2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[weathaguyry]

It is possible that this could be another bust of a season a lot like 2013 though probably not quite as dead. So far we have yet to have a storm that can manage to become a strong TS or more and last more than just a few days.

The fact that we've already had 3 TC's in the MDR before July 20th is amazing, 3 short lived TC's in the MDR is more of a seasonal indicator than 3 strong TC's in the subtropics.

[hcane27]

number of years since 1950 with July named storms 4 or greater .... 12 and named storms after July 31 in those years

YEAR Thru July after
2005 7 21
1959 5 6
1966 5 6
1995 5 14
1997 5 3
1989 4 7
2003 4 12
2008 4 12
2011 4 15
2012 4 15
2013 4 10
2016 4 11

[MetroMike]

It is possible that this could be another bust of a season a lot like 2013 though probably not quite as dead. So far we have yet to have a storm that can manage to become a strong TS or more and last more than just a few days.

I just don't see that happening with the current SST in the MDR. In 2013 there was massive cooling in the eastern MDR near the African coast. Basically shut down an expected busy season.

[AxaltaRacing24]

And the annual July season cancel posts begin!

[RL3AO]

And the annual July season cancel posts begin!

They started last week. They'll continue after Don. Same old same old. The same people last week who were claiming no more storms until the end of August... It's quite comical really.

[RL3AO]

number of years since 1950 with July named storms 4 or greater .... 12 and named storms after July 31 in those years

I'd argue the list of seasons with two or more tropical storms forming in the MDR (east of Caribbean) by the end of July is more useful.

1887 19 11 2 181
1901 13 6 0 99
1926 11 8 6 230
1933 21 10 5 259
1944 14 8 3 104
1966 11 7 3 145
1979 9 6 2 93
1995 19 11 5 227
1996 13 9 6 166
2005 28 15 7 250
2013 14 2 0 36
Avg 15.6 8.4 3.5 163

[hcane27]

i agree , but would actually not include any seasons prior to 1966 .... satellite-era and such

[chaser1]

number of years since 1950 with July named storms 4 or greater .... 12 and named storms after July 31 in those years

YEAR Thru July after
2005 7 21
1959 5 6
1966 5 6
1995 5 14
1997 5 3
1989 4 7
2003 4 12
2008 4 12
2011 4 15
2012 4 15
2013 4 10
2016 4 11

Good stuff! After a quick analysis, the results are fairly obvious. Of those 12 hurricane seasons having as much or more Tropical Cyclone activity as this year, 4 of them (33% of the time) the pace of development slowed with those seasons ending with an average (11 named storms) or below average number of named storms for that year. On the other hand, 8 of the 12 years (66%), not only did those seasons end up proving to be above average in activity..... but the average of those years leaned toward "well above average" in terms of the number of storms for each year. I have no idea what define's " a hyper-active season" but its interesting to note that within these particular 8 years which did continue to prove to be above active - 4 of the 8 years (50% of those years), those seasons ended with 19 or more named storms. I think we're at the beginning of what'll be a very busy Atlantic hurricane season. I think those who threw their hat in the ring during the pre-season Poll and guessed 14 or under named storms for the year, might just be "out of the money"

[RL3AO]

i agree , but would actually not include any seasons prior to 1966 .... satellite-era and such

Why ignore a century of okay data and leave yourself with only 50 years of great data? The pre-satellite era seasons are full of errors, but they're useful to use.

[Stormcenter]

If I recall correctly we were only on the E (Emily) storms at this time in 2005....NOT saying we are in for that kind of season. I'm just saying there
is a lot and I mean a lot time left in the season. Things can change very quickly in the tropics despite what the models are saying. I'm still waiting for that
GFS phantom storm striking Florida from last week to pop up again.

So far we have yet to have a storm that can manage to become a strong TS or more and last more than just a few days.

Very true. That clearly underscores what Atlantic tropical genesis conditions are for June and July. This is "old news". Climatology has made it very evident that conditions in the Atlantic basin during June and July just do not typically support much tropical development or typically strong hurricanes. Sure, there are a few years that contradict that but generally most seasons exhibit stronger storms with long tracks typically starting from about the end of July or even later. Think of all the years where the very first named storm never even formed until after this date.

[hcane27]

Primarily because i don't believe "ok" data is nearly as useful "great data" when examining the past for hints to the future. "Ok" data gave us such predictions of a "global cooling" and a new ice age in the 1970's ... see how that turned out...

[Hammy]

It is possible that this could be another bust of a season a lot like 2013 though probably not quite as dead. So far we have yet to have a storm that can manage to become a strong TS or more and last more than just a few days.

Again, 2013 had thermohaline issues. EPAC was also below average by this point, being at 6/4/0 (nothing but low-end Cat 1 hurricanes) whereas it's been quite active so far. Many active seasons have had little to no activity before August:
1980 had no storms before Aug 1 (and only one depression prior.)
1988 had no storms before Aug 7 (and again only one depression prior.)
1998 had no storms before Jul 27, which was short lived, and another quiet period until August 18.
1999 had only one storm in June, and then nothing until Aug 18.
2000 had no storms (and only two depressions) before Aug 4.
2001 had only one storm before Aug 2.
2004 didn't have so much as even a tropical depression before July 31.
2007 had only three short-lived storms prior to Aug 14.
2010, despite having Alex in June, had only two short-lived storms between July 1 and Aug 20.
2012 was quiet the entire month of July.
2016, excluding Alex (as it was an anomaly in itself, occurring in January) had only a few short-lived storms prior to Aug 1, and like 2012 nothing in July.

We really don't have a strong indicator either way here--the fact that we've had nothing but weaker short-lived storms so far could likewise be used as an indicator of an active season: could all these shorter-lived storms (two in the MDR) be an indicator of an active season by forming despite unfavorable conditions, whereas in a normal year would've only had Cindy by this point?

[MetroMike]

There any models showing anything in the next 2 weeks?

[TheStormExpert]

There any models showing anything in the next 2 weeks?

Nope. Nothing through the first three days of August, hopefully that changes.

[chaser1]

Must be time for a new poll, how many tropical depressions (or stronger) by July 31?
A) 0
B) 1
C) 2
D) 3

I'd guess "C"

[Hammy]

Must be time for a new poll, how many tropical depressions (or stronger) by July 31?
A) 0
B) 1
C) 2
D) 3

I'd guess "C"

I'm sticking to my prediction of an MDR system in the last days of July, so I'll say at least one more, possibly two.

[Ntxw]

GFS, as far as I am aware, will be replaced by GFS Parallel tomorrow starting 12Z as planned by Ncep

[Hammy]

GFS, as far as I am aware, will be replaced by GFS Parallel tomorrow starting 12Z as planned by Ncep

I haven't followed the parallel model--how has it performed vs the GFS on cyclogenesis?

[Ntxw]

GFS, as far as I am aware, will be replaced by GFS Parallel tomorrow starting 12Z as planned by Ncep

I haven't followed the parallel model--how has it performed vs the GFS on cyclogenesis?

It's done a decent job in the EPAC medium range. Seems on the conservative side in the Atlantic but the Atlantic hasn't produced yet anything long lasting or strong enough to put to the test yet, I tend to give a pass to guidance when it comes to small, low profile systems. It seems less enthused about 300+ hr phantoms from what I have seen compared to its predecessor.

[Kingarabian]

GFS, as far as I am aware, will be replaced by GFS Parallel tomorrow starting 12Z as planned by Ncep

I haven't followed the parallel model--how has it performed vs the GFS on cyclogenesis?

I've been using it quite a bit and its done a fine job. Shows a few head scratching stuff but its been holding its own vs the Euro.