CPAC: FERNANDA - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: FERNANDA - Hurricane

#221 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jul 14, 2017 3:40 pm

They go with 115kts and Fernanda is a Cat.4 Hurricane.
000
WTPZ41 KNHC 142033
TCDEP1

Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017
200 PM PDT Fri Jul 14 2017

Fernanda's satellite presentation has become even more impressive
than earlier today, with the eye becoming more distinct on
geostationary and microwave imagery. The upper-level outflow is
well-defined over all quadrants, with a fairly symmetric CDO.
There are also banding features over the eastern semicircle of the
circulation. Subjective and objective Dvorak T-numbers are near
6.0 corresponding to an intensity of 115 kt, and that value will be
used for the advisory intensity. It may be of interest that it is
quite unusual to have a hurricane this strong so far south in the
eastern North Pacific basin.

Fernanda will remain in a low-shear environment for the next few
days, with high oceanic heat content. Based on the trends over the
past 24 hours, the official intensity forecast is above most of the
numerical guidance. One complication to the forecast is the
possibility of an eyewall replacement cycle, which is not accounted
for here. Late in the forecast period somewhat cooler waters and,
by day 5, some increase in shear should cause weakening.

The initial motion remains near 265/10 kt. There has not been
much change in the track forecast reasoning from the previous
couple of advisories. A mid-level subtropical ridge to the north
of Fernanda should induce a westward to west-northwestward track for
the next several days. Some decrease in forward speed is likely
later in the period when the tropical cyclone nears a weakness
or col region of the ridge. The official track forecast is a blend
of the simple and corrected dynamical consensus predictions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 10.7N 119.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 10.9N 121.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 11.3N 123.7W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 11.9N 126.1W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 12.5N 128.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 13.9N 132.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 15.4N 136.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 19/1800Z 16.5N 139.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: EPAC: FERNANDA - Hurricane

#222 Postby HurricaneRyan » Fri Jul 14, 2017 3:41 pm

Is this a Cat 4 now?
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Re: EPAC: FERNANDA - Hurricane

#223 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 14, 2017 3:42 pm

HurricaneRyan wrote:Is this a Cat 4 now?


Yes.
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Re: EPAC: FERNANDA - Hurricane

#224 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jul 14, 2017 3:54 pm

First and only cat 4 of the year so far in the NHEM. I know 1900hurricane is angst watching waiting for the WPAC to wake up :lol:

Image
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Re: EPAC: FERNANDA - Hurricane

#225 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Jul 14, 2017 4:03 pm

Ntxw wrote:First and only cat 4 of the year so far in the NHEM. I know 1900hurricane is angst watching waiting for the WPAC to wake up :lol:

[image removed]

Ugh, yes.

Kingarabian wrote:AMSU has 115kts.

CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
HURRICANE FERNANDA
Friday 14jul17 Time: 1733 UTC
Latitude: 10.71 Longitude: -119.22
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 15 [1<--->30]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 952 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 115 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 9mb +/- 10kts )
-----------------------------------------------------------------

What is interesting about that pass is that the brightness temperatures were much colder in the eastern bands than in the eyewall. However, since then the bands have yielded to the CDO on conventional IR, a signal of continued strengthening. It wouldn't surprise me if the actual intensity were a little higher than 115 kt right now.

Image

Image
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Re: EPAC: FERNANDA - Hurricane

#226 Postby RL3AO » Fri Jul 14, 2017 4:08 pm

Appears to be the 2nd lowest latitude category 4 on record in the EPac behind Olaf in 2015.

 https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/885873843780431872


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Re: EPAC: FERNANDA - Hurricane

#227 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jul 14, 2017 4:12 pm

1900hurricane wrote:
Ntxw wrote:First and only cat 4 of the year so far in the NHEM. I know 1900hurricane is angst watching waiting for the WPAC to wake up :lol:

[image removed]

Ugh, yes.

Kingarabian wrote:AMSU has 115kts.

CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
HURRICANE FERNANDA
Friday 14jul17 Time: 1733 UTC
Latitude: 10.71 Longitude: -119.22
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 15 [1<--->30]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 952 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 115 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 9mb +/- 10kts )
-----------------------------------------------------------------

What is interesting about that pass is that the brightness temperatures were much colder in the eastern bands than in the eyewall. However, since then the bands have yielded to the CDO on conventional IR, a signal of continued strengthening. It wouldn't surprise me if the actual intensity were a little higher than 115 kt right now.

