CPAC: FERNANDA - Post-Tropical

[Alyono]

looks like a CCC. Some undercutting shear is present

[Extratropical94]

06E FERNANDA 170713 1200 11.7N 114.5W EPAC 55 1001

55 knots best track.

[Ntxw]

Sun is up

[cycloneye]

Looks like NHC will go up to cat 4.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Fernanda Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017
800 AM PDT Thu Jul 13 2017

Recent IR and WV images show that Fernanda has begun to establish
good outflow in all quadrants, indicating that the shear that
previously affected the tropical storm is diminishing. Recent SSMI
and SSMIS passes from 1016 and 1130 UTC, respectively, show that
that convection is wrapping all the way around a mid-level center,
but the low-level center remains displaced a little to the
north-northeast. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased
to T 3.5 / 55kt, and the initial intensity has been increased to
that value.

Confirming what the satellite data suggests, the analyzed shear has
decreased below 10 kt. Warm SSTs and sufficient moisture are also
contributing to an environment that is very conducive for continued
intensification. The SHIPS-RII shows a greater than 50 percent
chance of a 30 kt increase in 24 hours and a 45 kt increase in 48
hours. This is a notable increase in the probabilities which have
doubled in the last 12 h. Considering the convective structure
of the cyclone has improved over the past few hours, and the lack of
any obvious inhibiting environmental factors, rapid intensification
within the next 24 or 36 hours seems likely. The intensity forecast
has been substantially increased for the first 48 hours and now
explicitly shows an increase of 30 kt within 24 hours. Fernanda is
forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength by tomorrow
evening, with conditions favoring additional intensification after
that. Near the end of the forecast period, the hurricane is
expected to encounter decreasing sea surface temperatures that could
cause slight weakening. The intensity forecast is near the top of
the guidance envelope, close to the corrected consensus aids FSSE
and HCCA.

No major changes have been made to the track forecast. The
initial motion estimate remains 265/9 kt. A deep-layer ridge
extending over a large portion of the eastern north Pacific will
steer Fernanda generally westward for the next 2-3 days. Most of
the dynamical guidance still shows a slight weakening of the ridge
after about 3 days which would cause Fernanda to turn toward the
northwest. The NHC forecast is very close to to the track
consensus TVCN and is nearly on top of the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 11.7N 115.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 11.5N 116.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 11.2N 118.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 11.0N 120.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 11.2N 122.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 12.0N 126.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 13.4N 131.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 15.0N 135.5W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[Kingarabian]

Very intense core.

[cycloneye]

@EricBlake12
#Fernanda has gone through a nice transition from a sheared storm to a central dense overcast, setting the stage for rapid intensification!

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/885501974430535680

[Yellow Evan]

[Kingarabian]

Definitely a hurricane now.

[Kingarabian]

Satcon at 72kts, with ADT having a 4.4 and 75kts.

[Yellow Evan]

13/1800 UTC 11.1N 115.6W T4.0/4.0 FERNANDA -- East Pacific

[Hurricane Andrew]

Go to the msfc.nasa site, pull up GOES-16, and do a 50-frame high-speed IR loop of this storm. Wow"

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 06, 2017071318, , BEST, 0, 114N, 1156W, 65, 995, HU, 34, NEQ, 40, 50, 50, 50, 1012, 160, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FERNANDA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010,

uh the pressure?

[cycloneye]

@RyanMaue
By next week, we'll see what's left of Hurricane Fernanda may affect Hawaii directly w/wind+rain or just large swell.
7-day model location:

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/885576511419559937

[cycloneye]

The RI index continues to go higher. 67% of 25kt RI.

EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FERNANDA EP062017 07/13/17 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 65 73 80 85 90 98 103 106 109 109 106 99 89
V (KT) LAND 65 73 80 85 90 98 103 106 109 109 106 99 89
V (KT) LGEM 65 73 80 86 90 98 105 112 117 116 109 94 78
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 6 4 4 3 5 4 6 4 4 5 2 1 7
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 -2 -3 -2 -3 -4 -3 -3 4 5 0
SHEAR DIR 10 20 19 6 21 57 21 52 42 13 250 336 321
SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.2 28.2 28.6 28.8 28.4 27.6 26.8 26.2
POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 150 149 147 147 151 153 149 141 133 126
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5
700-500 MB RH 71 72 72 71 68 68 68 70 68 64 59 55 47
MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 17 18 20 21 22 26 29 32 31 29
850 MB ENV VOR 12 16 18 19 25 30 15 14 10 14 21 35 64
200 MB DIV 70 80 72 50 75 76 59 88 76 91 62 51 45
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -2 -4 -6 -5 -5 -6 -3 -1 2
LAND (KM) 1409 1464 1524 1593 1666 1809 1926 2052 2182 2307 2369 2237 1960
LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.3 11.2 11.1 10.9 10.9 11.2 11.6 12.1 12.7 13.7 14.5 15.1
LONG(DEG W) 115.6 116.6 117.5 118.5 119.4 121.5 123.6 125.9 128.1 130.2 132.1 134.4 136.9
STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 10 10 10 12 11 11 11 12 12
HEAT CONTENT 22 20 19 18 20 37 53 45 18 13 6 5 2

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1
T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 25.6

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 8. 7. 5.
PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 15. 18. 20. 18. 13.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 8. 15. 20. 25. 33. 38. 41. 44. 44. 41. 34. 24.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 11.4 115.6

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/13/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 12.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.41 5.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.84 13.9
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.19 2.5
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 11.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.54 6.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 9.8
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -3.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.47 0.6
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 200.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.65 0.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 58% is 7.6 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 67% is 4.4 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 58% is 5.6 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 7.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 6.9 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 54% is 6.7 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 34% is 4.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 58.2% 67.2% 58.2% 52.2% 35.7% 54.1% 34.0% 11.6%
Logistic: 60.7% 78.0% 72.0% 69.5% 62.5% 51.5% 38.7% 21.2%
Bayesian: 44.6% 62.7% 41.2% 28.7% 20.4% 17.1% 7.1% 0.2%
Consensus: 54.5% 69.3% 57.2% 50.1% 39.5% 40.9% 26.6% 11.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/13/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[CrazyC83]

I'd probably go 75 kt for its current intensity. It really seems to be taking off - would not be surprised to see a major hurricane out of this by tomorrow.

[Kingarabian]

I'd probably go 75 kt for its current intensity. It really seems to be taking off - would not be surprised to see a major hurricane out of this by tomorrow.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 JUL 2017 Time : 190000 UTC
Lat : 11:38:03 N Lon : 115:37:55 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 979.1mb/ 77.0kt

[Kingarabian]

Euro is north of the islands @ 240 hrs and the GFS is south. (Expect the track to change)

[cycloneye]

Yikes!

[Kingarabian]

Clear for take off.