ATL: Ex INVEST 96L - Discussion
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
Is over.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
An elongated low pressure area located about midway between the Cabo
Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles is moving into a drier and
more stable air mass, and the associated shower activity is
decreasing. Little or no development is likely to occur as the
system moves toward the west-northwest or northwest at 10 to 15 mph
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
Forecaster Beven
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
An elongated low pressure area located about midway between the Cabo
Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles is moving into a drier and
more stable air mass, and the associated shower activity is
decreasing. Little or no development is likely to occur as the
system moves toward the west-northwest or northwest at 10 to 15 mph
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
and there you have it. I just can't see how this thing ever had a whole lot of a chance given the massive SAL all around it and never had much in the way of model support. Even Bastardi was pessimistic about it's chances, lol!cycloneye wrote:Is over.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
An elongated low pressure area located about midway between the Cabo
Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles is moving into a drier and
more stable air mass, and the associated shower activity is
decreasing. Little or no development is likely to occur as the
system moves toward the west-northwest or northwest at 10 to 15 mph
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
Forecaster Beven
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- northjaxpro
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
SAL for the time being is killing these cyclones. Good thing though or else we would be potentially discussing much other greater concerns for sure.
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
It's really not looking all that bad at the moment. Had a nice flare up of convection but I doubt it will last.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
znel52 wrote:It's really not looking all that bad at the moment. Had a nice flare up of convection but I doubt it will last.
Not looking all that bad.. that convection needs to expand more and maintain for a good 12 hours or so.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
Agree Eric,
If it can continue to produce the convection and not start moving to fast to the west, there is a chance. On a side note the ULL that has been parked NE of the Bahamas forever is it ever going to move or dissipate.
If it can continue to produce the convection and not start moving to fast to the west, there is a chance. On a side note the ULL that has been parked NE of the Bahamas forever is it ever going to move or dissipate.
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- ScottNAtlanta
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
Let me remind everyone it is still mid July, one of the most UNfavorable times of the season looking at climatology. It should be dead right about now. See what the SAL looks like mid August (and these waves)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
Nothing is going to come out of Invest 96L, it's going to be dropped by the NHC totally very soon.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
cycloneye wrote:Is over.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
An elongated low pressure area located about midway between the Cabo
Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles is moving into a drier and
more stable air mass, and the associated shower activity is
decreasing. Little or no development is likely to occur as the
system moves toward the west-northwest or northwest at 10 to 15 mph
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
Forecaster Beven
It's better this way. No sense wasting a good name like Emily on something that had no future. Maybe everyone can save their energy and analysis for something a little more significant.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
$$
Forecaster Avila
NNNN
96L is no more.
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
$$
Forecaster Avila
NNNN
96L is no more.
0 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
Weather150 wrote:ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
$$
Forecaster Avila
NNNN
96L is no more.
Man, they really issued that Outlook early!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
convection has built over the center that was present yesterday. this is by no means dead yet. yeah it has a lot against it but clearly its hanging on. the circ has been more well defined that DON ever was.. never count the tropics out. ...
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- tropicwatch
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
I see the convection this morning but it looks like it is about to run into a buzz saw of shear.
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Former 96L
Good Morning,
I know that this is no longer an invest. But flaring up very nicely this morning, if it can maintain enough convection until it nears the Bahamas, there it may have a window.
I know that this is no longer an invest. But flaring up very nicely this morning, if it can maintain enough convection until it nears the Bahamas, there it may have a window.
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- northjaxpro
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Re: Former 96L
Miami Storm Tracker wrote:Good Morning,
I know that this is no longer an invest. But flaring up very nicely this morning, if it can maintain enough convection until it nears the Bahamas, there it may have a window.
This system has done this consistently with the convective flare-ups throughout its life span. The SAL is too much out there right now. I agree that the current convective burst is impressive. I will keep a wary eye on this area, just to see if regeneration can occur, but that is not likely. But, never say NEVER to any of these systems in the tropics.
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
________________________________________________________________________________________
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 96L - Discussion
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M a r k
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 96L - Discussion
eX 96L can be seen in the water vapor loops quite clearly.
The TUTS are currently changing the upper air pattern to a less sheared environment short term.
Big trough just dropped south through Florida and that would likely steer or shear anything the models develop later.
The TUTS are currently changing the upper air pattern to a less sheared environment short term.
Big trough just dropped south through Florida and that would likely steer or shear anything the models develop later.
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 96L - Discussion
Look at that shear racing ahead of it , I don't think so. Nothing will come out of it.
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 96L - Discussion
Will the ULL NE of the Bahamas ever move out. It seems like a permanent fixture been sitting there spinning forever.
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 96L - Discussion
GOES16 shortwave. Nice view using SLIDER
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=17444&y=7207&z=3&im=6&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=6&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=17444&y=7207&z=3&im=6&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=6&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider
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