Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic
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- cycloneye
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Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic
Some models hint on some development on this area located in the monsoon trough.Let's see what happens down the road.
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- weathaguyry
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Re: Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic (Behind 95L)
Very interesting, getting twin storms in the MDR in mid-july, and an overall total of 4 tropical cyclones in the MDR before the end of July would be astonishing, I could already hear the reversal of season cancel posts to active scary season posts in an instant if that happens
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- cycloneye
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Re: Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic (Behind 95L)
A low will be added at the 06z surface analysis.
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Re: Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic (Behind 95L)
That is a massive amount of convection--and aren't we in the suppressive phase of the MJO?
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Re: Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic (Behind 95L)
Hammy wrote:That is a massive amount of convection--and aren't we in the suppressive phase of the MJO?
From the last update the MJO signal is in Phase 3, not sure if that location puts the suppressed side of the MJO over the Atlantic/West Africa.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic (Behind 95L)
00z GFS really likes the second wave behind 95L.
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- AtlanticWind
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Re: Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic (Behind 95L)
GFS Parallel likes both
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- cycloneye
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Re: Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic (Behind 95L)
Much stronger GFS-Para.
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- TropicalAnalystwx13
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Re: Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic (Behind 95L)
Hammy wrote:That is a massive amount of convection--and aren't we in the suppressive phase of the MJO?
MJO is neutral. Strong CCKW just passed by though:
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Re: Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic (Behind 95L)
Trend has been stronger past couple runs.
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- Hurricaneman
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Re: Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic (Behind 95L)
Wouldn't be surprised if this one is 96L sometime tomorrow
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Re: Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic (Behind 95L)
I think the 2 AM TWO will mention both 95L and this area of disturbed weather.
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- AJC3
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Re: Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic (Behind 95L)
There's a sharp, well-defined wind shift embedded within the ITCZ between 36W and 41W and 8N-10N that was captured by earlier ASCAT pass. That's a very healthy area of surface convergence producing all that deep convection. Will it become a separate entity over the course of the next few days?
Stitched ASCAT pass...
Stitched ASCAT pass...
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Re: Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic (Behind 95L)
00z HWRF liking the wave behind 95L too.
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- ScottNAtlanta
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Re: Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic (Behind 95L)
Hammy wrote:That is a massive amount of convection--and aren't we in the suppressive phase of the MJO?
4, 5, and 6 are suppressive on this side of the world
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Re: Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic (Behind 95L)
not sure why more people are not paying attention this.. not sure if people realize how large this system would become.. lol
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Re: Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic (Behind 95L)
Aric Dunn wrote:not sure why more people are not paying attention this.. not sure if people realize how large this system would become.. lol
Most likely because it's still relatively new, and/or this really is not going to develop since it's about to hit the wall of shear in about a couple of days.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
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Re: Disturbed weather in East/Central Atlantic (Behind 95L)
AutoPenalti wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:not sure why more people are not paying attention this.. not sure if people realize how large this system would become.. lol
Most likely because it's still relatively new, and/or this really is not going to develop since it's about to hit the wall of shear in about a couple of days.
wall of shear ? where ?
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Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
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I believe the sky is falling...
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