2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
-
- Admin
- Posts: 19182
- Age: 60
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
Some of the strongest seasons didn't have any significant activity until late August. I don't want to end any discussions but I do want to remind people that having no activity in July all the way to late August is a very common occurrence and as far as I can tell no indication whatsoever of future activity.
July has high pressure, July has dust, July generally has very little activity.
I think we need to keep our eyes on the overall conditions and off the models, especially the GFS upper air which has a pretty low skill score past 5 days. As long as the EPAC stays active we can expect the Atlantic, at least the western Atlantic, to have shear and generally be unfavorable for development.
So overall has anything changed that would make this season unfavorable during the typical peak from mid August to mid October?
July has high pressure, July has dust, July generally has very little activity.
I think we need to keep our eyes on the overall conditions and off the models, especially the GFS upper air which has a pretty low skill score past 5 days. As long as the EPAC stays active we can expect the Atlantic, at least the western Atlantic, to have shear and generally be unfavorable for development.
So overall has anything changed that would make this season unfavorable during the typical peak from mid August to mid October?
4 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
tolakram wrote:Some of the strongest seasons didn't have any significant activity until late August. I don't want to end any discussions but I do want to remind people that having no activity in July all the way to late August is a very common occurrence and as far as I can tell no indication whatsoever of future activity.
July has high pressure, July has dust, July generally has very little activity.
I think we need to keep our eyes on the overall conditions and off the models, especially the GFS upper air which has a pretty low skill score past 5 days. As long as the EPAC stays active we can expect the Atlantic, at least the western Atlantic, to have shear and generally be unfavorable for development.
So overall has anything changed that would make this season unfavorable during the typical peak from mid August to mid October?
Very well said. The Atlantic is the latest starting of the 3 big ones and contends with SAL nothing unusual so far. I think the culprit can be that when people throw around 2005 as an analog every year it becomes a mild sense of not living up when big hurricanes don't show up in July to fit that mold.
0 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
The few short term negatives that I see at the moment is vertical instability being below normal in the deep tropics but I'm not not sure if that's truly a good predictor or just hindsight data. Carib shear of late is now above normal, but more important even when near or below normal its persistence has been somewhat of a deterrence, normal shear is still shear it needs balance of periods with little to no shear. If that continues in August then that would be a time to look as early signs.
0 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
Ntxw wrote:tolakram wrote:Some of the strongest seasons didn't have any significant activity until late August......
So overall has anything changed that would make this season unfavorable during the typical peak from mid August to mid October?
Very well said. The Atlantic is the latest starting of the 3 big ones and contends with SAL nothing unusual so far. I think the culprit can be that when people throw around 2005 as an analog every year it becomes a mild sense of not living up when big hurricanes don't show up in July to fit that mold.
That, or....................... there's a little NinalConde in many of us
2 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139593
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
@philklotzbach
Rainfall in western Sahel has generally been above-average over the past month - often a harbinger of an active Atlantic hurricane season
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/888029617054822400
Rainfall in western Sahel has generally been above-average over the past month - often a harbinger of an active Atlantic hurricane season
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/888029617054822400
1 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
this is a place where weather fanatics who want storms gather, pretend they don't want storms, fight over existing storms and then (even in the most active seasons) argue about why there will be no more storms. It is a hoot. This is really an expectations game. Atlantic basin watchers should expect nothing in June, July and November as that is frequently what happens. nothing of consequence. Right now we're in what should be a slow time...leading to the predictable season cancel posts. it's the same thing every year. Relax and enjoy the scenery. August 10 is coming.
4 likes
- TheStormExpert
- Category 5
- Posts: 8487
- Age: 30
- Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
- Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL
Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
psyclone wrote:this is a place where weather fanatics who want storms gather, pretend they don't want storms, fight over existing storms and then (even in the most active seasons) argue about why there will be no more storms. It is a hoot. This is really an expectations game. Atlantic basin watchers should expect nothing in June, July and November as that is frequently what happens. nothing of consequence. Right now we're in what should be a slow time...leading to the predictable season cancel posts. it's the same thing every year. Relax and enjoy the scenery. August 10 is coming.
If that's the case then why is June, July, and November considered hurricane season?
1 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.
Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
TheStormExpert wrote:psyclone wrote:this is a place where weather fanatics who want storms gather, pretend they don't want storms, fight over existing storms and then (even in the most active seasons) argue about why there will be no more storms. It is a hoot. This is really an expectations game. Atlantic basin watchers should expect nothing in June, July and November as that is frequently what happens. nothing of consequence. Right now we're in what should be a slow time...leading to the predictable season cancel posts. it's the same thing every year. Relax and enjoy the scenery. August 10 is coming.
If that's the case then why is June, July, and November considered hurricane season?
Because storms can happen but they usually don't. June, July and November comprise half of hurricane season time but nowhere near half the storms...and certainly not the quality storms (with rare exceptions of course). this brings up an interesting point...people are lousy at thinking in terms of probabilities but that is an essential skill...perhaps that helps explain the popularity of lotteries. think in term of probabilities rather than possibilities..
