nd week of September and then it is all down hill from there, low 80s by Dec based on the last two winters! wait...

Anyway, looking at the QBO and MEI and it is crazy how similar this year is to '09. Who would take an '09/10 winter after the last couple of years?

Brent will never forgive you for throwing around 2009/2010 and if it doesn't pan out . He wasn't here for the footer

But yeah being that we are halfway through July it doesn't seem like we'll see a summer with persistent 100s. Of course we were saying this last summer before the 100s hit after mid July...in September..

[bubba hotep]

No big N. Texas heat wave this summer? New Euro weeklies run to the end of August and nothing really screams scorch. Get us into the 2nd week of September and then it is all down hill from there, low 80s by Dec based on the last two winters! wait...

Anyway, looking at the QBO and MEI and it is crazy how similar this year is to '09. Who would take an '09/10 winter after the last couple of years?

Brent will never forgive you for throwing around 2009/2010 and if it doesn't pan out . He wasn't here for the footer

But yeah being that we are halfway through July it doesn't seem like we'll see a summer with persistent 100s. Of course we were saying this last summer before the 100s hit after mid July...in September..

Yea, I went all in last summer with a prediction of below normal 100 degree days. That looked like pretty good analysis until that late heatwave got DFW to average.