2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[Alyono]

EC calling for a cyclone in the Bay of Bengal this weekend. A but different than a normal July/August cyclone in that this one gets fairly far south into the BOB. One of those rare south of the monsoon trough cyclones

[cycloneye]

@RyanMaue
Update on progress of GFS model upgrade skill scores. No change to upper-level 5-day NH skill. Implementation scheduled July 19, 12z

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/885669380692074496

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET with some weak development of the wave the GFS and CMC were hinting might develop:

[Nimbus]

Saw that on the goes 16 visible imagery, classic wave gaining some latitude.
TUTT is still there to shear anything north of the islands.
It would be a huge help if they could increase the accuracy of even just the major players in the upper air pattern predictions..

[1900hurricane]

EC calling for a cyclone in the Bay of Bengal this weekend. A but different than a normal July/August cyclone in that this one gets fairly far south into the BOB. One of those rare south of the monsoon trough cyclones

I've been kinda keeping an eye on that. Looks like it's tied to the same surge in the SW monsoon currently aiding 94W. I'm kinda thinking it'll be a similar type of broad monsoon depression type system as 94W too.

[Weather150]

Looks like pressures will begin to lower after July 25th, meaning once we get into early August we could try to see something spin up in that region.

[cycloneye]

GFS-Para for August 1rst.Not as conservative as it has been described.

[TheStormExpert]

Hmmm... Maybe beginning signs of the lid coming off once we enter August?

[tarheelprogrammer]

Yeah even the new ECMWF run looks to be hinting at better conditions in 10 days or so.

[Hurricaneman]

The parallel GFS seems to be more accurate with cyclogenesis than the current GFS similar to the Euro actually

[Kingarabian]

Nothing of interest from the EPS through 16 days.

[tarheelprogrammer]

GFS-Para (Soon to OP) nothing through 384 hours. Actually not even much vorticity at all in the Atlantic in the later part of the run. It is like a ghost town. Are conditions not supposed to flip to favorable in early August?

[Stormcenter]

Well we all know (or should) that really doesn't mean anything when you go past 5 days. IMO

GFS-Para (Soon to OP) nothing through 384 hours. Actually not even much vorticity at all in the Atlantic in the later part of the run. It is like a ghost town. Are conditions not supposed to flip to favorable in early August?

[RL3AO]

GFS-Para (Soon to OP) nothing through 384 hours. Actually not even much vorticity at all in the Atlantic in the later part of the run. It is like a ghost town. Are conditions not supposed to flip to favorable in early August?

I remember similar posts being made about a week ago. An invest and a TS later...

[tarheelprogrammer]

GFS-Para (Soon to OP) nothing through 384 hours. Actually not even much vorticity at all in the Atlantic in the later part of the run. It is like a ghost town. Are conditions not supposed to flip to favorable in early August?

I remember similar posts being made about a week ago. An invest and a TS later...

That is true. I was just pointing it out, as usually models pick up on changing environments pretty far out.

[Steve]

GFS-Para (Soon to OP) nothing through 384 hours. Actually not even much vorticity at all in the Atlantic in the later part of the run. It is like a ghost town. Are conditions not supposed to flip to favorable in early August?

I remember similar posts being made about a week ago. An invest and a TS later...

That is true. I was just pointing it out, as usually models pick up on changing environments pretty far out.

I'm eager to see the new CFSV2 seasonal runs come out. The ones from late June show negative precipitation anomalies in the Western Caribbean for August-September-October. That seems to be against what the actual weather is showing unless most developing tropical waves avoid getting close to Latin America.

[TheStormExpert]

It is possible that this could be another bust of a season a lot like 2013 though probably not quite as dead. So far we have yet to have a storm that can manage to become a strong TS or more and last more than just a few days.

[chaser1]

GFS-Para (Soon to OP) nothing through 384 hours. Actually not even much vorticity at all in the Atlantic in the later part of the run. It is like a ghost town. Are conditions not supposed to flip to favorable in early August?

I remember similar posts being made about a week ago. An invest and a TS later...

I was just thinking the same thing LOL!! "Nothing, nada, zip..... right up to the point 2-5 days later.... when either the models (or the tropics themselves) suddenly light up! Lets think about this for just a second. Its July 18 and at a climatological low for the Atlantic basin. How many past hurricane seasons have had 4 or more Tropical Storms at this point in the season? I'm willing to wager that of those relative fewer number of years that exhibited this level of early activity, the majority of those years ended up as above average in the number of named storms. Therefore, if left to ponder which is more likely #1 Season Slowing or Ending Soon verses #2 Models Suck or Models Neutered...... I'm gonna lean toward #2

[Macrocane]

I'm eager to see the new CFSV2 seasonal runs come out. The ones from late June show negative precipitation anomalies in the Western Caribbean for August-September-October. That seems to be against what the actual weather is showing unless most developing tropical waves avoid getting close to Latin America.

You're right. I don't understand why the CFS is showing supressed convection in Central America and the Caribbean when at the same time it shows ENSO going into cold neutral by the end of the year and wind shear not as strong as 2014-2015 summers.

[chaser1]

So far we have yet to have a storm that can manage to become a strong TS or more and last more than just a few days.

Very true. That clearly underscores what Atlantic tropical genesis conditions are for June and July. This is "old news". Climatology has made it very evident that conditions in the Atlantic basin during June and July just do not typically support much tropical development or typically strong hurricanes. Sure, there are a few years that contradict that but generally most seasons exhibit stronger storms with long tracks typically starting from about the end of July or even later. Think of all the years where the very first named storm never even formed until after this date.