[ig]http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/amsu/archive/2017/201706E/201706E0714_1733_ch16.gif[/img]

[ig]http://i.imgur.com/IwsgqV8.gif[/img]



2017 EP 06 195.604 2017JUL14 143000 10.76 118.76 2 952 117
2017 EP 06 195.625 2017JUL14 150000 10.75 118.85 2 952 117
2017 EP 06 195.646 2017JUL14 153000 10.74 118.94 2 952 118
2017 EP 06 195.667 2017JUL14 160000 10.73 118.92 2 952 113
2017 EP 06 195.688 2017JUL14 163000 10.72 119.01 2 952 113
2017 EP 06 195.708 2017JUL14 170000 10.72 119.09 2 952 115
2017 EP 06 195.729 2017JUL14 173000 10.71 119.17 2 952 115
2017 EP 06 195.750 2017JUL14 180000 10.71 119.25 2 952 116
2017 EP 06 195.771 2017JUL14 183000 10.70 119.32 2 952 116


SATCON's mean was @ 118 earlier.

I would say the intensity is closer to 125kts. Storms with smaller eyes I believe, tend to be more intense.
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Re: EPAC: FERNANDA - Hurricane

#228 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jul 14, 2017 4:24 pm

impressive-looking hurricane I must admit
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Re: EPAC: FERNANDA - Hurricane

#229 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jul 14, 2017 4:39 pm

Image
http://imgur.com/a/pf4KR

You can see the Cat. 1 to Cat.4 rapid intensification in 24 hours here (from Wunderground):

http://imgur.com/bT1mjMW
Last edited by Kingarabian on Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: EPAC: FERNANDA - Hurricane

#230 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:03 pm

Image

From GOES 16 ADT

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 JUL 2017 Time : 211537 UTC
Lat : 10:45:08 N Lon : 119:47:30 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 950.8mb/119.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.5 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

Center Temp : +17.6C Cloud Region Temp : -69.7C

Scene Type : EYE
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Re: EPAC: FERNANDA - Hurricane

#231 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:09 pm

Goes 16 has a considerably better resolution it's no joke. Look at the difference between the Goes 16 ADT vs the Goes 15 ADT. Who knows how many storms were robbed of their true intensities due to the lower quality Goes 15.
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Re: EPAC: FERNANDA - Hurricane

#232 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:11 pm

I would say that Cat 5 could be reachable at this rate, but it would need colder cloud tops first. I don't think a T7.0 is possible without at least a hint of CMG for such a small storm.

Definitely looks to be knocking on T6.5 though - I probably would have gone 120 kt.
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Re: EPAC: FERNANDA - Hurricane

#233 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:20 pm

Image

T6.5 now.
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Re: EPAC: FERNANDA - Hurricane

#234 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:23 pm

Probably pushing on Emily of 2005 levels. ;) Looks better then Hurricane Charley of 2004 at the least.
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Re: EPAC: FERNANDA - Hurricane

#235 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:30 pm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 JUL 2017 Time : 213000 UTC
Lat : 10:45:16 N Lon : 119:49:48 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 948.7mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.2 6.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km

Center Temp : +15.3C Cloud Region Temp : -67.4C

Scene Type : EYE


----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 JUL 2017 Time : 214537 UTC
Lat : 10:45:26 N Lon : 119:52:20 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 948.7mb/122.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.5 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

Center Temp : +18.1C Cloud Region Temp : -69.8C

Scene Type : EYE
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Re: EPAC: FERNANDA - Hurricane

#236 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:35 pm

:uarrow: Conspiracy, must go back and check out those 135kts EPAC canes again :lol: like many have mentioned the resolution makes a difference.
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Re: EPAC: FERNANDA - Hurricane

#237 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Jul 14, 2017 6:21 pm

Sciencerocks wrote:Probably pushing on Emily of 2005 levels. ;) Looks better then Hurricane Charley of 2004 at the least.


Dvorak would never have analyzed Charley very well due to the tiny core.
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Re: EPAC: FERNANDA - Hurricane

#238 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jul 14, 2017 6:27 pm

First Cat 4 of the year but not in the WPAC?

Amazing Fernanda. Good thing it's far away from land at the moment.
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Re: EPAC: FERNANDA - Hurricane

#239 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jul 14, 2017 6:33 pm

Still pretty intense. Worthy of 125kts next update at least?

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 JUL 2017 Time : 224538 UTC
Lat : 10:46:14 N Lon : 120:02:31 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 946.6mb/124.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.5 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

Center Temp : +15.8C Cloud Region Temp : -69.5C

Scene Type : EYE
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Re: EPAC: FERNANDA - Hurricane

#240 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Jul 14, 2017 6:34 pm

Fernanda in many respects reminds me of a low latitude WPAC Super Typhoon.
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