2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[jlauderdal]

Typical late july conditions in the atl basin, i dont expect anything until after aug 5...then a quick ramp up and very active sept and oct, more active than previous years

so everyone get your projects completed in the next two weeks and that includes hurricane supplies and fire up the generator now and let it run for 20 minutes, dont wait unitl you are few days out like the guy across the street did last year when matthew was approaching and it wouldnt start and it was too late to get it repaired, he is ready this year as we had a very close call...

amazon can get you a generator in a few days on prime if you dont have one and want to wait on making an investment...they have some nice portable power inverter units that are quiet and lightweight if you dont need big time power and they produce clean power for phones, computers, etc., make sure it can handle want you want to plug in to it otherwise go for a bigger unit like i have 8000 surge watts but noisy, park it on the side of the house away from where you sleep, no carbon monoxide and the neighbors get the noise

[tarheelprogrammer]

GEFS finally showing something in the long range. Hmmm.

[TheStormExpert]

And in the beginning of August too. Wouldn't be surprised if future GFS runs jump on board with something in that timeframe. Still skeptical though despite this being the new and hopefully much improved GFS.

[Hammy]

Question on the new GFS: has it spewed out phantom storms like the old one, or has it (more similarly to the Euro) more often failed to see or underdeveloped storms prior to genesis?

[TheStormExpert]

Question on the new GFS: has it spewed out phantom storms like the old one, or has it (more similarly to the Euro) more often failed to see or underdeveloped storms prior to genesis?

So far I've noticed it has been toned down quite a bit in terms of blowing up random tropical waves, disturbances, and phantom storms like you'd expect from the CMC.

With that tropical wave the old-GFS was all over a few weeks ago the current GFS which was the GFS-P at the time showed little if any development at all. If anything yes it is very similar in ways to the Euro in underdeveloping some storms but it did also blow Cindy up into a hurricane trying to send it into the FL Panhandle so there's that.

[Hammy]

Question on the new GFS: has it spewed out phantom storms like the old one, or has it (more similarly to the Euro) more often failed to see or underdeveloped storms prior to genesis?

So far I've noticed it has been toned down quite a bit in terms of blowing up random tropical waves, disturbances, and phantom storms like you'd expect from the CMC.

With that tropical wave the old-GFS was all over a few weeks ago the current GFS which was the GFS-P at the time showed little if any development at all. If anything yes it is very similar in ways to the Euro in underdeveloping some storms but it did also blow Cindy up into a hurricane trying to send it into the FL Panhandle so there's that.

So it sounds like it's much closer to the Euro in general then--I've seen it blow up storms in the subtropics a few times (if it develops them).

[TheStormExpert]

Just like that the 00z GFS starts with development in the Tropical Atlantic in about a week proceeding the 18z GEFS Ensembles.

[Hurricaneman]

Just like that the 00z GFS starts with development in the Tropical Atlantic in about a week proceeding the 18z GEFS Ensembles.

Its from the wave in west Africa I believe, since the GFS has become more conservative I may add it in my forecast and may start a thread on it

[Kingarabian]

The GFS Parallels first test.

[AutoPenalti]

Still a bunch of SAL in the vicinity, don't think this will
amount to much.

Like kingarabian said, the new GFS is about to be tested. Let's see if it verifies, pretty excited.

[Kingarabian]

Still a bunch of SAL in the vicinity, don't think this will
amount to much.

Like kingarabian said, the new GFS is about to be tested. Let's see if it verifies, pretty excited.

Euro is rolling out and more importantly, it's ensembles in 2 more hours.

[WeatherHoon]

Both are showing development. However, it's in the long range. Not going to bite until we have an actual system to track. I doubt that just because the GFS was upgraded, it's somehow gained drastic accuracy @ >120hrs. Same goes for the Euro.

[Hammy]

Euro appears to be trending towards more favorable conditions around the first week of August based on the last several runs.

[Kingarabian]

EPS isn't showing much through 16 days, and nothing in regards to that MDR system.

[cycloneye]

Not so fast says 06z GFS on developing.

[Kingarabian]

Not so fast says 06z GFS on developing.

At least it only showed a ghost for 1 run. Let's hope it stays that way.

[abajan]

:lol:

https://twitter.com/edpiotrowski/status ... 1258811397

Don't be deceived by the blue sky and brilliant sunshine. Those are the current conditions in the eye of the phantom hurricane. Don't go to the beach. Stay indoors and brace for strong imaginary winds from the opposite direction!

[WeatherEmperor]

:lol:

https://twitter.com/edpiotrowski/status ... 1258811397

Don't be deceived by the blue sky and brilliant sunshine. Those are the current conditions in the eye of the phantom hurricane. Don't go to the beach. Stay indoors and brace for strong imaginary winds from the opposite direction!

You think you guys have it bad? Oh please. I am still recovering from this GFS storm. The insurance adjuster is supposed to come check my "damaged" house later this week.....




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[tarheelprogrammer]

:lol:

https://twitter.com/edpiotrowski/status ... 1258811397

Don't be deceived by the blue sky and brilliant sunshine. Those are the current conditions in the eye of the phantom hurricane. Don't go to the beach. Stay indoors and brace for strong imaginary winds from the opposite direction!

You think you guys have it bad? Oh please. I am still recovering from this GFS storm. The insurance adjuster is supposed to come check my "damaged" house later this week.....



I am sorry to hear that. I know it was only one run, but you guys will recover I am sure of it. #FloridaStrong


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[gatorcane]

The wave the models have been hinting at possible development has quite a spin and looks fairly impressive over Africa today. Loop below, speed up animation to see spin even better:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24