1 likes
-
- Admin
- Posts: 19182
- Age: 60
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
Even with the dust check out the mid level water vapor loop.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/wvmid/movies/wvmid5new.html
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/wvmid/movies/wvmid5new.html
0 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
-
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 190
- Joined: Fri Jul 07, 2017 7:46 pm
Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
psyclone wrote:this is a place where weather fanatics who want storms gather, pretend they don't want storms, fight over existing storms and then (even in the most active seasons) argue about why there will be no more storms. It is a hoot. This is really an expectations game. Atlantic basin watchers should expect nothing in June, July and November as that is frequently what happens. nothing of consequence. Right now we're in what should be a slow time...leading to the predictable season cancel posts. it's the same thing every year. Relax and enjoy the scenery. August 10 is coming.
I wouldn't really say those months are "nothing of consequence", even though not a lot of activity happen during those months, you can still get bad storms that bring flooding during those months. Wind is not the only danger.
0 likes
Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
TheStormExpert wrote:If that's the case then why is June, July, and November considered hurricane season?
November gets a storm on average once every other year, and June with slightly greater frequency--compare that with December and May, and there's your answer.
3 likes
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
Here's something I found interesting. You can make out a pretty clear ER wave pattern in the far eastern Atlantic over the past month and into the next couple weeks. We had the westerly anomalies in early July (enhanced ER wave), we're currently getting in easterly anomalies (suppressed ER wave), with the forecast of westerlies returning by next week. Tropical waves are fun!
1 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4806
- Age: 40
- Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
- Location: South Florida
Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
RL3AO wrote:Here's something I found interesting. You can make out a pretty clear ER wave pattern in the far eastern Atlantic over the past month and into the next couple weeks. We had the westerly anomalies in early July (enhanced ER wave), we're currently getting in easterly anomalies (suppressed ER wave), with the forecast of westerlies returning by next week. Tropical waves are fun!
It also shows a major trade burst at 3.4 in the Pacific. It may not cool 3.4 but it should put a stop to warming while the burst is occurring.
Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3950
- Age: 27
- Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
- Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
RL3AO wrote:Here's something I found interesting. You can make out a pretty clear ER wave pattern in the far eastern Atlantic over the past month and into the next couple weeks. We had the westerly anomalies in early July (enhanced ER wave), we're currently getting in easterly anomalies (suppressed ER wave), with the forecast of westerlies returning by next week. Tropical waves are fun!
So to understand this correctly, the blue indicates easterly trade bursts and the yellow and orange indicate westerlies?
0 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
-
- Category 1
- Posts: 331
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2010 5:21 pm
- Location: New Orleans
Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
I'm convinced that we have a (fertile) MDR this year. While I would not bet on nor discount a well developed hurricane prior to August 10th. I would take bets and lay odds on the E storm ( Emily) before August 1st, and definitely bet on at least the F storm by August 10th.
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139593
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
@EricBlake12
Big changes coming to the global circulation if the CFS is right- goes from a quiet Atlantic tropics week 1 to busy in week 3
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/888162972832542720
Big changes coming to the global circulation if the CFS is right- goes from a quiet Atlantic tropics week 1 to busy in week 3
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/888162972832542720
1 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
may take until the 3rd week for activity to pick up. often a lag between favorable conditions and tcs
0 likes
- tarheelprogrammer
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1793
- Joined: Mon Mar 28, 2016 9:25 pm
- Location: Raleigh, NC area (Garner, NC)
Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
Not good signs for Atlantic development, or an active season I do believe. I could be reading it wrong though.
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/888493729295630336
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/888493168433528833
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/888493729295630336
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/888493168433528833
0 likes
My posts are not official forecasts. They are just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15461
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
I don't know about the MEI right now. It's a head scratcher. ENSO signals are very mixed at this point. Just by looking at the subsurface, if we muster any El Nino out by ASO, it would be a weak one.
1 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- TheStormExpert
- Category 5
- Posts: 8487
- Age: 30
- Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
- Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL
Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
JB, the same guy predicting the major hurricane drought would end this season is also not bullish on an active August at least? I know it only takes one!
In my opinion I'm starting to wonder if this season is being overhyped by many in terms of favorable potential and how active it may really be. Yes there are plenty of positives out there but there are several negatives as well which would in favor suggest that the Pacific (especially East/Central) will be the focus point this year again like it has been for the past 3-4 seasons. You also already have one or two people mentioning how things now might not be favorable for the lid to come off in the Atlantic until the third week in August which suggests to me that we might already be pushing the arrival of favorable conditions in the Atlantic just like what kept happening back in 2013 when those favorable conditions never came to be like many were expecting. Just my thoughts.
In my opinion I'm starting to wonder if this season is being overhyped by many in terms of favorable potential and how active it may really be. Yes there are plenty of positives out there but there are several negatives as well which would in favor suggest that the Pacific (especially East/Central) will be the focus point this year again like it has been for the past 3-4 seasons. You also already have one or two people mentioning how things now might not be favorable for the lid to come off in the Atlantic until the third week in August which suggests to me that we might already be pushing the arrival of favorable conditions in the Atlantic just like what kept happening back in 2013 when those favorable conditions never came to be like many were expecting. Just my thoughts.
2 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: 7cardinal, cajungal, ElectricStorm, Emmett_Brown, Google Adsense [Bot], LarryWx, ouragans and 93 guests